Conjoint Professor Gregory Carter

© 2017 The American Association of Suicidology Social influences on suicidal behaviors may be important but are less frequently studied than the influences of mental illness, physical illness, and demographic variables. Major international sporting events may have an impact on suicidal behaviors at the national and local level, an effect possibly mediated by gender and age. We examined the association of hospital-treated deliberate self-poisoning episodes (by gender and by age) in Tehran: before, during, and after the 2014 FIFA World Cup held in Brazil, in which the Iranian national team participated and was eliminated after the pool games. We used a time series analysis within an autoregressive integrated moving average model and found a significant increase in hospital-treated deliberate self-poisoning during the 4-week period of the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil in females but a nonsignificant increase in males. A significant increase was also seen in the youngest age group (12¿20¿years), but not in the two older age groups. If the effects of nonsuccess at major international sporting events could be shown to have a potential harmful effect on aggregate local or national rates of suicidal behaviors, the possibility of preventative interventions and preemptive additional service provision could be planned in advance of these events.

© 2017, Copyright © International Academy for Suicide Research. This study reports the outcomes, during follow-up, of a low-cost postcard intervention in a Randomized Control Trial of hospital-treated self-poisoning (n¿=¿2300). The intervention was 9 postcards over 12 months (plus usual treatment) versus usual treatment. Three binary endpoints at 12¿24 months (n¿=¿2001) were: any suicidal ideation, suicide attempt, or self-cutting. There was a significant reduction in any suicidal ideation (RRR 0.20 CI 95% 0.13¿0.27), (NNT 8, 6¿13), and any suicide attempt (RRR 0.31, 0.06¿0.50), (NNT 35, 19¿195), in this non-western population. However, there was no effect on self-cutting (RRR -0.01, -1.05¿0.51). Sustained, brief contact by mail may reduce some forms of suicidal behavior in self-poisoning patients during the post intervention phase.

© 2017 Elsevier B.V. Background The aim of this review was to assess whether suicide prevention provided in the primary health care setting and delivered by GPs results in fewer suicide deaths, episodes of self-harm, attempts and lower frequency of thoughts about suicide. Methods We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis using PRIMSA guidelines. Eligible studies: 1) evaluated an intervention provided by GPs; 2) assessed suicide, self-harm, attempted suicide or suicide ideation as outcomes, and; 3) used a quasi-experimental observational or trial design. Study specific effect sizes were combined using the random effects meta-analysis, with effects transformed into relative risk (RR). Results We extracted data from 14 studies for quantitative meta-analysis. The RR for suicide death in quasi-experimental observational studies comparing an intervention region against another region acting as a ¿control¿ was 1.26 (95% CI 0.58, 2.74). When suicide in the intervention region was compared before and after the GP program, the RR was 0.78 (95% CI 0.62, 0.97). There was no evidence of a treatment effect for GP training on rates of suicide death in one cRCT (RR 1.07, 95% CI 0.79, 1.45). There was no evidence of effect for the most other outcomes studied. Limitations All of the studies included in this review are likely to have a high level of bias. It is also possible that we excluded or missed relevant studies in our review process Conclusions Interventions have produced equivocal results, which varied by study design and outcome. Given these results, we cannot recommend the roll out of GP suicide prevention initiatives.

© 2016 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs Methamphetamine dependence is a growing problem in Australia and globally. Currently, there are no approved pharmacotherapy options for the management of methamphetamine dependence. N-acetylcysteine is one potential pharmacotherapy option. It has received growing attention as a therapy for managing addictions because of its capacity to restore homeostasis to brain glutamate systems disrupted in addiction and thereby reduce craving and the risk of relapse. N-acetylcysteine also has antioxidant properties that protect against methamphetamine-induced toxicity and it may therefore assist in the management of the neuropsychiatric and neurocognitive effects of methamphetamine. This commentary overviews the actions of N-acetylcysteine and evidence for its efficacy in treating addiction with a particular focus on its potential utility for methamphetamine dependence. We conclude that the preliminary evidence indicates a need for full-scale trials to definitively establish whether N-acetylcysteine has a therapeutic benefit and the nature of this benefit, for managing methamphetamine dependence. [McKetin R, Dean O, Baker A. L, Carter G, Turner A, Kelly P. J, Berk M. A potential role for N-acetylcysteine in the management of methamphetamine dependence. Drug Alcohol Rev 2017;36:153¿159].

