National Economy

National economy

Trends: National economic growth has moderated but remains positive, with through-the-year growth of +2.5% to the March quarter 2026.

Latest: In the March quarter 2026, Australia’s GDP grew by +0.3%, slowing from a stronger +0.9% in the December quarter 2025. With population still growing, this points to subdued growth on a per-capita basis. Annual growth was +2.5% (chain volume measures).

Data source: ABS Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product.

At the national level, Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data shows a quarterly rise in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of +0.3% for the March quarter 2026. This is a step down from the previous quarter’s rise of +0.9% and leaves the 12-month rate of growth at +2.5% (chain volume measures). The slower quarter was driven by net trade rather than weak domestic demand: net trade subtracted 0.8 percentage points from growth, even as private investment rose strongly. On a per-capita basis, GDP fell 0.1% in the quarter (up 1.0% over the year).

Key themes from the ABS Australian National Accounts, March quarter 2026 release:

• Household consumption rose 0.5% in the quarter (2.5% through the year) and added 0.3 percentage points to growth. The household saving ratio fell to 6.2%, from 7.0% in the previous quarter, partly reflecting the unwinding of energy bill relief.
• Government final consumption fell 0.2%, as the end of energy bill rebates reduced social-benefit spending, partly offset by higher defence expenditure; public investment rose 0.9%.
• Private investment rose 3.6% and was the largest single contributor to growth (+0.7 percentage points), led by a 16.3% surge in machinery and equipment as data-centre investment ramped up across New South Wales and Victoria. Dwelling investment rose modestly (0.7%).
• Net trade subtracted 0.8 percentage points from growth, with exports down 1.1% and imports up 2.1%.
• Mining gross value added fell 1.5%, with coal output down 8.1%, partly offset by a 2.4% rise in iron ore mining.

See ABS for more info.

Data source: ABS Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product.

Business performance

The NAB Group Economics monthly survey gives a read on business activity in NSW, and by extension regions like the Hunter. To May 2026, the survey put business conditions in NSW at around +2 (compared with around +3 nationally), while business confidence was around -16 in NSW and around -14 nationally. Conditions reflect current trading, while confidence is more forward-looking and tends to move faster with global developments.

Across key sectors relevant to the Hunter, NAB survey evidence points to a sharp split between weak confidence and still-positive conditions. The standout development has been a steep fall in business confidence — in NSW, nationally and globally — driven by the shock of the US–Iran conflict, which disrupted energy markets and global trade before a ceasefire was reached in June 2026. Confidence dropped to deeply negative levels, with sentiment weak across effectively all industries. Business conditions, by contrast, have continued to fluctuate but remain in positive territory, indicating that current trading is holding up even as firms turn cautious about the outlook. For the Hunter, mining (including coal) remains the main area of caution, with restrained investment and hiring intentions, while transport, logistics and utilities continue to benefit from steady bulk-export and infrastructure demand, and construction and business services operate with elevated capacity utilisation and labour constraints.

Data source: NAB Group Economics

Household spending

The ABS Monthly Household Spending Indicator shows household spending continuing to grow, up around +4.9% in current prices over the year to April 2026. In NSW, spending growth has been led by services, with food spending also higher, while spending on alcohol and tobacco has fallen. Discretionary expenditure has been supported by recreation and culture and by miscellaneous goods and services.

The consumer price index rose +4.2% over the year to April 2026. Inflation has picked up over recent months and sits above the Reserve Bank’s 2 to 3 per cent target band, having moved up from the low-3 per cent range through 2025.

Data source: ABS Monthly consumer price index indicator

The ABS publishes specific price data on housing-related expenses to give better insight (at the national level) into the price movements of purchases, rents and other expenses. Rents are still rising, while new dwelling prices have risen more modestly. Electricity prices have moved higher as various state and federal rebates have unwound.