Prof Emeritus John Forbes

Genome-wide association studies have identified breast cancer risk variants in over 150 genomic regions, but the mechanisms underlying risk remain largely unknown. These regions were explored by combining association analysis with in silico genomic feature annotations. We defined 205 independent risk-associated signals with the set of credible causal variants in each one. In parallel, we used a Bayesian approach (PAINTOR) that combines genetic association, linkage disequilibrium and enriched genomic features to determine variants with high posterior probabilities of being causal. Potentially causal variants were significantly over-represented in active gene regulatory regions and transcription factor binding sites. We applied our INQUSIT pipeline for prioritizing genes as targets of those potentially causal variants, using gene expression (expression quantitative trait loci), chromatin interaction and functional annotations. Known cancer drivers, transcription factors and genes in the developmental, apoptosis, immune system and DNA integrity checkpoint gene ontology pathways were over-represented among the highest-confidence target genes.

Background: Increasing the dose intensity of cytotoxic therapy by shortening the intervals between cycles, or by giving individual drugs sequentially at full dose rather than in lower-dose concurrent treatment schedules, might enhance efficacy. Methods: To clarify the relative benefits and risks of dose-intense and standard-schedule chemotherapy in early breast cancer, we did an individual patient-level meta-analysis of trials comparing 2-weekly versus standard 3-weekly schedules, and of trials comparing sequential versus concurrent administration of anthracycline and taxane chemotherapy. The primary outcomes were recurrence and breast cancer mortality. Standard intention-to-treat log-rank analyses, stratified by age, nodal status, and trial, yielded dose-intense versus standard-schedule first-event rate ratios (RRs). Findings: Individual patient data were provided for 26 of 33 relevant trials identified, comprising 37 298 (93%) of 40 070 women randomised. Most women were aged younger than 70 years and had node-positive disease. Total cytotoxic drug usage was broadly comparable in the two treatment arms; colony-stimulating factor was generally used in the more dose-intense arm. Combining data from all 26 trials, fewer breast cancer recurrences were seen with dose-intense than with standard-schedule chemotherapy (10-year recurrence risk 28·0% vs 31·4%; RR 0·86, 95% CI 0·82¿0·89; p<0·0001). 10-year breast cancer mortality was similarly reduced (18·9% vs 21·3%; RR 0·87, 95% CI 0·83¿0·92; p<0·0001), as was all-cause mortality (22·1% vs 24·8%; RR 0·87, 95% CI 0·83¿0·91; p<0·0001). Death without recurrence was, if anything, lower with dose-intense than with standard-schedule chemotherapy (10-year risk 4·1% vs 4·6%; RR 0·88, 95% CI 0·78¿0·99; p=0·034). Recurrence reductions were similar in the seven trials (n=10 004) that compared 2-weekly chemotherapy with the same chemotherapy given 3-weekly (10-year risk 24·0% vs 28·3%; RR 0·83, 95% CI 0·76¿0·91; p<0·0001), in the six trials (n=11 028) of sequential versus concurrent anthracycline plus taxane chemotherapy (28·1% vs 31·3%; RR 0·87, 95% CI 0·80¿0·94; p=0·0006), and in the six trials (n=6532) testing both shorter intervals and sequential administration (30·4% vs 35·0%; RR 0·82, 95% CI 0·74¿0·90; p<0·0001). The proportional reductions in recurrence with dose-intense chemotherapy were similar and highly significant (p<0·0001) in oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive and ER-negative disease and did not differ significantly by other patient or tumour characteristics. Interpretation: Increasing the dose intensity of adjuvant chemotherapy by shortening the interval between treatment cycles, or by giving individual drugs sequentially rather than giving the same drugs concurrently, moderately reduces the 10-year risk of recurrence and death from breast cancer without increasing mortality from other causes. Funding: Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council.

Stratification of women according to their risk of breast cancer based on polygenic risk scores (PRSs) could improve screening and prevention strategies. Our aim was to develop PRSs, optimized for prediction of estrogen receptor (ER)-specific disease, from the largest available genome-wide association dataset and to empirically validate the PRSs in prospective studies. The development dataset comprised 94,075 case subjects and 75,017 control subjects of European ancestry from 69 studies, divided into training and validation sets. Samples were genotyped using genome-wide arrays, and single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were selected by stepwise regression or lasso penalized regression. The best performing PRSs were validated in an independent test set comprising 11,428 case subjects and 18,323 control subjects from 10 prospective studies and 190,040 women from UK Biobank (3,215 incident breast cancers). For the best PRSs (313 SNPs), the odds ratio for overall disease per 1 standard deviation in ten prospective studies was 1.61 (95%CI: 1.57¿1.65) with area under receiver-operator curve (AUC) = 0.630 (95%CI: 0.628¿0.651). The lifetime risk of overall breast cancer in the top centile of the PRSs was 32.6%. Compared with women in the middle quintile, those in the highest 1% of risk had 4.37- and 2.78-fold risks, and those in the lowest 1% of risk had 0.16- and 0.27-fold risks, of developing ER-positive and ER-negative disease, respectively. Goodness-of-fit tests indicated that this PRS was well calibrated and predicts disease risk accurately in the tails of the distribution. This PRS is a powerful and reliable predictor of breast cancer risk that may improve breast cancer prevention programs.