© The Royal College of Psychiatrists 2017. Background Prediction of suicidal behaviour is an aspirational goal for clinicians and policy makers; with patients classified as 'high risk' to be preferentially allocated treatment. Clinical usefulness requires an adequate positive predictive value (PPV). Aims To identify studies of predictive instruments and to calculate PPV estimates for suicidal behaviours. Method A systematic review identified studies of predictive instruments. A series of meta-analyses produced pooled estimates of PPV for suicidal behaviours. Results For all scales combined, the pooled PPVs were: suicide 5.5% (95% CI 3.9-7.9%), self-harm 26.3% (95% CI 21.8-31.3%) and self-harm plus suicide 35.9% (95% CI 25.8-47.4%). Subanalyses on self-harm found pooled PPVs of 16.1% (95% CI 11.3-22.3%) for high-quality studies, 32.5% (95% CI 26.1-39.6%) for hospital-treated self-harm and 26.8% (95% CI 19.5-35.6%) for psychiatric in-patients. Conclusions No 'high-risk' classification was clinically useful. Prevalence imposes a ceiling on PPV. Treatment should reduce exposure to modifiable risk factors and offer effective interventions for selected subpopulations and unselected clinical populations.

© The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists 2015. Objective: There is a need for a simple and brief tool that can be used in routine clinical practice for the quantitative measurement of mental state across all diagnostic groups. The main utilities of such a tool would be to provide a global metric for the mental state examination, and to monitor the progression over time using this metric. Method: We developed the mental state examination scale (MSES), and used it in an acute inpatient setting in routine clinical work to test its initial feasibility. Results: Using a clinical case, the utility of MSES is demonstrated in this paper. When managing the patient described, the MSES assisted the clinician to assess the initial mental state, track the progress of the recovery, and make timely treatment decisions by quantifying the components of the mental state examination. Conclusion: MSES may enhance the quality of clinical practice for clinicians, and potentially serve as an index of universal mental healthcare outcome that can be used in clinical practice, service evaluation, and healthcare economics.

© The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of CINP. Background: Several recent trials indicate low-dose ketamine produces rapid antidepressant effects. However, uncertainty remains in several areas: dose response, consistency across patient groups, effects on suicidality, and possible biases arising from crossover trials. Methods: A systematic search was conducted for relevant randomized trials in Medline, Embase, and PsycINFO databases up to August 2014. The primary endpoints were change in depression scale scores at days 1, 3 and 7, remission, response, suicidality, safety, and tolerability. Data were independently abstracted by 2 reviewers. Where possible, unpublished data were obtained on treatment effects in the first period of crossover trials. Results: Nine trials were identified, including 201 patients (52% female, mean age 46 years). Six trials assessed low-dose ketamine (0.5mg/kg i.v.) and 3 tested very low-dose ketamine (one trial assessed 50mg intra-nasal spray, another assessed 0.1-0.4mg/kg i.v., and another assessed 0.1-0.5mg/kg i.v., intramuscular, or s.c.). At day 3, the reduction in depression severity score was less marked in the very low-dose trials (P homogeneity <.05) and among bipolar patients. In analyses excluding the second period of crossover trials, response rates at day 7 were increased with ketamine (relative risk 3.4, 95% CI 1.6-7.1, P=.001), as were remission rates (relative risk 2.6, CI 1.2-5.7, P=.02). The absolute benefits were large, with day 7 remission rates of 24% vs 6% (P=.02). Seven trials provided unpublished data on suicidality item scores, which were reduced on days 1 and 3 (both P<.01) but not day 7. Conclusion: Low-dose ketamine appears more effective than very low dose. There is substantial heterogeneity in clinical response, with remission among one-fifth of patients at 1 week but most others having benefits that are less durable. Larger, longer term parallel group trials are needed to determine if efficacy can be extended and to further assess safety.

© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. Background. Impaired health-related quality of life (HRQoL) post stroke is common, though prevalence estimates vary considerably. Few longitudinal studies explore post-stroke patterns of HRQoL and factors contributing to their change over time. Accurately identifying HRQoL after stroke is essential to understanding the extent of stroke effects. Objectives. This study aimed to assess change in levels of, and identify independent predictors of, HRQoL over the first 12-months post-stroke. Methods. Design. A prospective cohort study. Setting and participants. Community-dwelling stroke survivors in metropolitan Newcastle, New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Consecutively recruited stroke patients (n = 134) participated in face-to-face interviews at baseline, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months. Outcome measure. HRQoL (measured using the Assessment Quality-of-life).Independent measures. Physical and psycho-social functioning, including depression and anxiety (measured via Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale), disability (Modified Rankin Scale), social support (Multi-dimensional Scale Perceived Social Support) and community participation (Adelaide Activities Profile).Analyses. A linear mixed model was used to establish the predictors of, change in HRQoL over time. Results. On multivariable analysis, HRQOL did not change significantly with time post-stroke. Higher HRQoL scores were independently associated with higher baseline HRQoL (P = 0.03), younger age (P = 0.006), lower disability (P = 0.003), greater community participation (P = 0.001) and no history of depression (P = 0.03). Conclusion. These results contribute to an understanding of HRQoL in the first year post-stroke. Community participation and stroke-related disability are potentially modifiable risk factors affecting post-stroke HRQoL. Interventions aimed at addressing participation and disability post-stroke should be developed and tested.

© 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Purpose: The importance of distress identification and management in oncology has been established. We examined the relationship between distress and unmet bio-psychosocial needs, applying advanced statistical techniques, to identify which needs have the closest relationship to distress. Methods: Oncology outpatients (n¿=¿1066) undergoing QUICATOUCH screening in an Australian cancer centre completed the distress thermometer (DT) and problem list (PL). Principal component analysis (PCA), logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) analyses tested the relationship between DT score (at a cut-off point of 4) and PL items. Results: Sixteen items were reported by <5¿% of participants. PCA analysis identified four major components. Logistic regression analysis indicated three of these component scores, and four individual items (20 items in total) demonstrated a significant independent relationship with distress. The best CART model contained only two PL items: ¿worry¿ and ¿depression¿. Conclusions: The DT and PL function as intended, quantifying negative emotional experience (distress) and identifying bio-psychosocial sources of distress. We offer two suggestions to minimise PL response time whilst targeting PL items most related to distress, thereby increasing clinical utility. To identify patients who might require specialised psychological services, we suggest the DT followed by a short, case-finding instrument for patients over threshold on the DT. To identify other important sources of distress, we suggest using a modified PL of 14 key items, with the 15th item ¿any other problem¿ as a simple safety net question. Shorter times for patient completion and clinician response to endorsed PL items will maximise acceptance and clinical utility.

© 2016 The Author(s). Background: Brief Contact Interventions (BCIs) have been of increasing interest to suicide prevention clinicians, researchers and policy makers. However, there has been no systematic assessment into the mechanisms underpinning BCIs. The aim of the current paper is to provide a systematic review of the proposed mechanisms underpinning BCIs across trial studies. Method: A systematic review was conducted of trials using BCIs (post-discharge telephone contacts; emergency or crisis cards; and postcard or letter contacts) for suicide or self-harm. Following PRISMA guidelines, we searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the reference lists of all past reviews in the area. Secondary searches of reference lists were undertaken. Results: Sixteen papers provided a description of possible mechanisms which we grouped into three main areas: social support; suicide prevention literacy, and; learning alternative coping behaviours. After assessment of the studies and considering the plausibility of mechanisms, we suggest social support and improved suicide prevention literacy are the most likely mechanisms underpinning BCIs. Conclusion: Researchers need to better articulate and measure the mechanisms they believe underpin BCIs in trial studies. Understanding more about the mechanisms of BCIs' will inform the development of future interventions for self-harm and suicide.

