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Dr Frank Tuyl

Lecturer

School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences (Statistics)

Career Summary

Biography

Dr Tuyl is a lecturer in the School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences. He has a PhD in Statistics, and has published and presented at conferences in the field of Bayesian methods and applications. Dr Tuyl also has more than 20 years of statistical and operations research consulting experience in manufacturing, information technology, academia and health sectors, with demonstrated skills in a large variety of statistical and operations research techniques.

Research Expertise
Applied Statistics, Biostatistics, Statistical Theory



Qualifications

  • PhD, University of Newcastle

Keywords

  • Applied Statistics
  • Biostatistics
  • Statistical Theory

Fields of Research

CodeDescriptionPercentage
010299Applied Mathematics not elsewhere classified10
010401Applied Statistics65
110399Clinical Sciences not elsewhere classified25

Professional Experience

UON Appointment

DatesTitleOrganisation / Department
1/01/2014 - LecturerUniversity of Newcastle
School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences
Australia
18/12/2006 - 20/07/2007Research AcademicUniversity of Newcastle
School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences
Australia
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Publications

For publications that are currently unpublished or in-press, details are shown in italics.


Journal article (14 outputs)

YearCitationAltmetricsLink
2014Haskins R, Osmotherly PG, Tuyl F, Rivett DA, 'Uncertainty in clinical prediction rules: The value of credible intervals', Journal of Orthopaedic and Sports Physical Therapy, 44 85-91 (2014) [C1]

SYNOPSIS: Decision making in physical therapy is increasingly informed by evidence in the form of probabilities. Prior beliefs concerning diagnoses, prognoses, and treatment effec... [more]

SYNOPSIS: Decision making in physical therapy is increasingly informed by evidence in the form of probabilities. Prior beliefs concerning diagnoses, prognoses, and treatment effects are quantitatively revised by the integration of new information derived from the history, physical examination, and other investigations in a well-recognized application of Bayes' theorem. Clinical prediction rule development studies commonly employ such methodology to produce quantified estimates of the likelihood of patients having certain diagnoses or achieving given outcomes. To date, the physical therapy literature has been limited to the discussion and calculation of the point estimate of such probabilities. The degree of precision associated with the construction of posterior probabilities, which requires consideration of both uncertainty associated with pretest probability and uncertainty associated with test accuracy, remains largely unrecognized and unreported. This paper provides an introduction to the calculation of the uncertainty interval, known as a credible interval, around posterior probability estimates. The method for calculating the credible interval is detailed and illustrated with example data from 2 clinical prediction rule development studies. Two relatively quick and simple methods for approximating the credible interval are also outlined. It is anticipated that knowledge of the credible interval will have practical implications for the incorporation of probabilistic evidence in clinical practice. Consistent with reporting standards for interventional and diagnostic studies, it is equally appropriate that studies reporting posterior probabilities calculate and report the level of precision associated with these point estimates. Copyright © 2014 Journal of Orthopaedic and Sports Physical Therapy®.