Purpose: The separate impacts of dose and dose intensity of chemotherapy for metastatic breast cancer remain uncertain. The primary objective of this trial was to compare a short, high-dose, intensive course of epirubicin and cyclophosphamide (EC) with a longer conventional dose regimen delivering the same total dose of chemotherapy. Methods: This open label trial randomised 235 women with metastatic breast cancer to receive either high-dose epirubicin 150¿mg/m2 and cyclophosphamide 1500¿mg/m2 with filgrastim support every 3 weeks for 3 cycles (HDEC) or standard dose epirubicin 75¿mg/m2 and cyclophosphamide 750¿mg/m2 every 3 weeks for 6 cycles (SDEC). Primary outcomes were time to progression, overall survival and quality of life. Results: In 118 patients allocated HDEC 90% of the planned dose was delivered, compared to 96% in the 117 participants allocated SDEC. There were no significant differences in the time to disease progression (5.7 vs. 5.8 months, P = 0.19) or overall survival (14.5 vs. 16.5 months, P = 0.29) between HDEC and SDEC, respectively. Patients on HDEC reported worse quality of life during therapy, but scores improved after completion to approximate those reported by patients allocated SDEC. Objective tumour response was recorded in 33 (28%) on HDEC and 42 patients (36%) on SDEC. HDEC produced more haematologic toxicity. Conclusion: For women with metastatic breast cancer, disease progression, survival or quality of life were no better with high-dose intensity compared to standard dose EC chemotherapy. Australian Clinical Trials Registry registration number ACTRN12605000478617.

Mendelian-like inheritance of germline DNA methylation in cancer susceptibility genes has been previously reported. We aimed to scan the genome for heritable methylation marks associated with breast cancer susceptibility by studying 25 Australian multiple-case breast cancer families. Here we report genome-wide DNA methylation measured in 210 peripheral blood DNA samples provided by family members using the Infinium HumanMethylation450. We develop and apply a new statistical method to identify heritable methylation marks based on complex segregation analysis. We estimate carrier probabilities for the 1000 most heritable methylation marks based on family structure, and we use Cox proportional hazards survival analysis to identify 24 methylation marks with corresponding carrier probabilities significantly associated with breast cancer. We replicate an association with breast cancer risk for four of the 24 marks using an independent nested case-control study. Here, we report a novel approach for identifying heritable DNA methylation marks associated with breast cancer risk.

Background: We previously reported the 5-year results of the phase 3 IBCSG 23-01 trial comparing disease-free survival in patients with breast cancer with one or more micrometastatic (=2 mm) sentinel nodes randomly assigned to either axillary dissection or no axillary dissection. The results showed no difference in disease-free survival between the groups and showed non-inferiority of no axillary dissection relative to axillary dissection. The current analysis presents the results of the study after a median follow-up of 9·7 years (IQR 7·8¿12·7). Methods: In this multicentre, randomised, controlled, open-label, non-inferiority, phase 3 trial, participants were recruited from 27 hospitals and cancer centres in nine countries. Eligible women could be of any age with clinical, mammographic, ultrasonographic, or pathological diagnosis of breast cancer with largest lesion diameter of 5 cm or smaller, and one or more metastatic sentinel nodes, all of which were 2 mm or smaller and with no extracapsular extension. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) before surgery (mastectomy or breast-conserving surgery) to no axillary dissection or axillary dissection using permuted blocks generated by a web-based congruence algorithm, with stratification by centre and menopausal status. The protocol-specified primary endpoint was disease-free survival, analysed in the intention-to-treat population (as randomly assigned). Safety was assessed in all randomly assigned patients who received their allocated treatment (as treated). We did a one-sided test for non-inferiority of no axillary dissection by comparing the observed hazard ratios (HRs) for disease-free survival with a margin of 1·25. This 10-year follow-up analysis was not prespecified in the trial's protocol and thus was not adjusted for multiple, sequential testing. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00072293. Findings: Between April 1, 2001, and Feb 8, 2010, 6681 patients were screened and 934 randomly assigned to no axillary dissection (n=469) or axillary dissection (n=465). Three patients were ineligible and were excluded from the trial after randomisation. Disease-free survival at 10 years was 76·8% (95% CI 72·5¿81·0) in the no axillary dissection group, compared with 74·9% (70·5¿79·3) in the axillary dissection group (HR 0·85, 95% CI 0·65¿1·11; log-rank p=0·24; p=0·0024 for non-inferiority). Long-term surgical complications included lymphoedema of any grade in 16 (4%) of 453 patients in the no axillary dissection group and 60 (13%) of 447 in the axillary dissection group, sensory neuropathy of any grade in 57 (13%) in the no axillary dissection group versus 85 (19%) in the axillary dissection group, and motor neuropathy of any grade (14 [3%] in the no axillary dissection group vs 40 [9%] in the axillary dissection group). One serious adverse event (postoperative infection and inflamed axilla requiring hospital admission) was attributed to axillary dissection; the event resolved without sequelae. Interpretation: The findings of the IBCSG 23-01 trial after a median follow-up of 9·7 years (IQR 7·8¿12·7) corroborate those obtained at 5 years and are consistent with those of the 10-year follow-up analysis of the Z0011 trial. Together, these findings support the current practice of not doing an axillary dissection when the tumour burden in the sentinel nodes is minimal or moderate in patients with early breast cancer. Funding: International Breast Cancer Study Group.

