Dr Frank Tuyl
Honorary Lecturer
School of Information and Physical Sciences (Data Science and Statistics)
- Email:frank.tuyl@newcastle.edu.au
- Phone:(02) 4921 8854
Career Summary
Biography
Dr Tuyl is a lecturer in the School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences. He has a PhD in Statistics, and has published and presented at conferences in the field of Bayesian methods and applications. Dr Tuyl also has more than 20 years of statistical and operations research consulting experience in manufacturing, information technology, academia and health sectors, with demonstrated skills in a large variety of statistical and operations research techniques.
Research ExpertiseApplied Statistics, Biostatistics, Statistical Theory
Qualifications
- PhD, University of Newcastle
Keywords
- Applied Statistics
- Biostatistics
- Statistical Theory
Publications
For publications that are currently unpublished or in-press, details are shown in italics.
Journal article (25 outputs)
Year | Citation | Altmetrics | Link | ||||||||
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2019 |
Tuyl F, Howley P, 'Bayesian Benefits for Binomial Applications in Practice', Journal of Education, Society and Behavioural Science, 31 1-9 (2019) [C1]
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Nova | |||||||||
2019 |
Tuyl F, 'A Method to Handle Zero Counts in the Multinomial Model', AMERICAN STATISTICIAN, 73 151-158 (2019) [C1]
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Nova | |||||||||
2018 | Lin Y, Howley P, Tuyl F, 'A Posterior Predictive Model-Based Control Chart for Monitoring Healthcare', World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology International Journal of Electrical and Information Engineering, 12 793-797 (2018) [C1] | Nova | |||||||||
2017 |
Tuyl FA, 'A note on priors for the multinomial model', American Statistician, 71 298-301 (2017) [C1]
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Nova | |||||||||
2016 | Tuyl FA, Howley PP, 'Simplifying Life Through Bayes: Hints for Practitioners New to Bayesian Inference', Quality Management Journal, 23 22-28 (2016) [C1] | Nova | |||||||||
2016 |
Tuyl FA, Gerlach R, Mengersen K, 'Consensus priors for multinomial and binomial ratios', Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice, 10 736-754 (2016) [C1]
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Nova | |||||||||
2015 |
Bilano V, Gilmour S, Moffiet T, D'Espaignet ET, Stevens GA, Commar A, et al., 'Global trends and projections for tobacco use, 1990-2025: An analysis of smoking indicators from the WHO Comprehensive Information Systems for Tobacco Control', The Lancet, 385 966-976 (2015) [C1] Background Countries have agreed on reduction targets for tobacco smoking stipulated in the WHO global monitoring framework, for achievement by 2025. In an analysis of data for to... [more] Background Countries have agreed on reduction targets for tobacco smoking stipulated in the WHO global monitoring framework, for achievement by 2025. In an analysis of data for tobacco smoking prevalence from nationally representative survey data, we aimed to provide comprehensive estimates of recent trends in tobacco smoking, projections for future tobacco smoking, and country-level estimates of probabilities of achieving tobacco smoking targets. Methods We used a Bayesian hierarchical meta-regression modelling approach using data from the WHO Comprehensive Information Systems for Tobacco Control to assess trends from 1990 to 2010 and made projections up to 2025 for current tobacco smoking, daily tobacco smoking, current cigarette smoking, and daily cigarette smoking for 173 countries for men and 178 countries for women. Modelling was implemented in Python with DisMod-MR and PyMC. We estimated trends in country-specific prevalence of tobacco use, projections for future tobacco use, and probabilities for decreased tobacco use, increased tobacco use, and achievement of targets for tobacco control from posterior distributions. Findings During the most recent decade (2000-10), the prevalence of tobacco smoking in men fell in 125 (72%) countries, and in women fell in 156 (88%) countries. If these trends continue, only 37 (21%) countries are on track to achieve their targets for men and 88 (49%) are on track for women, and there would be an estimated 1·1 billion current tobacco smokers (95% credible interval 700 million to 1·6 billion) in 2025. Rapid increases are predicted in Africa for men and in the eastern Mediterranean for both men and women, suggesting the need for enhanced measures for tobacco control in these regions. Interpretation Our findings show that striking between-country disparities in tobacco use would persist in 2025, with many countries not on track to achieve tobacco control targets and several low-income and middle-income countries at risk of worsening tobacco epidemics if these trends remain unchanged. Immediate, effective, and sustained action is necessary to attain and maintain desirable trajectories for tobacco control and achieve global convergence towards elimination of tobacco use. Funding Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan; Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports and Technology, Japan; Department of Health, Australia; Bloomberg Philanthropies.