© 2016 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists. Objective: To provide guidance for the organisation and delivery of clinical services and the clinical management of patients who deliberately self-harm, based on scientific evidence supplemented by expert clinical consensus and expressed as recommendations. Method: Articles and information were sourced from search engines including PubMed, EMBASE, MEDLINE and PsycINFO for several systematic reviews, which were supplemented by literature known to the deliberate self-harm working group, and from published systematic reviews and guidelines for deliberate self-harm. Information was reviewed by members of the deliberate self-harm working group, and findings were then formulated into consensus-based recommendations and clinical guidance. The guidelines were subjected to successive consultation and external review involving expert and clinical advisors, the public, key stakeholders, professional bodies and specialist groups with interest and expertise in deliberate self-harm. Results: The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists clinical practice guidelines for deliberate self-harm provide up-to-date guidance and advice regarding the management of deliberate self-harm patients, which is informed by evidence and clinical experience. The clinical practice guidelines for deliberate self-harm is intended for clinical use and service development by psychiatrists, psychologists, physicians and others with an interest in mental health care. Conclusion: The clinical practice guidelines for deliberate self-harm address self-harm within specific population sub-groups and provide up-to-date recommendations and guidance within an evidence-based framework, supplemented by expert clinical consensus.

Background There is growing interest in brief contact interventions for self-harm and suicide attempt. Aims To synthesise the evidence regarding the effectiveness of brief contact interventions for reducing self-harm, suicide attempt and suicide. Method A systematic review and random-effects meta-analyses were conducted of randomised controlled trials using brief contact interventions (telephone contacts; emergency or crisis cards; and postcard or letter contacts). Several sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine study quality and subgroup effects. Results We found 14 eligible studies overall, of which 12 were amenable to meta-analyses. For any subsequent episode of self-harm or suicide attempt, there was a non-significant reduction in the overall pooled odds ratio (OR) of 0.87 (95% CI 0.74-1.04, P = 0119) for intervention compared with control. The number of repetitions per person was significantly reduced in intervention v. control (incidence rate ratio IRR = 066, 95% CI 0.54-0.80, P<0001). There was no significant reduction in the odds of suicide in intervention compared with control (OR = 0.58, 95% CI 0.24-1.38). Conclusions A non-significant positive effect on repeated self-harm, suicide attempt and suicide and a significant effect on the number of episodes of repeated self-harm or suicide attempts per person (based on only three studies) means that brief contact interventions cannot yet be recommended for widespread clinical implementation. We recommend further assessment of possible benefits in well-designed trials in clinical populations.

Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Objective Many patients who experience distress do not seek help, and little is known about the reasons for this. We explored the reasons for declining help among patients who had significant emotional distress. Methods Data were collected through QUICATOUCH screening at an Australian hospital. Oncology outpatients scoring 4 or more on the Distress Thermometer were asked if they would 'like help' with their distress. Those who declined help were asked their reasons. Demographic variables and a clinical measure of anxiety and depression (PSYCH-6) were used to identify factors associated with reasons for declining help. Results Of 311 patients with significant distress, 221 (71%) declined help. The most common reasons were 'I prefer to manage myself' (n = 99, 46%); 'already receiving help' (n = 52, 24%) and 'my distress is not severe enough' (n = 50, 23%). Younger patients and women were more likely to decline help and were more likely to already be receiving help. Distress score and PSYCH-6 scores were significantly lower among patients who rated their distress as not severe enough to require help. Nevertheless, there were patients who had maximal scores on distress and PSYCH in each group. Conclusions Two common patient barriers to help with distress are a preference for self-help and a belief that distress is not sufficiently severe to warrant intervention. These beliefs were held by a sizeable proportion of individuals who reported very high levels of distress. Qualitative research and subsequent interventions for overcoming these barriers are required to obtain the most benefit from distress screening programs.