Background A meta-analysis of the effects of HER2 status, specifically within the first 2¿3 years of adjuvant endocrine therapy, has the potential to inform patient selection for upfront aromatase inhibitor (AI) therapy or switching strategy tamoxifen followed by AI. The pre-existing standardisation of methodology for HER2 (immunohistochemistry/fluorescence in situ hybridization) facilitates analysis of existing data for this key marker. Methods Following a prospectively designed statistical analysis plan, patient data from 3 phase III trials Arimidex, Tamoxifen, Alone or in Combination Trial (ATAC), Breast International Group (BIG) 1-98 and Tamoxifen Exemestane Adjuvant Multicentre Trial (TEAM)] comparing an AI to tamoxifen during the first 2¿3 years of adjuvant endocrine treatment were collected and a treatment-by-marker analysis of distant recurrence-free interval-censored at 2¿3 years treatment ¿ for HER2 status¿×¿AI versus tamoxifen treatment was performed to address the clinical question relating to efficacy of 'upfront' versus 'switch' strategies for AIs. Results A prospectively planned, patient-level data meta-analysis across 3 trials demonstrated a significant treatment (AI versus tamoxifen) by marker (HER2) interaction in a multivariate analysis; (interaction hazard ratio [HR]¿=¿1.61, 95% CI 1.01¿2.57; p¿<¿0.05). Heterogeneity between trials did not reach statistical significance. The HER2 negative (HER2-ve) group gained greater benefit from AI versus tamoxifen (HR¿=¿0.70, 95% CI 0.56¿0.87) than the HER2-positive (HER2+ve) group (HR¿=¿1.13, 95% CI 0.75¿1.71). However, the small number of HER2+ve cases (n¿=¿1092 across the 3 trials) and distant recurrences (n¿=¿111) may explain heterogeneity between trials. Conclusions A patient-level data meta-analysis demonstrated a significant interaction between HER2 status and treatment with AI versus tamoxifen in the first 2¿3 years of adjuvant endocrine therapy. Patients with HER2-ve cancers experienced improved outcomes (distant relapse) when treated with upfront AI rather than tamoxifen, whilst patients with HER2+ve cancers fared no better or slightly worse in the first 2¿3 years. However, the small number of HER2+ve cancers/events may explain a large degree of heterogeneity in the HER2+ve groups across all 3 trials. Other causes, perhaps related to subtle differences between AIs, cannot be excluded and warrant further exploration.

Breast cancer risk is influenced by rare coding variants in susceptibility genes, such as BRCA1, and many common, mostly non-coding variants. However, much of the genetic contribution to breast cancer risk remains unknown. Here we report the results of a genome-wide association study of breast cancer in 122,977 cases and 105,974 controls of European ancestry and 14,068 cases and 13,104 controls of East Asian ancestry. We identified 65 new loci that are associated with overall breast cancer risk at P < 5 × 10-8. The majority of credible risk single-nucleotide polymorphisms in these loci fall in distal regulatory elements, and by integrating in silico data to predict target genes in breast cells at each locus, we demonstrate a strong overlap between candidate target genes and somatic driver genes in breast tumours. We also find that heritability of breast cancer due to all single-nucleotide polymorphisms in regulatory features was 2-5-fold enriched relative to the genome-wide average, with strong enrichment for particular transcription factor binding sites. These results provide further insight into genetic susceptibility to breast cancer and will improve the use of genetic risk scores for individualized screening and prevention.