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Nova | |||||||||
2015 |
Howley PP, Hancock SJ, Gibberd RW, Chuang S, Tuyl FA, 'Bayesian methods in reporting and managing Australian clinical indicators', World Journal of Clinical Cases, 3 625-634 (2015) [C1]
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Nova | |||||||||
2014 |
Haskins R, Osmotherly PG, Tuyl F, Rivett DA, 'Uncertainty in clinical prediction rules: The value of credible intervals', Journal of Orthopaedic and Sports Physical Therapy, 44 85-91 (2014) [C1] SYNOPSIS: Decision making in physical therapy is increasingly informed by evidence in the form of probabilities. Prior beliefs concerning diagnoses, prognoses, and treatment effec... [more] SYNOPSIS: Decision making in physical therapy is increasingly informed by evidence in the form of probabilities. Prior beliefs concerning diagnoses, prognoses, and treatment effects are quantitatively revised by the integration of new information derived from the history, physical examination, and other investigations in a well-recognized application of Bayes' theorem. Clinical prediction rule development studies commonly employ such methodology to produce quantified estimates of the likelihood of patients having certain diagnoses or achieving given outcomes. To date, the physical therapy literature has been limited to the discussion and calculation of the point estimate of such probabilities. The degree of precision associated with the construction of posterior probabilities, which requires consideration of both uncertainty associated with pretest probability and uncertainty associated with test accuracy, remains largely unrecognized and unreported. This paper provides an introduction to the calculation of the uncertainty interval, known as a credible interval, around posterior probability estimates. The method for calculating the credible interval is detailed and illustrated with example data from 2 clinical prediction rule development studies. Two relatively quick and simple methods for approximating the credible interval are also outlined. It is anticipated that knowledge of the credible interval will have practical implications for the incorporation of probabilistic evidence in clinical practice. Consistent with reporting standards for interventional and diagnostic studies, it is equally appropriate that studies reporting posterior probabilities calculate and report the level of precision associated with these point estimates. Copyright © 2014 Journal of Orthopaedic and Sports Physical Therapy®.
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Nova | |||||||||
2010 | Tuyl FA, Gerlach R, Mengersen K, 'Consensus priors in the presence of general laws', Journal of Applied Probability & Statistics, 5 31-42 (2010) [C1] | Nova | |||||||||
2009 |
Tuyl FA, Gerlach R, Mengersen K, 'Posterior predictive arguments in favor of the Bayes-Laplace prior as the consensus prior for binomial and multinomial parameters', Bayesian Analysis, 4 151-158 (2009) [C1]
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Nova | |||||||||
2009 |
Tuyl FA, Gerlach R, Mengersen K, ''A comparison of Bayes-Laplace, Jeffreys's, and other priors: The case of zero events;' The American Statistician, 62, 40-44: Comment and reply', American Statistician, 63 197-198 (2009) [C3]
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Nova | |||||||||
2009 |
Tuyl FA, 'Conditional probability and HIV testing: A real-world example', American Statistician, 63 294 (2009) [C3]
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Nova | |||||||||
2009 |
Paterson B, Durrheim DN, Tuyl FA, 'Influenza: H1N1 goes to school', Science, 325 1071-1072 (2009) [C3]
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Nova | |||||||||
2009 |
Tuyl FA, Gerlach R, Mengersen K, 'The rule of three, its variants and extensions', International Statistical Review, 77 266-275 (2009) [C1]
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Nova | |||||||||
2009 | Tuyl F, Gerlach R, Mengersen K, 'Tuyl, F., Gerlach, R., and Mengersen, K. (2008), "A Comparison of Bayes-Laplace, Jeffreys's, and Other Priors: The Case of Zero Events;" The American Statistician, 62, 40-44: Comment and Reply', AMERICAN STATISTICIAN, 63 197-198 (2009) | ||||||||||
2009 |
