Employment

Employment

The 3-month moving average of employment grew strongly in the lead up to July 2023, with 11,500 full-time jobs added in the Hunter Valley region in the previous 6 months. The Hunter Valley region added 1,010 full-time jobs in July 2023, down from 3,600 jobs in April 2023. Employment statistics are collected at the Statistical Area Level 4, including the SA4s of 'Hunter Valley excluding Newcastle', and 'Newcastle and Lake Macquarie', but excluding the Mid-Coast LGA which is classified in the Mid North Coast SA4 region.

Employment grew by 7.7% over the year to July, well above jobs growth for NSW which was also strong at 4.2%. The region’s growth rate was slightly down compared to a year prior. Part-time employment was even stronger, with a 21% growth in the 12 months to July in the Hunter. This corresponded to a 39% reduction in the number of unemployed.

At the state level, part-time growth was much more moderated, dropping from an annual growth of 12% at the end of 2022, to a growth of 0.5% for the 12 months to July 2023. Although GDP growth has moderated nationally and internationally, employment has continued to expand. However, recent data on hiring intentions and vacancies suggests that future job growth may slow.

Data source: ABS Labour Force, Australia, Detailed.

Unemployment

The Hunter Valley’s unemployment rate has continued to plunge since the highs reached in COVID. The 3-month moving average shows unemployment is now at 2.4% as of July 2023, down from 4.5% in July 2022. This figure is slightly less than the NSW-wide rate of 3.0% in July 2023, which has also only slightly declined in the last twelve months (down from 3.9%).

The decline in the unemployment rate is partly driven by the increasing labour force participation rates over the period. That is, more people are seeking employment. The region’s youth unemployment rate has also seen record lows, with the unemployment rate for July 2023 at 2.9%. This figure is now below the NSW-wide rate of 3.7%.

Historically, a key challenge for policymakers is to achieve a low rate of unemployment without fuelling excessive increases in wages growth and inflation. Economists call the lowest rate of unemployment that achieves this the ‘non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment’ or NAIRU. Current estimates are that this rate is roughly 5% in Australia. These values are expressed with a 3-month moving average.

Data source: ABS Labour Force, Australia, Detailed.

The last 12 months of data show that the Hunter is trending towards significantly lower levels of unemployment than the NSW average. The Upper Hunter has seen large decreases in unemployment, higher than the Hunter average.

Data source: ABS Labour Force, Australia, Detailed.

Employment - by industry

Long-term trends in employment show strong growth in service sector jobs, especially health and social services in the Hunter Region. The trends reveal a decline in industries historically central to the region’s identity, such as manufacturing and agriculture. In contrast, the number of mining jobs has still grown over the last two decades, reflecting the industry’s expansion.

Although short-term fluctuations occur, the long-term trend indicates a significant transformation in the region’s employment landscape. The below employment data is measured in full-time equivalents (FTE). FTE represent the combined workload of full-time and part-time employees as if they were all working full-time.

Data source: ABS Labour Force, Australia, Detailed.

The last 3 months of data (Feb - May 2023) present a mixed picture, with earlier growths in mining and manufacturing jobs now showing declines. Professional and financial services saw the largest declines in the service sector whereas public services, health and education saw large increases. Interestingly, given the national economic data on consumption, the region’s retail trade and hospitality sectors saw large increases in employment of circa 3% in a quarter.

Data source: ABS Labour Force, Australia, Detailed.