Background: Despite the effectiveness of adjuvant endocrine therapy in preventing breast cancer recurrence, breast cancer events continue at a high rate for at least 10 years after completion of therapy. Patients and methods: This randomised open label phase III trial recruited postmenopausal women from 29 Australian and New Zealand sites, with hormone receptor-positive early breast cancer, who had completed =4 years of endocrine therapy [aromatase inhibitor (AI), tamoxifen, ovarian suppression, or sequential combination] =1 year prior, to oral letrozole 2.5 mg daily for 5 years, or observation. Treatment allocation was by central computerised randomisation, stratified by institution, axillary node status and prior endocrine therapy. The primary outcome was invasive breast cancer events (new invasive primary, local, regional or distant recurrence, or contralateral breast cancer), analysed by intention to treat. The secondary outcomes were disease-free survival (DFS), overall survival, and safety. Results: Between 16 May 2007 and 14 March 2012, 181 patients were randomised to letrozole and 179 to observation (median age 64.3 years). Endocrine therapy was completed at a median of 2.6 years before randomisation, and 47.5% had tumours of >2 cm and/or node positive. At 3.9 years median follow-up (interquartile range 3.1- 4.8), 2 patients assigned letrozole (1.1%) and 17 patients assigned observation (9.5%) had experienced an invasive breast cancer event (difference 8.4%, 95% confidence interval 3.8% to 13.0%, log-rank test P = 0.0004). Twenty-four patients (13.4%) in the observation and 14 (7.7%) in the letrozole arm experienced a DFS event (log-rank P = 0.067). Adverse events linked to oestrogen depletion, but not serious adverse events, were more common with letrozole. Conclusion: These results should be considered exploratory, but lend weight to emerging data supporting longer duration endocrine therapy for hormone receptor-positive breast cancer, and offer insight into reintroduction of AI therapy.

Purpose: Predicting the pattern of recurrence can aid in the development of targeted surveillance and treatment strategies. We identified patient populations that remain at risk for an event at a median follow-up of 24 years from the diagnosis of operable breast cancer. Patients and Methods: International Breast Cancer Study Group clinical trials I to V randomly assigned 4,105 patients between 1978 and 1985. Annualized hazards were estimated for breast cancer-free interval (primary end point), disease-free survival, and overall survival. Results: For the entire group, the annualized hazard of recurrence was highest during the first 5 years (10.4%), with a peak between years 1 and 2 (15.2%). During the first 5 years, patients with estrogen receptor (ER) - positive disease had a lower annualized hazard compared with those with ERnegative disease (9.9% v 11.5%; P = .01). However, beyond 5 years, patients with ER-positive disease had higher hazards (5 to 10 years: 5.4% v 3.3%; 10 to 15 years: 2.9% v 1.3%; 15 to 20 years: 2.8% v 1.2%; and 20 to 25 years: 1.3% v 1.4%; P < .001). Among patients with ER-positive disease, annualized hazards of recurrence remained elevated and fairly stable beyond 10 years, even for those with no axillary involvement (2.0%, 2.1%, and 1.1% for years 10 to 15, 15 to 20, and 20 to 25, respectively) and for those with one to three positive nodes (3.0%, 3.5%, and 1.5%, respectively). Conclusion: Patients with ER-positive breast cancer maintain a significant recurrence rate during extended follow up. Strategies for follow up and treatments to prevent recurrences may be most efficiently applied and studied in patients with ER-positive disease followed for a long period of time.

Background: Aromatase inhibitor induced musculoskeletal syndrome is experienced by approximately half of women taking aromatase inhibitors, impairing quality of life and leading some to discontinue treatment. Evidence for effective treatments is lacking. We aimed to understand the manifestations and impact of this syndrome in the Australian breast cancer community, and strategies used for its management. Methods: A survey invitation was sent to 2390 members of the Breast Cancer Network Australia Review and Survey Group in April 2014. The online questionnaire included 45 questions covering demographics, aromatase inhibitor use, clinical manifestations and risk factors for the aromatase inhibitor musculoskeletal syndrome, reasons for treatment discontinuation and efficacy of interventions used. Results: Aromatase inhibitor induced musculoskeletal syndrome was reported by 302 (82¿%) of 370 respondents. Twenty-seven percent had discontinued treatment for any reason and of these, 68¿% discontinued because of the musculoskeletal syndrome. Eighty-one percent had used at least one intervention from the following three categories to manage the syndrome: doctor prescribed medications, over-the-counter/complementary medicines or alternative/non-drug therapies. Anti-inflammatories, paracetamol (acetaminophen) and yoga were most successful in relieving symptoms in each of the respective categories. Almost a third of respondents reported that one or more interventions helped prevent aromatase inhibitor discontinuation. However, approximately 20¿% of respondents found no intervention effective in any category. Conclusion: We conclude that aromatase inhibitor induced musculoskeletal syndrome is a significant issue for Australian women and is an important reason for treatment discontinuation. Women use a variety of interventions to manage this syndrome; however, their efficacy appears limited.

