Dr Craig Dalton

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) burden is difficult to quantify with cases missed by surveillance systems. During COVID-19 Delta and Omicron BA.1¿5 periods, we assessed the COVID-19 burden in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, from May 2021¿July 2022 using a participatory surveillance system of self-reported respiratory disease and a database of people seeking healthcare. Methods: To estimate community illness burden, we adjusted the NSW age-stratified non-case population by reported severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) percent positive and acute respiratory illness (ARI) rates. Hospitalization and death burden were estimated by adjusting reported rates to the NSW population and by the proportion of COVID-19 admissions attributable to COVID-19 illness. Burden estimates were compared to reported case counts. Results: From May 2021¿July 2022, an estimated 3,450,516 (95%CI: 2,847,355¿4,119,472) symptomatic community ARI illnesses, 24,684 (95%CI: 20,714¿29,144) hospitalizations, and 4,638 (95% CI: 3,263¿6,049) deaths were attributable to COVID-19 in NSW. Reported cases (3,039,239) were 14% lower than the estimated symptomatic community illness burden but within the estimate's 95% confidence interval. Overall, 0.7% of symptomatic community illnesses resulted in hospitalization and 0.1% resulted in death. Conclusions: Estimated symptomatic case hospitalization and fatality risk could be used for COVID-19 modelling and forecasting.

Abstract: FluTracking provided evidence for an early, long, but moderate influenza season in the Australian community compared to prior years. Influenza-like illness (ILI) activity in 2019 peaked earlier (week ending 16 June) than any season on record in FluTracking data. ILI attack rates were above average early in the 2019 season (peak of 2.2%), and the duration of peak activity was longer than most prior years. However, ILI attack rates were lower than the five-year average in the latter half of the season. FluTracking participants reported higher vaccination coverage in 2019 (73.3%) compared with 2018 (65.7%), with the most notable increase in children aged less than five years (69.3% in 2019, compared to 55.6% in 2018). The total 2019 count of laboratory notifications (312,945) was higher than prior years (2007 onwards), and the peak weekly count of 18,429 notifications in 2019 was also higher than all prior years, except 2017. FluTracking makes a comparison to another surveillance system each year. The peak weekly percentage of calls to HealthDirect that were influenza-related was higher in 2019 (12.8%) than for 2014-2018 (range of 8.2-11.4% for peak week of activity each year). FluTracking participants reported a 2.5 times increase in influenza testing from 2018 to 2019 and a 1.5 times increase from 2017. Although 2019 was of higher activity and severity than 2018, Flutracking data indicates that 2019 was a lower activity and severity season than 2017, and notifications and influenza-related calls were heightened by increased community concern and testing.

Participatory surveillance (PS) has been defined as the bidirectional process of transmitting and receiving data for action by directly engaging the target population. Often represented as self-reported symptoms directly from the public, PS can provide evidence of an emerging disease or concentration of symptoms in certain areas, potentially identifying signs of an early outbreak. The construction of sets of symptoms to represent various disease syndromes provides a mechanism for the early detection of multiple health threats. Global Flu View (GFV) is the first-ever system that merges influenza-like illness (ILI) data from more than 8 countries plus 1 region (Hong Kong) on 4 continents for global monitoring of this annual health threat. GFV provides a digital ecosystem for spatial and temporal visualization of syndromic aggregates compatible with ILI from the various systems currently participating in GFV in near real time, updated weekly. In 2018, the first prototype of a digital platform to combine data from several ILI PS programs was created. At that time, the priority was to have a digital environment that brought together different programs through an application program interface, providing a real time map of syndromic trends that could demonstrate where and when ILI was spreading in various regions of the globe. After 2 years running as an experimental model and incorporating feedback from partner programs, GFV was restructured to empower the community of public health practitioners, data scientists, and researchers by providing an open data channel among these contributors for sharing experiences across the network. GFV was redesigned to serve not only as a data hub but also as a dynamic knowledge network around participatory ILI surveillance by providing knowledge exchange among programs. Connectivity between existing PS systems enables a network of cooperation and collaboration with great potential for continuous public health impact. The exchange of knowledge within this network is not limited only to health professionals and researchers but also provides an opportunity for the general public to have an active voice in the collective construction of health settings. The focus on preparing the next generation of epidemiologists will be of great importance to scale innovative approaches like PS. GFV provides a useful example of the value of globally integrated PS data to help reduce the risks and damages of the next pandemic.