DOI10.2519/jospt.2014.4877
CitationsScopus - 2Web of Science - 2
Co-authorsDarren Rivett, Peter Osmotherly
2010Tuyl FA, Gerlach R, Mengersen K, 'Consensus priors in the presence of general laws', Journal of Applied Probability & Statistics, 5 31-42 (2010) [C1]
2009Tuyl FA, Gerlach R, Mengersen K, 'Posterior predictive arguments in favor of the Bayes-Laplace prior as the consensus prior for binomial and multinomial parameters', Bayesian Analysis, 4 151-158 (2009) [C1]
DOI10.1214/09-ba405
CitationsScopus - 10Web of Science - 10
2009Tuyl FA, Gerlach R, Mengersen K, ''A comparison of Bayes-Laplace, Jeffreys's, and other priors: The case of zero events;' The American Statistician, 62, 40-44: Comment and reply', American Statistician, 63 197-198 (2009) [C3]
DOI10.1198/tast.2009.0037
2009Tuyl FA, 'Conditional probability and HIV testing: A real-world example', American Statistician, 63 294 (2009) [C3]
DOI10.1198/tast.2009.08292
2009Paterson B, Durrheim DN, Tuyl FA, 'Influenza: H1N1 goes to school', Science, 325 1071-1072 (2009) [C3]
CitationsScopus - 9Web of Science - 8
Co-authorsDavid Durrheim
2009Tuyl FA, Gerlach R, Mengersen K, 'The rule of three, its variants and extensions', International Statistical Review, 77 266-275 (2009) [C1]
DOI10.1111/j.1751-5823.2009.00078.x
CitationsScopus - 1Web of Science - 1
2009Carlson SJ, Dalton CB, Tuyl FA, Durrheim DN, Fejsa J, Muscatello DJ, et al., 'Flutracking surveillance: Comparing 2007 New South Wales results with laboratory confirmed influenza notifications', Communicable Diseases Intelligence Quarterly Report, 33 323-326 (2009) [C1]
CitationsScopus - 7
Co-authorsCraig Dalton, David Durrheim
2009Dalton CB, Durrheim DN, Fejsa J, Francis JL, Carlson S, Tursan D'Espaignet E, Tuyl FA, 'Flutracking: A weekly Australian community online survey of influenza-like illness in 2006, 2007 and 2008', Communicable Diseases Intelligence Quarterly Report, 33 316-322 (2009) [C1]
CitationsScopus - 11
Co-authorsDavid Durrheim, Craig Dalton
2008Cretikos M, Eastwood K, Dalton CB, Merritt TD, Tuyl FA, Winn L, Durrheim DN, 'Household disaster preparedness and information sources: Rapid cluster survey after a storm in New South Wales, Australia', BMC Public Health, 8 1-9 (2008) [C1]
DOI10.1186/1471-2458-8-195
CitationsScopus - 14Web of Science - 13
Co-authorsDavid Durrheim, Craig Dalton
2008Tuyl FA, Gerlach RH, Mengersen KL, 'A comparison of bayes-laplace, jeffreys, and other priors: the case of zero events', American Statistician, 62 40-44 (2008) [C1]
DOI10.1198/000313008x267839
CitationsScopus - 17Web of Science - 13
2008Tuyl FA, Gerlach R, Mengersen K, 'Inference for proportions in a 2 x 2 contingency table: HPD or not HPD?', Biometrics, 64 1293-1295 (2008) [C1]
DOI10.1111/j.1541-0420.2008.01134_1.x
2006Gerlach RH, Tuyl FA, 'MCMC methods for comparing stochastic volatility and GARCH models', International Journal of Forecasting, 22 91-107 (2006) [C1]
DOI10.1016/j.ijforecast.2005.04.020
2004Easton SA, Gerlach RH, Graham M, Tuyl FA, 'An empirical examination of the pricing of exchange-traded barrier options', The Journal of Futures Market, 24 1049-1064 (2004) [C1]
DOI10.1002/fut.20117
CitationsScopus - 6Web of Science - 5
Co-authorsSteve Easton
Show 11 more journal articles

Conference (5 outputs)

YearCitationAltmetricsLink
2013Stokes B, Tuyl F, Hudson IL, 'A New Implementation of Nested Sampling', Proceedings of 33rd International Workshop on Bayesian Inference and Maximum Entropy Methods in Science and Engineering, Canberra (2013) [E3]
Co-authorsIrene Hudson, Barrie Stokes
2011Tuyl FA, 'Were Clopper & Pearson (1934) too careful?', Proceedings of the 4th Applied Statistics Education and Research Collaboration (ASEARC) Conference, Parramatta, NSW (2011) [E1]
Author URL
2010Tuyl FA, Gerlach R, Mengersen K, 'Conditional confidence of binomial intervals', Australian Statistical Conference (ASC2010) - Statistics in the West: Understanding our World. Program and Abstracts, Fremantle, WA (2010) [E3]
2009Tuyl FA, 'Diagnostic testing: A simple approximate interval for the positive predictive value', ASEARC: Proceedings of the Third Annual ASEARC Research Conference, Newcastle, NSW (2009) [E1]
2004Tuyl FA, 'Confidence Intervals for a Proportion - A Practitioner's View', Conference Handbook, Cairns, Qld (2004) [E3]
Show 2 more conferences

Report (1 outputs)

YearCitationAltmetricsLink
2014Moffiet T, Tuyl FA, Hudson IL, Tursan d'Espaignet E, 'Literature review into existing tobacco projection tools: A blueprint to allow practical development of a projection tool', WHO Organization Tobacco Free Initiative, Comprehensive Information Systems for Tobacco Control and MAPS (2014) [R2]
Co-authorsTrevor Moffiet, Irene Hudson
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Grants and Funding

Summary

Number of grants7
Total funding$672,614

Click on a grant title below to expand the full details for that specific grant.