Purpose. Carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) occurs when the median nerve is compressed at the wrist in the carpal tunnel. It has been suggested that hormonal risk factors may be involved in the pathogenesis of CTS, and a higher incidence of CTS has been reported in randomized clinical trials with aromatase inhibitors (AIs) compared with tamoxifen. Patients and Methods. This was an exploratory analysis of the International Breast Cancer Intervention Study II, a doubleblind randomized clinical trial in which women at increased risk of breast cancer were randomly assigned to receive anastrozole or placebo. This is the first report of risk factors for and characteristics of CTS in women taking an AI in a placebo-controlled trial. Results. Overall, 96 participants with CTS were observed: 65 (3.4%) in the anastrozole arm and 31 (1.6%) in the placebo arm (odds ratio, 2.16 [1.40 to 3.33]; P < .001). Ten participants were reported as having severe CTS, of which eight were taking anastrozole (P = .08). Eighteen women (0.9%) in the anastrozole arm and six women (0.3%) in the placebo arm reported surgical intervention, which was significantly different (odds ratio, 3.06 [1.21 to 7.72], P = .018). Six women discontinued with the allocated treatment because of the onset of CTS. Apart from treatment allocation, a high body mass index and an a prior report of musculoskeletal symptoms after trial entry were the only other risk factors for CTS identified in these postmenopausal women. Conclusions. The use of anastrozole was associated with a higher incidence of CTS but few participants required surgery. Further investigations are warranted into the risk factors and treatment of AI-induced CTS.

Background Third-generation aromatase inhibitors are more effective than tamoxifen for preventing recurrence in postmenopausal women with hormone-receptor-positive invasive breast cancer. However, it is not known whether anastrozole is more effective than tamoxifen for women with hormone-receptor-positive ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). Here, we compare the efficacy of anastrozole with that of tamoxifen in postmenopausal women with hormone-receptor-positive DCIS. Methods In a double-blind, multicentre, randomised placebo-controlled trial, we recruited women who had been diagnosed with locally excised, hormone-receptor-positive DCIS. Eligible women were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio by central computer allocation to receive 1 mg oral anastrozole or 20 mg oral tamoxifen every day for 5 years. Randomisation was stratified by major centre or hub and was done in blocks (six, eight, or ten). All trial personnel, participants, and clinicians were masked to treatment allocation and only the trial statistician had access to treatment allocation. The primary endpoint was all recurrence, including recurrent DCIS and new contralateral tumours. All analyses were done on a modified intention-to-treat basis (in all women who were randomised and did not revoke consent for their data to be included) and proportional hazard models were used to compute hazard ratios and corresponding confidence intervals. This trial is registered at the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN37546358. Results Between March 3, 2003, and Feb 8, 2012, we enrolled 2980 postmenopausal women from 236 centres in 14 countries and randomly assigned them to receive anastrozole (1449 analysed) or tamoxifen (1489 analysed). Median follow-up was 7·2 years (IQR 5·6-8·9), and 144 breast cancer recurrences were recorded. We noted no statistically significant difference in overall recurrence (67 recurrences for anastrozole vs 77 for tamoxifen; HR 0·89 [95% CI 0·64-1·23]). The non-inferiority of anastrozole was established (upper 95% CI <1·25), but its superiority to tamoxifen was not (p=0·49). A total of 69 deaths were recorded (33 for anastrozole vs 36 for tamoxifen; HR 0·93 [95% CI 0·58-1·50], p=0·78), and no specific cause was more common in one group than the other. The number of women reporting any adverse event was similar between anastrozole (1323 women, 91%) and tamoxifen (1379 women, 93%); the side-effect profiles of the two drugs differed, with more fractures, musculoskeletal events, hypercholesterolaemia, and strokes with anastrozole and more muscle spasm, gynaecological cancers and symptoms, vasomotor symptoms, and deep vein thromboses with tamoxifen. Conclusions No clear efficacy differences were seen between the two treatments. Anastrozole offers another treatment option for postmenopausal women with hormone-receptor-positive DCIS, which may be be more appropriate for some women with contraindications for tamoxifen. Longer follow-up will be necessary to fully evaluate treatment differences. Funding Cancer Research UK, National Health and Medical Research Council Australia, Breast Cancer Research Fund, AstraZeneca, Sanofi Aventis.

Background:To examine the effect on cognitive function of adjuvant ovarian function suppression (OFS) for breast cancer.Methods:The Suppression of Ovarian Function (SOFT) trial randomised premenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer to 5 years adjuvant endocrine therapy with tamoxifen+OFS, exemestane+OFS or tamoxifen alone. The Co-SOFT substudy assessed objective cognitive function and patient reported outcomes at randomisation (T0), and 1 year later (T1); the primary endpoint was change in global cognitive function, measured by the composite objective cognitive function score. Data were compared for the pooled tamoxifen+OFS and exemestane+OFS groups vs the tamoxifen alone group using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test.Results:Of 86 participants, 74 underwent both T0 and T1 cognitive testing; 54 randomised to OFS+ either tamoxifen (28) or exemestane (26) and 20 randomised to tamoxifen alone. There was no significant difference in the changes in the composite cognitive function scores between the OFS+ tamoxifen or exemestane groups and the tamoxifen group (mean±s.d.,-0.21±0.92 vs-0.04±0.49, respectively, P=0.71, effect size=-0.20), regardless of prior chemotherapy status, and adjusting for baseline characteristics.Conclusions:The Co-SOFT study, although limited by small samples size, provides no evidence that adding OFS to adjuvant oral endocrine therapy substantially affects global cognitive function.