© 2015 Elsevier Inc. Objective: Hospital-treated deliberate self-poisoning (DSP) is common and the existing national monitoring systems are often deficient. Clinical Practice Guidelines (UK and Australia) recommend universal psychosocial assessment within the general hospital as standard care. We compared presentation rates, patient characteristics, psychosocial assessment and aftercare in UK and Australia. Methods: We used a cross sectional design, for a ten year study of all DSP presentations identified through sentinel units in Oxford, UK (n. = 3042) and Newcastle, Australia (n. = 3492). Results: Oxford had higher presentation rates for females (standardised rate ratio 2.4: CI 99% 1.9, 3.2) and males (SRR 2.5: CI 99% 1.7, 3.5). Female to male ratio was 1.6:1, 70% presented after-hours, 95% were admitted to a general hospital and co-ingestion of alcohol occurred in a substantial minority (Oxford 24%, Newcastle 32%). Paracetamol, minor tranquilisers and antidepressants were the commonest drug groups ingested, although the overall pattern differed. Psychosocial assessment rates were high (Oxford 80%, Newcastle 93%). Discharge referral for psychiatric inpatient admission (Oxford 8%, Newcastle 28%), discharge to home (Oxford 80%, Newcastle 70%) and absconding (Oxford 11%, Newcastle 2%) differed between the two units. Conclusions: Oxford has higher age-standardised rates of DSP than Newcastle, although many other characteristics of patients are similar. Services can provide a high level of assessment as recommended in clinical guidelines. There is some variation in after-care. Sentinel service monitoring routine care of DSP patients can provide valuable comparisons between countries.

© 2015 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved. Hospital-treated deliberate self-poisoning (DSP) by central nervous system depressant drugs (CNS-D) has been associated with impairments in cognitive and psychomotor functions at the time of discharge. We aimed to replicate this finding and to compare recovery in the first month after discharge for CNS-D and CNS nondepressant drug ingestions. We also examined a series of multivariate explanatory models of recovery of neurocognitive outcomes over time. The CNS-D group was impaired at discharge compared with the CNS-nondepressant group in cognitive flexibility, cognitive efficiency, and working memory. There were no significant differences at discharge in visual attention, processing speed, visuomotor speed, or inhibition speed. Both groups improved in the latter measures over 1 month of follow-up. However, the CNS-D group's recovery was significantly slower for key neurocognitive domains underlying driving in complex traffic situations, namely, cognitive flexibility, cognitive efficiency, and working memory. Patients discharged after DSP with CNS-D drugs have impairments of some critical cognitive functions that may require up to 1 month to recover. Although more pre-than post-DSP variables were retained as explanatory models of neurocognitive performance overall, recovery over time could not be explained by any one of the measured covariates. Tests of cognitive flexibility could be used in clinical settings as a proxy measure for recovery of driving ability. Regulatory authorities should also consider the implications of these results for the period of nondriving advised after ingestion of CNS-D in overdose. Future research, with adequate sample size, should examine contributions of other variables to the pattern of recovery over time.

© 2014 Elsevier Ltd. Background: Active Surveillance (AS) is recommended for the treatment of localised prostate cancer; however this option may be under-used, at least in part because of expectations of psychological adverse events in those offered or accepting AS. Objective: (1) Determine the impact on psychological wellbeing when treated with AS (non-comparative studies). (2) Compare AS with active treatments for the impact on psychological wellbeing (comparative studies). Method: We used the PRISMA guidelines and searched Medline, PsychInfo, EMBASE, CINHAL, Web of Science, Cochrane Library and Scopus for articles published January 2000-2014. Eligible studies reported original quantitative data on any measures of psychological wellbeing. Results: We identified 34 eligible articles (. n=. 12,497 individuals); 24 observational, eight RCTs, and two other interventional studies. Studies came from North America (16), Europe (14) Australia (3) and North America/Europe (1). A minority (5/34) were rated as high quality. Most (26/34) used validated instruments, whilst a substantial minority (14/34) used watchful waiting or no active treatment rather than Active Surveillance. There was modest evidence of no adverse impact on psychological wellbeing associated with Active Surveillance; and no differences in psychological wellbeing compared to active treatments. Conclusion: Patients can be informed that Active Surveillance involves no greater threat to their psychological wellbeing as part of the informed consent process, and clinicians need not limit access to Active Surveillance based on an expectation of adverse impacts on psychological wellbeing.