Introduction: A record number of influenza outbreaks in aged care facilities (ACFs) in New South Wales (NSW) during 2017 provided an opportunity to measure the health impact of those outbreaks and assess the quality of routinely available surveillance data. Methods: Data for all ACF influenza outbreaks in NSW in 2017 were extracted from the Notifiable Conditions Information Management System. The numbers of outbreaks, residents with influenza-like illness (ILI), hospital admissions and deaths were assessed. For each outbreak the attack rate; duration; timeliness of notification; resident and staff influenza vaccination coverage; and antiviral use for treatment or prophylaxis were analysed. Data were considered for NSW in total and separately for seven of the state's local health districts. Data completeness was assessed for all available variables. Results: A total of 538 ACF outbreaks resulted in 7,613 residents with ILI, 793 hospitalisations and 338 deaths. NSW outbreaks had a median attack rate of 17% and median duration of eight days. Data completeness, which varied considerably between districts, limited the capacity to accurately consider some important epidemiological and policy issues. Discussion: Influenza outbreaks impose a major burden on the residents and staff of ACFs. Accurate assessment of the year-to-year incidence and severity of influenza outbreaks in these facilities is important for monitoring the effectiveness of outbreak prevention and management strategies. Some key data were incomplete and strategies to improve the quality of these data are needed, particularly for: the number of influenza-related deaths among residents; resident and staff vaccination coverage prior to outbreaks; and recorded use of antiviral prophylaxis.

Objectives and importance of study: Young children are at higher risk for serious influenza outcomes but, historically, Australian children aged less than 5 years have had low seasonal influenza vaccine uptake. In 2018, most Australian jurisdictions implemented funded influenza vaccine programs targeted at improving vaccine uptake in this age group. Our aim was to determine how successful these programs were at improving self-reported seasonal influenza vaccine uptake at the community level by comparing vaccination rates in each Australian jurisdiction before and after the introduction of funded vaccines for children aged 6 months to less than 5 years, as well as other age groups. Study type: Volunteer observational cohort study. Methods: Flutracking is an email-based surveillance tool for influenza-like illness that collects information about symptoms and influenza vaccination. We used historical data from 2014 to 2017 to estimate baseline vaccination status before funding of childhood influenza vaccines was introduced. We compared self-reported vaccine uptake in children younger than 5 years, children aged 5-17 years and adults (18-64 years, and 65 years and older) in 2018 and 2019 by state or territory. Mixed effects logistic regressions were used to measure the association between vaccination and a number of predictors, including whether the child was eligible for free vaccines, and whether adults resided with children or not. Results: We found large increases in vaccine uptake for children younger than 5 years in 2018 in all jurisdictions except Western Australia (where vaccines were already funded) and the Northern Territory (where funded vaccines were not introduced until 2019) that coincided with vaccine policy changes. Self-reported vaccination rates for young children in 2018 increased 2.7-4.2-fold in jurisdictions that funded the vaccine (compared with the previous, unfunded period). Being eligible for the funded vaccine was associated with much higher odds (odds ratio [OR] 4.75; 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.57, 4.79) of a young child being vaccinated. Older children and adults younger than 65 years were also more likely to receive the vaccine following policy changes. Conclusion: The seasonal influenza vaccine is an important protective measure for those at risk of serious outcomes, including young children. Flutracking data demonstrates that government-funded vaccines can lead to an almost five-fold increase in self-reported vaccine uptake of the targeted age group, as well as previously unreported flow-on effects to older children. This suggests that funded vaccines for young children may encourage caregivers to also vaccinate themselves and their older children.

Flutracking is a national online community influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance system that monitors weekly ILI activity and impact in the Australian community. This article reports on the 2015 findings from Flutracking. From 2014 to 2015 there was a 38.5% increase in participants to 27,824 completing at least 1 survey with a peak weekly response of 25,071 participants. The 2015 Flutracking national ILI weekly fever and cough percentages peaked in late August at 5.0% in the unvaccinated group, in the same week as the national counts of laboratory confirmed influenza peaked. A similar percentage of Flutracking participants took two or more days off from work or normal duties in 2015 (peak level 2.3%) compared with 2014 (peak level 2.5%) and the peak weekly percentage of participants seeking health advice was 1.6% in both 2014 and 2015. Flutracking fever and cough peaked in the same week as Influenza Complications Alert Network surveillance system influenza hospital admissions. The percentage of Flutracking participants aged 5 to 19 years with cough and fever in 2015 was the highest since 2011. The 2015 season was marked by a transition to predominantly influenza B strain circulation, which particularly affected younger age groups. However, for those aged 20 years and over, the 2015 national Flutracking influenza season was similar to 2014 in community ILI levels and impact.

Increased febrile reactions in Australian children from one influenza vaccine brand in 2010 diminished confidence in influenza immunisation, highlighting the need for improved vaccine safety surveillance. AusVaxSafety, a national vaccine safety surveillance system collected adverse events in young children for 2015 influenza vaccine brands in real time through parent/carer reports via SMS/email. Weekly cumulative data on 3,340 children demonstrated low rates of fever (4.4%) and medical attendance (1.1%). Fever was more frequent with concomitant vaccination.