Purpose To investigate adherence to endocrine treatment and its relationship with disease-free survival (DFS) in the Breast International Group (BIG) 1-98 clinical trial. Methods The BIG 1-98 trial is a double-blind trial that randomly assigned 6,193 postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive early breast cancer in the four-arm option to 5 years of tamoxifen (Tam), letrozole (Let), or the agents in sequence (Let-Tam, Tam-Let). This analysis included 6,144 women who received at least one dose of study treatment. Conditional landmark analyses and marginal structural Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the relationship between DFS and treatment adherence (persistence [duration] and compliance with dosage). Competing risks regression was used to assess demographic, disease, and treatment characteristics of the women who stopped treatment early because of adverse events. Results Both aspects of low adherence (early cessation of letrozole and a compliance score of , 90%) were associated with reduced DFS (multivariable model hazard ratio, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.93; P = .01; and multivariable model hazard ratio, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.08 to 2.38; P = .02, respectively). Sequential treatments were associated with higher rates of nonpersistence (Tam-Let, 20.8%; Let-Tam, 20.3%; Tam 16.9%; Let 17.6%). Adverse events were the reason for most trial treatment early discontinuations (82.7%). Apart from sequential treatment assignment, reduced adherence was associated with older age, smoking, node negativity, or prior thromboembolic event. Conclusion Both persistence and compliance are associated with DFS. Toxicity management and, for sequential treatments, patient and physician awareness, may improve adherence.

Triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) is the most aggressive breast cancer subtype with the worst prognosis and no targeted treatments. TNBC patients are more likely to develop metastases and relapse than patients with other breast cancer subtypes. We aimed to identify TNBC-specific genes and genes associated with lymph node metastasis, one of the first signs of metastatic spread. A total of 33 TNBCs were used; 17 of which had matched normal adjacent tissues available, and 15 with matched lymph node metastases. Gene expression microarray analysis was used to reveal genes that were differentially expressed between these groups. We identified and validated 66 genes that are significantly altered when comparing tumours to normal adjacent samples. Further, we identified 83 genes that are associated with lymph node metastasis and correlated these with miRNA-expression. Pathway analysis revealed their involvement in DNA repair, recombination and cell death, chromosomal instability and other known cancer-related pathways. Finally, four genes were identified that were specific for TNBC, of which one was associated with overall survival. This study has identified novel genes involved in LN metastases in TNBC and genes that are TNBC specific that may be used as treatment targets or prognostic indicators in the future.

BACKGROUND Ovarian failure is a common toxic effect of chemotherapy. Studies of the use of gonadotropin- releasing hormone (GnRH) agonists to protect ovarian function have shown mixed results and lack data on pregnancy outcomes. METHODS We randomly assigned 257 premenopausal women with operable hormone-receptor- negative breast cancer to receive standard chemotherapy with the GnRH agonist goserelin (goserelin group) or standard chemotherapy without goserelin (chemotherapy- alone group). The primary study end point was the rate of ovarian failure at 2 years, with ovarian failure defined as the absence of menses in the preceding 6 months and levels of follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) in the postmenopausal range. Rates were compared with the use of conditional logistic regression. Secondary end points included pregnancy outcomes and disease-free and overall survival. RESULTS At baseline, 218 patients were eligible and could be evaluated. Among 135 with complete primary end-point data, the ovarian failure rate was 8% in the goserelin group and 22% in the chemotherapy-alone group (odds ratio, 0.30; 95% confidence interval, 0.09 to 0.97; two-sided P = 0.04). Owing to missing primary end-point data, sensitivity analyses were performed, and the results were consistent with the main findings. Missing data did not differ according to treatment group or according to the stratification factors of age and planned chemotherapy regimen. Among the 218 patients who could be evaluated, pregnancy occurred in more women in the goserelin group than in the chemotherapy-alone group (21% vs. 11%, P = 0.03); women in the goserelin group also had improved disease-free survival (P = 0.04) and overall survival (P = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS Although missing data weaken interpretation of the findings, administration of goserelin with chemotherapy appeared to protect against ovarian failure, reducing the risk of early menopause and improving prospects for fertility.