Carlson SJ, Dalton CB, Tuyl FA, Durrheim DN, Fejsa J, Muscatello DJ, et al., 'Flutracking surveillance: Comparing 2007 New South Wales results with laboratory confirmed influenza notifications', Communicable Diseases Intelligence Quarterly Report, 33 323-326 (2009) [C1]
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Nova | |||||||||
2009 |
Dalton CB, Durrheim DN, Fejsa J, Francis JL, Carlson S, Tursan D'Espaignet E, Tuyl FA, 'Flutracking: A weekly Australian community online survey of influenza-like illness in 2006, 2007 and 2008', Communicable Diseases Intelligence Quarterly Report, 33 316-322 (2009) [C1]
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Nova | |||||||||
2008 |
Cretikos M, Eastwood K, Dalton CB, Merritt TD, Tuyl FA, Winn L, Durrheim DN, 'Household disaster preparedness and information sources: Rapid cluster survey after a storm in New South Wales, Australia', BMC Public Health, 8 1-9 (2008) [C1]
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Nova | |||||||||
2008 |
Tuyl FA, Gerlach RH, Mengersen KL, 'A comparison of bayes-laplace, jeffreys, and other priors: the case of zero events', American Statistician, 62 40-44 (2008) [C1]
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Nova | |||||||||
2008 |
Tuyl FA, Gerlach R, Mengersen K, 'Inference for proportions in a 2 x 2 contingency table: HPD or not HPD?', Biometrics, 64 1293-1295 (2008) [C1]
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2006 |
Gerlach RH, Tuyl FA, 'MCMC methods for comparing stochastic volatility and GARCH models', International Journal of Forecasting, 22 91-107 (2006) [C1]
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Nova | |||||||||
2004 |
Easton SA, Gerlach RH, Graham M, Tuyl FA, 'An empirical examination of the pricing of exchange-traded barrier options', The Journal of Futures Market, 24 1049-1064 (2004) [C1]
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Nova | |||||||||
Show 22 more journal articles |
Conference (8 outputs)
Year | Citation | Altmetrics | Link | |||||
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2018 | Lin Y-F, Howley PP, Tuyl F, 'A Posterior Predictive Model-Based Control Chart for Monitoring Healthcare', Sydney, Australia (2018) | |||||||
2017 |
Stokes B, Tuyl F, Hudson I, 'New prior sampling methods for nested sampling - Development and testing', AIP Conference Proceedings, Ghent, Belgium (2017) [E1]
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Nova | ||||||
2016 |
Stokes BJ, Tuyl F, Hudson I, 'Equidistribution testing with Bayes factors and the ECT', AIP Conference Proceedings, 1757, Potsdam, NY, USA (2016) [E1]
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Nova | ||||||
2013 | Stokes B, Tuyl F, Hudson IL, 'A New Implementation of Nested Sampling', Proceedings of 33rd International Workshop on Bayesian Inference and Maximum Entropy Methods in Science and Engineering, Canberra (2013) [E3] | Nova | ||||||
2011 | Tuyl FA, 'Were Clopper & Pearson (1934) too careful?', Proceedings of the 4th Applied Statistics Education and Research Collaboration (ASEARC) Conference, Parramatta, NSW (2011) [E1] | Nova | ||||||
2010 | Tuyl FA, Gerlach R, Mengersen K, 'Conditional confidence of binomial intervals', Australian Statistical Conference (ASC2010) - Statistics in the West: Understanding our World. Program and Abstracts, Fremantle, WA (2010) [E3] | |||||||
2009 | Tuyl FA, 'Diagnostic testing: A simple approximate interval for the positive predictive value', ASEARC: Proceedings of the Third Annual ASEARC Research Conference, Newcastle, NSW (2009) [E1] | Nova | ||||||
2004 | Tuyl FA, 'Confidence Intervals for a Proportion - A Practitioner's View', Conference Handbook, Cairns, Qld (2004) [E3] | |||||||
Show 5 more conferences |
Report (1 outputs)
Year | Citation | Altmetrics | Link |
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2014 | Moffiet T, Tuyl FA, Hudson IL, Tursan d'Espaignet E, 'Literature review into existing tobacco projection tools: A blueprint to allow practical development of a projection tool', WHO Organization Tobacco Free Initiative, Comprehensive Information Systems for Tobacco Control and MAPS (2014) [R2] |
Grants and Funding
Summary
Number of grants | 10 |
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Total funding | $638,341 |
Click on a grant title below to expand the full details for that specific grant.