Vaxtracker is a web based survey for active post marketing surveillance of Adverse Events Following Immunisation. It is designed to efficiently monitor vaccine safety of new vaccines by early signal detection of serious adverse events. The Vaxtracker system automates contact with the parents or carers of immunised children by email and/or sms message to their smart phone. A hyperlink on the email and text messages links to a web based survey exploring adverse events following the immunisation. The Vaxtracker concept was developed during 2011 (n= 21), and piloted during the 2012 (n= 200) and 2013 (n= 477) influenza seasons for children receiving inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) in the Hunter New England Local Health District, New South Wales, Australia. Survey results were reviewed by surveillance staff to detect any safety signals and compare adverse event frequencies among the different influenza vaccines administered. In 2012, 57% (n= 113) of the 200 participants responded to the online survey and 61% (290/477) in 2013. Vaxtracker appears to be an effective method for actively monitoring adverse events following influenza vaccination in children.

Flutracking is a national weekly online survey of influenza-like illness (ILI) completed by community members. Flutracking integrates participants' ILI symptom information with their influenza vaccination status to monitor influenza activity and field vaccine effectiveness (FVE). This report summarises results from the 2010 Flutracking season compared with previous seasons. Nationally, participation in Flutracking has more than doubled between 2008 and 2010, with 5,346 new participants enrolled or recruited in 2010 and a peak weekly participation of 10,773. By the end of the 2010 season, 5,904 of 9,109 (64.8%) participants had received the monovalent pandemic vaccine and/or the 2010 seasonal vaccine. From 2007 to 2010 FVE calculations demonstrated that the seasonal vaccine was effective except in 2009 during the pandemic. Peak 2010 ILI activity occurred in early June and August, and peak weekly 2010 ILI rates (4.2% among unvaccinated participants) were lower than the peak ILI rates during the 2009 pandemic (6.0% among unvaccinated participants). However, the decrease in laboratory notifications was much larger than the decrease in Flutracking rates. In summary, the number of Flutracking participants continued to steadily increase over the 2010 influenza season. The system has shown value in providing weekly vaccination uptake data during and beyond the 2009 influenza pandemic, as well as rapid FVE estimates that are qualitatively aligned with findings from other analyses of vaccine efficacy. Flutracking has also provided estimates of weekly community ILI activity that were not biased by health seeking behaviour and clinician testing practices.

We aimed to explore Campylobacter genotype-specific risk factors in Australia. Isolates collected prospectively from cases recruited into a case-control study were genotyped using flaA restriction fragment-length polymorphism typing ( flaA genotyping). Exposure information for cases and controls was collected by telephone interview. Risk factors were examined for major flaA genotypes using logistic and multinomial regression. Five flaA genotypes accounted for 325 of 590 (55%) cases - flaA-6b (n=129), flaA-6 (n=70), flaA-10 (n=48), flaA-2 (n=43), flaA-131 (n=35). In Australia, infections due to flaA-10 and flaA-2 were found to be significantly associated with eating non-poultry meat (beef and ham, respectively) in both case-control and inter-genotype comparisons. All major genotypes apart from flaA-10 were associated with chicken consumption in the case-control comparisons. Based on several clinical criteria, infections due to flaA-2 were more severe than those due to other genotypes. Thus genotype analysis may reveal genotype-specific niches and differences in virulence and transmission routes. © 2008 Cambridge University Press.

Aims: Multilocus sequence typing (MLST) was used to examine the diversity and population structure of Campylobacter jejuni isolates associated with sporadic cases of gastroenteritis in Australia, and to compare these isolates with those from elsewhere. Methods and Results: A total of 153 Camp. jejuni isolates were genotyped. Forty sequence types (STs) were found, 19 of which were previously undescribed and 21 identified in other countries. The 19 newly described STs accounted for 43% of isolates, 16 of which were assigned to known clonal complexes. Eighty-eight percent of isolates were assigned to a total of 15 clonal complexes. Of these, four clonal complexes accounted for 60% of isolates. Three STs accounted for nearly 40% of all isolates and appeared to be endemic, while 21 STs were represented by more than one isolate. Seven infections were acquired during international travel, and the associated isolates all had different STs, three of which were exclusive to the travel-acquired cases. Comparison of serotypes among isolates from clonal complexes revealed further diversity. Eight serotypes were identified among isolates from more than one clonal complex, while isolates from six clonal complexes displayed serotypes not previously associated with those clonal complexes. Conclusions: Multilocus sequence typing is a useful tool for the discrimination of subtypes and examination of the population structure of Camp. jejuni associated with sporadic infections. Significance and Impact of the Study: This study highlights the genotypic diversity of Camp. jejuni in Australia, demonstrating that STs causing disease have both a global and a local distribution evident from the typing of domestically and internationally acquired Camp. jejuni isolates. © 2007 The Authors.