20144 grants / $378,253

Development of a statistical method to estimate past, current and future prevalence of tobacco use at country, regional and global levels$175,000

Funding body: Department of Health

Funding bodyDepartment of Health
Project TeamDoctor Frank Tuyl, Professor Irene Hudson, Dr Edouard d'Espaignet
SchemeInvestment in Preventative Health - Tobacco Harm Minimisation
RoleLead
Funding Start2014
Funding Finish2014
GNoG1300991
Type Of FundingOther Public Sector - State
Category2OPS
UONY

Development of a statistical method to estimate past, current and future prevalence of tobacco use at country, regional and global levels$175,000

Funding body: Department of Health

Funding bodyDepartment of Health
Project TeamDoctor Frank Tuyl, Professor Irene Hudson, Dr Edouard d'Espaignet
SchemeInvestment in Preventative Health - Tobacco Harm Minimisation
RoleLead
Funding Start2014
Funding Finish2014
GNoG1300991
Type Of FundingOther Public Sector - Commonwealth
Category2OPC
UONY

Literature review into existing tobacco projection tools and development of a blueprint that would allow for exploration of possible interventions necessary to achieve tobacco targets$26,823

Funding body: World Health Organisation

Funding bodyWorld Health Organisation
Project TeamDoctor Frank Tuyl, Professor Irene Hudson, Dr Edouard d'Espaignet
SchemeResearch Grant
RoleLead
Funding Start2014
Funding Finish2014
GNoG1401345
Type Of FundingInternational - Non Competitive
Category3IFB
UONY

Faculty PVC Conference Assistance Grant 2014$1,430

Funding body: University of Newcastle - Faculty of Science & IT

Funding bodyUniversity of Newcastle - Faculty of Science & IT
Project TeamDoctor Frank Tuyl
SchemePVC Conference Assistance Grant
RoleLead
Funding Start2014
Funding Finish2014
GNoG1401238
Type Of FundingInternal
CategoryINTE
UONY

20131 grants / $2,000

Faculty PVC Conference Assistance Grant 2013$2,000

Funding body: University of Newcastle - Faculty of Science & IT

Funding bodyUniversity of Newcastle - Faculty of Science & IT
Project TeamDoctor Frank Tuyl
SchemePVC Conference Assistance Grant
RoleLead
Funding Start2013
Funding Finish2013
GNoG1401179
Type Of FundingInternal
CategoryINTE
UONY

20091 grants / $267,361

20081 grants / $25,000

Upgrade of computer equipment for the computer assisted telephone generalised electronic system$25,000

Funding body: NHMRC (National Health & Medical Research Council)

Funding bodyNHMRC (National Health & Medical Research Council)
Project TeamProfessor John Wiggers, Conjoint Professor Afaf Girgis, Conjoint Professor David Durrheim, Associate Professor Jennifer Bowman, Conjoint Associate Professor Andrew Bell, Associate Professor Christine Paul, Conjoint Associate Professor Raoul Walsh, Dr Edouard Tursan D'Espaignet, Ms Lyn Francis, Doctor Frank Tuyl, Associate Professor Erica James, Doctor Allison Boyes, Doctor Luke Wolfenden, Doctor Libby Campbell
SchemeEquipment Grant
RoleInvestigator
Funding Start2008
Funding Finish2008
GNoG0188548
Type Of FundingOther Public Sector - Commonwealth
Category2OPC
UONY
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Research Supervision

Current Supervision

CommencedResearch Title / Program / Supervisor Type
2015Analysis of Performance Indicators in Oman Higher Education
Statistics, Faculty of Science and Information Technology
Co-Supervisor
2014Bayesian Interval Estimation and Performance Measurement
Statistics, Faculty of Science and Information Technology
Co-Supervisor
2013Development, Implementation, and Applications of Nested Sampling
Statistics, Faculty of Science and Information Technology
Principal Supervisor

Past Supervision

YearResearch Title / Program / Supervisor Type
2013Application of Smooth Tests of Goodness of Fit to Generalized Linear Models
Statistics, Faculty of Science and Information Technology
Principal Supervisor
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Dr Frank Tuyl

Position

Lecturer
School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences
Faculty of Science and Information Technology

Focus area

Statistics

Contact Details

Emailfrank.tuyl@newcastle.edu.au
Phone(02) 4921 8854
Fax(02) 4921 6898

Office

RoomV24
BuildingMathematics
LocationCallaghan
University Drive
Callaghan, NSW 2308
Australia
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