Employment

Employment

The Hunter region (see below and footnotes for region definitions) experienced a significant increase in job opportunities between 2022 and early 2023, but the trend has since reversed. The region reached its peak employment of 262,800 jobs in September 2023. Since September, over 11,000 jobs have been shed, 7,300 of which were shed in December alone. In contrast, employment for the whole of NSW saw a small dip from July to October reverse in November and December. In terms of year-on-year growth, the Hunter saw a 0.5% growth in employment in the last 12 months, compared to a 4.4% growth in the 12 months prior. Part-time employment has declined faster than full-time employment with a 6.3% decline in 2023. Note that for the Hunter, employment statistics are collected at the Statistical Area Level 4 (SA4), including the SA4s of ‘Hunter Valley excluding Newcastle’, and ‘Newcastle and Lake Macquarie’, but excluding the Mid-Coast LGA which is classified in the Mid North Coast SA4 region. Hence data for the Hunter Region in this section excludes the Mid-Coast LGA.

Data source: ABS Labour Force, Australia, Detailed

Unemployment

Data source: ABS Labour Force, Australia, Detailed.

Interestingly, whilst the number of jobs has decreased in recent months in the Hunter region, this is not reflected by an increase in unemployment. The latest data for end of 2023 shows a lower rate of unemployment than September 2023, with the Hunter recording an unemployment rate of 2.8% in December 2023, Newcastle and Lake Macquarie a rate of 2.5%, the rest of the Hunter a rate of 3.1% and NSW a rate of 3.3%. These rates compare to a notional figure of circa 4.5% for the ‘non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment’ or NAIRU. Unemployment rates far away from the NAIRU are expected to help fuel wages growth and inflation. Note that the values expressed here are with a 3-month moving average.

Data source: ABS Labour Force, Australia, Detailed.

Employment - by industry

The last half of 2023 saw further declines in employment in some of the traditional industries, with agriculture, forestry and fishing reducing 800 full time equivalent employees (FTEs), manufacturing down 1600 FTEs and utilities down 1000 FTEs. In contrast, mining saw an increase of 2300 FTEs, and construction an increase of 600 FTEs. In the increasingly important service sector for the region, large swings were evident, with hospitality, retail and wholesale trade putting on a combined 6100 FTEs, likely recovering from lay-offs post COVID. The professional services sector saw declines in many industries, whilst public services (including education and health) saw large increases. Interestingly, a lot of these changes are consistent with what we saw in the early part of 2023.

Data source: ABS Labour Force, Australia, Detailed.