Multilocus sequence typing (MLST) has provided important new insights into the population structure of Campylobacter jejuni and is rapidly becoming the gold standard for typing this species. However, the methodology is comparatively costly and slow to perform for the routine surveillance testing of large numbers of isolates required by public health laboratories. Restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis of the flaA gene (RELP-flaA) and sequencing of the variable region in the fla locus (SVR-fla) were compared to MLST to determine if a low cost alternative could be found that reliably predicts clonal lineage (as determined by MLST). An isolate of C. jejuni from each of 153 patients from New South Wales, Australia, collected sequentially over a period of 30 months from 1999 to 2001 and comprising 40 sequence types (ST) from 15 clonal complexes (CC) was examined. Of 15 CC, 12 were represented by more than one isolate and a predominant RFLP-flaA type was found for 10 (83%). Of these, seven (70%) correctly predicted the predominant MLST CC with a probability of >0.8. Of 40 STs detected, 19 were reported for the first time, 9 of which were represented by more than one isolate. Eight of these were represented by a single RFLP-flaA type. Only two of eight major SVR-fla types were able to predict CC with a probability of >0.8, indicating that flaA-RFLP is a more reliable predictor of CC than SVR-fla and thus offers an alternative to MLST for use in routine surveillance. Copyright © 2007, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

In order to identify subtyping methods able to contribute to the surveillance or investigation of Australian Campylobacter infection, six genotypic and three phenotypic subtyping methods were evaluated on a collection of 84 clinical isolates collected over a 30-month period from one region in Australia. The aim was to compare the logistics of various subtyping methods and examine their ability to assist in finding outbreaks or common sources of sporadic infection. The genotypic subtyping methods used were sequencing of the short variable region of the flaA gene, two methods using restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) of the flaA gene using either DdeI or EcoRI with PstI, automated ribotyping, pulsed field gel electrophoresis and multilocus sequence typing. The phenotypic methods employed included Laboratory of Enteric Pathogens serotyping, Lior biotyping and antibiotic resistotyping. The level of agreement between subtyping results was determined. Phenotypic methods showed little agreement whereas genotypic typing methods showed a high level of agreement. Using the premise that five of the six genotypic typing methods were in agreement 15 genotypic groupings were identified. Sequencing of the short variable region of the flaA gene, RFLP of the flaA gene or automated ribotyping in conjunction with multilocus sequence typing best identified genotypic groupings. An alternative combination of RFLP of the flaA gene followed by ribotyping was equally satisfactory. RFLP of the flaA gene appeared to be suitable as a preliminary typing method based on ease of operation, equipment availability and cost. © 2006 Cambridge University Press.

Pandemic influenza planning presents challenges for both government and businesses. Effective cooperation and communication before and during a pandemic will help mitigate the major threats to societal function. The major challenges for government include communicating a realistic estimate of pandemic risk, managing community anxiety, communicating the need for rationing of vaccines and antiviral medications, setting standards for preparedness, and gaining the trust of essential service workers. For businesses the challenges are tailoring generic planning guides to local use, and making links with local and regional partners in pandemic planning.

Between 27 January and 7 February 2002, 12 cases of Salmonella Potsdam infection were notified to NSW Health of which nine were residents of the Hunter Health Area. Interviews with two cases notified by two local doctors initiated the investigation and revealed exposure to foods from the same restaurant (restaurant A). All New South Wales S. Potsdam cases, those accompanying cases to restaurant A and people from restaurant A booking lists were interviewed. Of the 34 people interviewed, 17 met the case definition. The epidemiological investigation did not detect a food source of S. Potsdam infection, however, shell egg-based Caesar salad dressing and mayonnaise, and a swab of a cap from a mayonnaise bottle collected at restaurant A tested positive for S. Potsdam. Environmental and laying hen feed samples from the egg supplier to restaurant A and meat meal, (the major component of laying hen feed) tested positive for various Salmonella serotypes. The investigation identified problems of inadequate cleaning, time-temperature abuse, and ignorance of the hazardous nature of raw shell eggs at the restaurant level, poor sanitation and a lack of hygiene inspections at the egg production level, and problems with cleaning, storage and lack of bacterial monitoring of final product at the animal rendering plant. Investigation of 12 notified cases of Salmonella resulted in public health interventions, which likely prevented further cases of foodborne disease due to Salmonella and other pathogens in the Hunter Health Area and elsewhere in New South Wales.