© JNCCN-Journal of the National Comprehensive Cancer Network. Background: The use of different depression self-report scales warrants co-calibration studies to establish relationships between scores from 2 or more scales. The goal of this study was to examine variations in measurement across 5 commonly used scales to measure depression among patients with cancer: Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale-Depression subscale (HADS-D), Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D), Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II), and Depression Anxiety and Stress Scale-Depression subscale (DASS-D). Methods: The depression scales were completed by 162 patients with cancer. Participants were also assessed by the major depressive episode module of the Structured Clinical Interview for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition. Rasch analysis and receiver operating characteristic curves were performed. Results: Rasch analysis of the 5 scales indicated that these all measured depression. The HADS and BDI-II had the widest measurement range, whereas the DASS-D had the narrowest range. Co-calibration revealed that the cutoff scores across the scales were not equivalent. The mild cutoff score on the PHQ-9 was easier to meet than the mild cutoff score on the CES-D, BDI-II, and DASS-D. The HADS-D possible cutoff score was equivalent to cutoff scores for major to severe depression on the other scales. Optimal cutoff scores for clinical assessment of depression were in the mild to moderate depression range for most scales. Conclusions: The labels of depression associated with the different scales are not equivalent. Most markedly, the HADS-D possible case cutoff score represents a much higher level of depression than equivalent scores on other scales. Therefore, use of different scales will lead to different estimates of prevalence of depression when used in the same sample.

© 2015 Beck et al. Background: The confidence with which researchers can comment on intervention efficacy relies on evaluation and consideration of intervention fidelity. Accordingly, there have been calls to increase the transparency with which fidelity methodology is reported. Despite this, consideration and/or reporting of fidelity methods remains poor. We seek to address this gap by describing the methodology for promoting and facilitating the evaluation of intervention fidelity in The EAT (Eating As Treatment) project: a multi-site stepped wedge randomised controlled trial of a dietitian delivered behaviour change counselling intervention to improve nutrition (primary outcome) in head and neck cancer patients undergoing radiotherapy. Methods/Design: In accordance with recommendations from the National Institutes of Health Behaviour Change Consortium Treatment Fidelity Workgroup, we sought to maximise fidelity in this stepped wedge randomised controlled trial via strategies implemented from study design through to provider training, intervention delivery and receipt. As the EAT intervention is designed to be incorporated into standard dietetic consultations, we also address unique challenges for translational research. Discussion: We offer a strong model for improving the quality of translational findings via real world application of National Institutes of Health Behaviour Change Consortium recommendations. Greater transparency in the reporting of behaviour change research is an important step in improving the progress and quality of behaviour change research. Trial registration number:ACTRN12613000320752(Date of registration 21 March 2013)

© 2015 The Authors. Purpose: There is evidence that social isolation is a risk factor for suicide, and that social connections are protective. Only a limited number of studies have attempted to correlate the number of social connections a person has in their life and suicidal behaviour. Method: Two population-based case-control studies of young adults (18-34 years) were conducted in New South Wales, Australia. Cases included both suicides (n=84) and attempts (n=101). Living controls selected from the general population were matched to cases by age-group and sex. Social connections was the main exposure variable (representing the number of connections a person had in their life). Suicide and attempts as outcomes were modelled separately and in combination using conditional logistic regression modelling. The analysis was adjusted for marital status, socio-economic status, and diagnosis of an affective or anxiety disorder. Results: Following adjustment for other variables, those who had 3-4 social connections had 74% lower odds of suicide deaths or attempts (OR=0.26, 95% CI 0.08, 0.84, p=0.025), and those with 5-6 connections had 89% lower odds of suicide deaths or attempts (OR=0.11 95% CI 0.03, 0.35, p<0.001), compared to those with 0-2 social connections. With the number of social connection types specified as a continuous variable, the odds ratio was 0.39 per connection (95% CI 0.27, 0.56, p<0.001). Conclusions: A greater number of social connections was significantly associated with reduced odds of suicide or attempt. This suggests that suicide prevention initiatives that promote increased social connections at an individual, familial, and wider social levels might be effective.