20163 grants / $105,268
Project to produce estimation of mortality gains from possible interventions to reduce tobacco use in the WHO Interactive Smoking Projection Tool (ISPT).$52,520
Funding body: World Health Organization
Funding body | World Health Organization |
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Project Team | Doctor Frank Tuyl, Professor Irene Hudson |
Scheme | Research Grant |
Role | Lead |
Funding Start | 2016 |
Funding Finish | 2016 |
GNo | G1600900 |
Type Of Funding | International - Non Competitive |
Category | 3IFB |
UON | Y |
WHO Interactive Smoking Projection Tool (ISPT) to run projected mortality estimates for all countries$26,479
Funding body: World Health Organization
Funding body | World Health Organization |
---|---|
Project Team | Doctor Frank Tuyl, Dr Edouard Tursan d'Espaignet |
Scheme | Research Grant |
Role | Lead |
Funding Start | 2016 |
Funding Finish | 2016 |
GNo | G1700001 |
Type Of Funding | C3700 – International Govt – Own Purpose |
Category | 3700 |
UON | Y |
Project to adjust method to generate prevalence trends in tobacco smoking with a logistic function and to enable mortality gains from tobacco interventions$26,269
Funding body: World Health Organization
Funding body | World Health Organization |
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Project Team | Doctor Frank Tuyl, Professor Irene Hudson, Dr Edouard Tursan d'Espaignet |
Scheme | Research Grant |
Role | Lead |
Funding Start | 2016 |
Funding Finish | 2016 |
GNo | G1600593 |
Type Of Funding | International - Non Competitive |
Category | 3IFB |
UON | Y |
20151 grants / $35,459
Development of method to measure potential mortality impact and potential lives saved and propose timetable and methods into the WHO Interactive Smoking Projection Tool$35,459
Funding body: World Health Organization
Funding body | World Health Organization |
---|---|
Project Team | Doctor Frank Tuyl, Professor Irene Hudson, Dr Edouard Tursan d'Espaignet |
Scheme | Research Grant |
Role | Lead |
Funding Start | 2015 |
Funding Finish | 2015 |
GNo | G1501133 |
Type Of Funding | International - Non Competitive |
Category | 3IFB |
UON | Y |
20143 grants / $203,253
Development of a statistical method to estimate past, current and future prevalence of tobacco use at country, regional and global levels$175,000
Funding body: Department of Health and Aged Care
Funding body | Department of Health and Aged Care |
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Project Team | Doctor Frank Tuyl, Professor Irene Hudson, Dr Edouard Tursan d'Espaignet |
Scheme | Investment in Preventative Health - Tobacco Harm Minimisation |
Role | Lead |
Funding Start | 2014 |
Funding Finish | 2014 |
GNo | G1300991 |
Type Of Funding | Other Public Sector - Commonwealth |
Category | 2OPC |
UON | Y |
Literature review into existing tobacco projection tools and development of a blueprint that would allow for exploration of possible interventions necessary to achieve tobacco targets$26,823
Funding body: World Health Organization
Funding body | World Health Organization |
---|---|
Project Team | Doctor Frank Tuyl, Professor Irene Hudson, Dr Edouard Tursan d'Espaignet |
Scheme | Research Grant |
Role | Lead |
Funding Start | 2014 |
Funding Finish | 2014 |
GNo | G1401345 |
Type Of Funding | International - Non Competitive |
Category | 3IFB |
UON | Y |
Faculty PVC Conference Assistance Grant 2014$1,430
Funding body: University of Newcastle - Faculty of Science & IT
Funding body | University of Newcastle - Faculty of Science & IT |
---|---|
Project Team | Doctor Frank Tuyl |
Scheme | PVC Conference Assistance Grant |
Role | Lead |
Funding Start | 2014 |
Funding Finish | 2014 |
GNo | G1401238 |
Type Of Funding | Internal |
Category | INTE |
UON | Y |
20131 grants / $2,000
Faculty PVC Conference Assistance Grant 2013$2,000