The 14th St Gallen International Breast Cancer Conference (2015) reviewed substantial new evidence on locoregional and systemic therapies for early breast cancer. Further experience has supported the adequacy of tumor margins defined as 'no ink on invasive tumor or DCIS' and the safety of omitting axillary dissection in specific cohorts. Radiotherapy trials support irradiation of regional nodes in node-positive disease. Considering subdivisions within luminal disease, the Panel was more concerned with indications for the use of specific therapies, rather than surrogate identification of intrinsic subtypes as measured by multiparameter molecular tests. For the treatment of HER2-positive disease in patients with node-negative cancers up to 1 cm, the Panel endorsed a simplified regimen comprising paclitaxel and trastuzumab without anthracycline as adjuvant therapy. For premenopausal patients with endocrine responsive disease, the Panel endorsed the role of ovarian function suppression with either tamoxifen or exemestane for patients at higher risk. The Panel noted the value of an LHRH agonist given during chemotherapy for premenopausal women with ER-negative disease in protecting against premature ovarian failure and preserving fertility. The Panel noted increasing evidence for the prognostic value of commonly used multiparameter molecular markers, some of which also carried prognostic information for late relapse. The Panel noted that the results of such tests, where available, were frequently used to assist decisions about the inclusion of cytotoxic chemotherapy in the treatment of patients with luminal disease, but noted that threshold values had not been established for this purpose for any of these tests. Multiparameter molecular assays are expensive and therefore unavailable in much of the world. The majority of new breast cancer cases and breast cancer deaths now occur in less developed regions of the world. In these areas, less expensive pathology tests may provide valuable information. The Panel recommendations on treatment are not intended to apply to all patients, but rather to establish norms appropriate for the majority. Again, economic considerations may require that less expensive and only marginally less effective therapies may be necessary in less resourced areas. Panel recommendations do not imply unanimous agreement among Panel members. Indeed, very few of the 200 questions received 100% agreement from the Panel. In the text below, wording is intended to convey the strength of Panel support for each recommendation, while details of Panel voting on each question are available in supplementary Appendix S2, available at Annals of Oncology online.

Background: Four previously published randomised clinical trials have shown that tamoxifen can reduce the risk of breast cancer in healthy women at increased risk of breast cancer in the first 10 years of follow-up. We report the long-term follow-up of the IBIS-I trial, in which the participants and investigators remain largely masked to treatment allocation. Methods: In the IBIS-I randomised controlled trial, premenopausal and postmenopausal women 35-70 years of age deemed to be at an increased risk of developing breast cancer were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive oral tamoxifen 20 mg daily or matching placebo for 5 years. Patients were randomly assigned to the two treatment groups by telephone or fax according to a block randomisation schedule (permuted block sizes of six or ten). Patients and investigators were masked to treatment assignment by use of central randomisation and coded drug supply. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of breast cancer (invasive breast cancer and ductal carcinoma in situ), analysed by intention to treat. Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess breast cancer occurrence and mortality. The trial is closed to recruitment and active treatment is completed, but long-term follow-up is ongoing. This trial is registered with controlledtrials.com, number ISRCTN91879928. Findings: Between April 14, 1992, and March 30, 2001, 7154 eligible women recruited from genetics clinics and breast care clinics in eight countries were enrolled into the IBIS-I trial and were randomly allocated to the two treatment groups: 3579 to tamoxifen and 3575 to placebo. After a median follow up of 16·0 years (IQR 14·1-17·6), 601 breast cancers have been reported (251 [7·0%] in 3579 patients in the tamoxifen group vs 350 [9·8%] in 3575 women in the placebo group; hazard ratio [HR] 0·71 [95% CI 0·60-0·83], p<0·0001). The risk of developing breast cancer was similar between years 0-10 (226 [6·3%] in 3575 women in the placebo group vs 163 [4·6%] in 3579 women in the tamoxifen group; hazard ratio [HR] 0·72 [95% CI 0·59-0·88], p=0·001) and after 10 years (124 [3·8%] in 3295 women vs 88 [2·6%] in 3343, respectively; HR 0·69 [0·53-0·91], p=0·009). The greatest reduction in risk was seen in invasive oestrogen receptor-positive breast cancer (HR 0·66 [95% CI 0·54-0·81], p<0·0001) and ductal carcinoma in situ (0·65 [0·43-1·00], p=0·05), but no effect was noted for invasive oestrogen receptor-negative breast cancer (HR 1·05 [95% CI 0·71-1·57], p=0·8). Interpretation: These results show that tamoxifen offers a very long period of protection after treatment cessation, and thus substantially improves the benefit-to-harm ratio of the drug for breast cancer prevention.

Background:Decision aids may improve informed consent in clinical trial recruitment, but have not been evaluated in this context. This study investigated whether decision aids (DAs) can reduce decisional difficulties among women considering participation in the International Breast Cancer Intervention Study-II (IBIS-II) trial. Methods:The IBIS-II trial investigated breast cancer prevention with anastrazole in two cohorts: women with increased risk (Prevention), and women treated for ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). Australia, New Zealand and United Kingdom participants were randomised to receive a DA (DA group) or standard trial consent materials (control group). Questionnaires were completed after deciding about participation in IBIS-II (post decision) and 3 months later (follow-up). Results:Data from 112 Prevention and 34 DCIS participants were analysed post decision (73 DA; 73 control); 95 Prevention and 24 DCIS participants were analysed at follow-up (58 DA; 61 control). There was no effect on the primary outcome of decisional conflict. The DCIS-DA group had higher knowledge post decision, and the Prevention-DA group had lower decisional regret at follow-up. Conclusions:This was the first study to evaluate a DA in the clinical trial setting. The results suggest DAs can potentially increase knowledge and reduce decisional regret about clinical trial participation.British Journal of Cancer advance online publication, 3 June 2014; doi:10.1038/bjc.2014.144 www.bjcancer.com.