Copyright © 2014 by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. Background: Given the stable number of potential organ donors after brain death, donors after circulatory death have been an increasing source of organs procured for transplant. Among the most important considerations for donation after circulatory death (DCD) is the prediction that death will occur within a reasonable period of time after the withdrawal of cardiorespiratory support (WCRS). Accurate prediction of time to death is necessary for the procurement process. We aimed to develop simple predictive rules for death in less than 60 min and test the accuracy of these rules in a pool of potential DCD donors. Methods: A multicenter prospective longitudinal cohort design of DCD eligible patients (n=318), with the primary binary outcome being death in less than 60 min after withdrawal of cardiorespiratory support conducted in 28 accredited intensive care units (ICUs) in Australia. We used a random split-half method to produce two samples, first to develop the predictive classification rules and then to estimate accuracy in an independent sample. Results: The best classification model used only three simple classification rules to produce an overall efficiency of 0.79 (0.72-0.85), sensitivity of 0.82 (0.73-0.90), and a positive predictive value of 0.80 (0.70-0.87) in the independent sample. Using only intensive care unit specialist prediction (a single classification rule) produced comparable efficiency 0.80 (0.73-0.86), sensitivity 0.87 (0.78-0.93), and positive predictive value 0.78 (0.68-0.86). Conclusion: This best predictive model missed only 18% of all potential donors. A positive prediction would be incorrect on only 20% of occasions, meaning there is an acceptable level of lost opportunity costs involved in the unnecessary assembly of transplantation teams and theatres.

© 2014 Informa UK Ltd. Purpose: Few longitudinal studies explore post-stroke patterns of psychological morbidity and factors contributing to their change over time. We aimed to explore predictors of post-stroke depression (PSD) and post-stroke anxiety over a 12-month period. Methods: A prospective cohort study. Consecutively recruited stroke patients (n=134) participated in face-to-face interviews at baseline, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months. Primary outcome measures were depression and anxiety (measured via Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale). Independent variables included disability (Modified Rankin Scale), Quality-of-life (Assessment Quality-of-life), social support (Multi-dimensional Scale Perceived Social Support) and community participation (Adelaide Activities Profile (AAP)). Secondary outcomes were predictors of resolution and development of PSD and anxiety. Results: Anxiety (47%) was more common than depression (22%) at baseline. Anxiety (but not depression) scores improved over time. Anxiety post-stroke was positively associated with baseline PSD (p<0.0001), baseline anxiety (p<0.0001) and less disability (p=0.042). PSD was associated with baseline anxiety (p<0.0001), baseline depression (p=0.0057), low social support (p=0.0161) and low community participation (p<0.0001). The only baseline factor predicting the resolution of PSD (if depressed at baseline) was increased social support (p=0.0421). Factors that predicted the onset of depression (if not depressed at baseline) were low community participation (p=0.0015) and higher disability (p=0.0057). Conclusion: While more common than depression immediately post-stroke, anxiety attenuates while the burden of depression persists over 12 months. Clinical programs should assess anxiety and depression, provide treatment pathways for those identified, and address modifiable risk factors, especially social support and social engagement.Implications for RehabilitationPsychological distress post stroke is persisting.Multi-disciplinary teams that establish goals with patients promoting social and community engagement could assist in managing psychological morbidity.A shift towards promoting longer-term monitoring and management of stroke survivors must be undertaken, and should consider the factors that support and hinder psychological morbidity.