Funding body: University of Newcastle - Faculty of Science & IT
Funding body | University of Newcastle - Faculty of Science & IT |
---|---|
Project Team | Doctor Frank Tuyl |
Scheme | PVC Conference Assistance Grant |
Role | Lead |
Funding Start | 2013 |
Funding Finish | 2013 |
GNo | G1401179 |
Type Of Funding | Internal |
Category | INTE |
UON | Y |
20091 grants / $267,361
Health Behaviour Research Centre (HBRC)$267,361
Funding body: University of Newcastle
Funding body | University of Newcastle |
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Project Team | Laureate Professor Robert Sanson-Fisher, Conjoint Professor Afaf Girgis, Professor John Wiggers, Conjoint Professor Alison Jones, Conjoint Professor David Durrheim, Professor Christine Paul, Prof ERICA James, Professor Billie Bonevski, Conjoint Associate Professor Andrew Bell, Doctor Allison Boyes, Professor Kypros Kypri, Conjoint Professor Cate d'Este, Professor John Attia, Professor Luke Wolfenden, Doctor Frank Tuyl, Doctor Lyn Francis, Doctor Megan Freund, Dr Claire Johnson, Doctor Josephine Gwynn, Professor Jennifer Bowman, Associate Professor Sue Outram, Associate Professor Marita Lynagh, Doctor Natalie Johnson, Associate Professor Conor Gilligan, Conjoint Professor David Sibbritt, Aprof EDOUARD Tursan D'Espaignet, Doctor Libby Campbell |
Scheme | Priority Research Centre |
Role | Investigator |
Funding Start | 2009 |
Funding Finish | 2012 |
GNo | G0189877 |
Type Of Funding | Internal |
Category | INTE |
UON | Y |
20081 grants / $25,000
Upgrade of computer equipment for the computer assisted telephone generalised electronic system$25,000
Funding body: NHMRC (National Health & Medical Research Council)
Funding body | NHMRC (National Health & Medical Research Council) |
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Project Team | Professor John Wiggers, Conjoint Professor Afaf Girgis, Conjoint Professor David Durrheim, Professor Jennifer Bowman, Conjoint Associate Professor Andrew Bell, Professor Christine Paul, Conjoint Associate Professor Raoul Walsh, Dr Edouard Tursan d'Espaignet, Doctor Lyn Francis, Doctor Frank Tuyl, Prof ERICA James, Doctor Allison Boyes, Professor Luke Wolfenden, Doctor Libby Campbell |
Scheme | Equipment Grant |
Role | Investigator |
Funding Start | 2008 |
Funding Finish | 2008 |
GNo | G0188548 |
Type Of Funding | Other Public Sector - Commonwealth |
Category | 2OPC |
UON | Y |
Research Supervision
Number of supervisions
Past Supervision
Year | Level of Study | Research Title | Program | Supervisor Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
2020 | PhD | Exploring Value-Added Models for American Higher Education Institutions and Omani Post-Basic Education | PhD (Statistics), College of Engineering, Science and Environment, The University of Newcastle | Co-Supervisor |
2019 | PhD | Bayesian Interval Estimation and Performance Measurement | PhD (Statistics), College of Engineering, Science and Environment, The University of Newcastle | Co-Supervisor |
2018 | PhD | New Prior Sampling Methods and Equidistribution Testing for Nested Sampling | PhD (Statistics), College of Engineering, Science and Environment, The University of Newcastle | Principal Supervisor |
2013 | PhD | Application of Smooth Tests of Goodness of Fit to Generalized Linear Models | PhD (Statistics), College of Engineering, Science and Environment, The University of Newcastle | Principal Supervisor |
Dr Frank Tuyl
Position
Honorary Lecturer
School of Information and Physical Sciences
College of Engineering, Science and Environment
Focus area
Data Science and Statistics
Contact Details
frank.tuyl@newcastle.edu.au | |
Phone | (02) 4921 8854 |
Fax | (02) 4921 6898 |
Office
Room | SR-117 |
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Building | Social Sciences Building |
Location | Callaghan University Drive Callaghan, NSW 2308 Australia |