There may be a relationship between the incidence of vasomotor and arthralgia/myalgia symptoms and treatment outcomes for postmenopausal breast cancer patients with endocrine-responsive disease who received adjuvant letrozole or tamoxifen. Data on patients randomized into the monotherapy arms of the BIG 1-98 clinical trial who did not have either vasomotor or arthralgia/myalgia/carpal tunnel (AMC) symptoms reported at baseline, started protocol treatment and were alive and disease-free at the 3-month landmark (n = 4,798) and at the 12-month landmark (n = 4,682) were used for this report. Cohorts of patients with vasomotor symptoms, AMC symptoms, neither, or both were defined at both 3 and 12 months from randomization. Landmark analyses were performed for disease-free survival (DFS) and for breast cancer free interval (BCFI), using regression analysis to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI). Median follow-up was 7.0 years. Reporting of AMC symptoms was associated with better outcome for both the 3- and 12-month landmark analyses [e.g., 12-month landmark, HR (95 % CI) for DFS = 0.65 (0.49-0.87), and for BCFI = 0.70 (0.49-0.99)]. By contrast, reporting of vasomotor symptoms was less clearly associated with DFS [12-month DFS HR (95 % CI) = 0.82 (0.70-0.96)] and BCFI (12-month DFS HR (95 % CI) = 0.97 (0.80-1.18). Interaction tests indicated no effect of treatment group on associations between symptoms and outcomes. While reporting of AMC symptoms was clearly associated with better DFS and BCFI, the association between vasomotor symptoms and outcome was less clear, especially with respect to breast cancer-related events. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Background: Breast cancer is the most common malignancy that develops in women, responsible for the highest cancer-associated death rates. Triple negative breast cancers represent an important subtype that have an aggressive clinical phenotype, are associated with a higher likelihood of metastasis and are not responsive to current targeted therapies. miRNAs have emerged as an attractive candidate for molecular biomarkers and treatment targets in breast cancer, but their role in the progression of triple negative breast cancer remains largely unexplored.Methods: This study has investigated miRNA expression profiles in 31 primary triple negative breast cancer cases and in 13 matched lymph node metastases compared with 23 matched normal breast tissues to determine miRNAs associated with the initiation of this disease subtype and those associated with its metastasis.Results: 71 miRNAs were differentially expressed in triple negative breast cancer, the majority of which have previously been associated with breast cancer, including members of the miR-200 family and the miR-17-92 oncogenic cluster, suggesting that the majority of miRNAs involved in the initiation of triple negative breast cancer are not subtype specific. However, the repertoire of miRNAs expressed in lymph node negative and lymph node positive triple negative breast cancers were largely distinct from one another. In particular, miRNA profiles associated with lymph node negative disease tended to be up-regulated, while those associated with lymph node positive disease were down-regulated and largely overlapped with the profiles of their matched lymph node metastases. From this, 27 miRNAs were identified that are associated with metastatic capability in the triple negative breast cancer subtype.Conclusions: These results provide novel insight into the repertoire of miRNAs that contribute to the initiation of and progression to lymph node metastasis in triple negative breast cancer and have important implications for the treatment of this breast cancer subtype. © 2014 Avery-Kiejda et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

The 13th St Gallen International Breast Cancer Conference (2013) Expert Panel reviewed and endorsed substantial new evidence on aspects of the local and regional therapies for early breast cancer, supporting less extensive surgery to the axilla and shorter durations of radiation therapy. It refined its earlier approach to the classification and management of luminal disease in the absence of amplification or overexpression of the Human Epidermal growth factor Receptor 2 (HER2) oncogene, while retaining essentially unchanged recommendations for the systemic adjuvant therapy of HER2-positive and 'triple-negative' disease. The Panel again accepted that conventional clinico-pathological factors provided a surrogate subtype classification, while noting that in those areas of the world where multi-gene molecular assays are readily available many clinicians prefer to base chemotherapy decisions for patients with luminal disease on these genomic results rather than the surrogate subtype definitions. Several multi-gene molecular assays were recognized as providing accurate and reproducible prognostic information, and in some cases prediction of response to chemotherapy. Cost and availability preclude their application in many environments at the present time. Broad treatment recommendations are presented. Such recommendations do not imply that each Panel member agrees: indeed, among more than 100 questions, only one (trastuzumab duration) commanded 100% agreement. The various recommendations in fact carried differing degrees of support, as reflected in the nuanced wording of the text below and in the votes recorded in supplementary Appendix S1, available at Annals of Oncology online. Detailed decisions on treatment will as always involve clinical consideration of disease extent, host factors, patient preferences and social and economic constraints. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved.