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Dr Frank Tuyl

Lecturer

School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences (Statistics)

Career Summary

Biography

Dr Tuyl is a lecturer in the School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences. He has a PhD in Statistics, and has published and presented at conferences in the field of Bayesian methods and applications. Dr Tuyl also has more than 20 years of statistical and operations research consulting experience in manufacturing, information technology, academia and health sectors, with demonstrated skills in a large variety of statistical and operations research techniques.

Research Expertise
Applied Statistics, Biostatistics, Statistical Theory



Qualifications

  • PhD, University of Newcastle

Keywords

  • Applied Statistics
  • Biostatistics
  • Statistical Theory

Fields of Research

Code Description Percentage
010299 Applied Mathematics not elsewhere classified 10
010401 Applied Statistics 65
110399 Clinical Sciences not elsewhere classified 25

Professional Experience

UON Appointment

Dates Title Organisation / Department
1/01/2014 -  Lecturer University of Newcastle
School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences
Australia
18/12/2006 - 20/07/2007 Research Academic University of Newcastle
School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences
Australia
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Publications

For publications that are currently unpublished or in-press, details are shown in italics.


Journal article (14 outputs)

Year Citation Altmetrics Link
2014 Haskins R, Osmotherly PG, Tuyl F, Rivett DA, 'Uncertainty in clinical prediction rules: The value of credible intervals', Journal of Orthopaedic and Sports Physical Therapy, 44 85-91 (2014) [C1]

SYNOPSIS: Decision making in physical therapy is increasingly informed by evidence in the form of probabilities. Prior beliefs concerning diagnoses, prognoses, and treatment effec... [more]

SYNOPSIS: Decision making in physical therapy is increasingly informed by evidence in the form of probabilities. Prior beliefs concerning diagnoses, prognoses, and treatment effects are quantitatively revised by the integration of new information derived from the history, physical examination, and other investigations in a well-recognized application of Bayes' theorem. Clinical prediction rule development studies commonly employ such methodology to produce quantified estimates of the likelihood of patients having certain diagnoses or achieving given outcomes. To date, the physical therapy literature has been limited to the discussion and calculation of the point estimate of such probabilities. The degree of precision associated with the construction of posterior probabilities, which requires consideration of both uncertainty associated with pretest probability and uncertainty associated with test accuracy, remains largely unrecognized and unreported. This paper provides an introduction to the calculation of the uncertainty interval, known as a credible interval, around posterior probability estimates. The method for calculating the credible interval is detailed and illustrated with example data from 2 clinical prediction rule development studies. Two relatively quick and simple methods for approximating the credible interval are also outlined. It is anticipated that knowledge of the credible interval will have practical implications for the incorporation of probabilistic evidence in clinical practice. Consistent with reporting standards for interventional and diagnostic studies, it is equally appropriate that studies reporting posterior probabilities calculate and report the level of precision associated with these point estimates. Copyright © 2014 Journal of Orthopaedic and Sports Physical Therapy®.

DOI 10.2519/jospt.2014.4877
Citations Scopus - 2Web of Science - 2
Co-authors Darren Rivett, Peter Osmotherly
2010 Tuyl FA, Gerlach R, Mengersen K, 'Consensus priors in the presence of general laws', Journal of Applied Probability & Statistics, 5 31-42 (2010) [C1]
2009 Tuyl FA, Gerlach R, Mengersen K, 'Posterior predictive arguments in favor of the Bayes-Laplace prior as the consensus prior for binomial and multinomial parameters', Bayesian Analysis, 4 151-158 (2009) [C1]
DOI 10.1214/09-ba405
Citations Scopus - 10Web of Science - 10
2009 Tuyl FA, Gerlach R, Mengersen K, ''A comparison of Bayes-Laplace, Jeffreys's, and other priors: The case of zero events;' The American Statistician, 62, 40-44: Comment and reply', American Statistician, 63 197-198 (2009) [C3]
DOI 10.1198/tast.2009.0037
2009 Tuyl FA, 'Conditional probability and HIV testing: A real-world example', American Statistician, 63 294 (2009) [C3]
DOI 10.1198/tast.2009.08292
2009 Paterson B, Durrheim DN, Tuyl FA, 'Influenza: H1N1 goes to school', Science, 325 1071-1072 (2009) [C3]
Citations Scopus - 9Web of Science - 8
Co-authors David Durrheim
2009 Tuyl FA, Gerlach R, Mengersen K, 'The rule of three, its variants and extensions', International Statistical Review, 77 266-275 (2009) [C1]
DOI 10.1111/j.1751-5823.2009.00078.x
Citations Scopus - 1Web of Science - 1
2009 Carlson SJ, Dalton CB, Tuyl FA, Durrheim DN, Fejsa J, Muscatello DJ, et al., 'Flutracking surveillance: Comparing 2007 New South Wales results with laboratory confirmed influenza notifications', Communicable Diseases Intelligence Quarterly Report, 33 323-326 (2009) [C1]
Citations Scopus - 7
Co-authors Craig Dalton, David Durrheim
2009 Dalton CB, Durrheim DN, Fejsa J, Francis JL, Carlson S, Tursan D'Espaignet E, Tuyl FA, 'Flutracking: A weekly Australian community online survey of influenza-like illness in 2006, 2007 and 2008', Communicable Diseases Intelligence Quarterly Report, 33 316-322 (2009) [C1]
Citations Scopus - 11
Co-authors David Durrheim, Craig Dalton
2008 Cretikos M, Eastwood K, Dalton CB, Merritt TD, Tuyl FA, Winn L, Durrheim DN, 'Household disaster preparedness and information sources: Rapid cluster survey after a storm in New South Wales, Australia', BMC Public Health, 8 1-9 (2008) [C1]
DOI 10.1186/1471-2458-8-195
Citations Scopus - 14Web of Science - 13
Co-authors David Durrheim, Craig Dalton
2008 Tuyl FA, Gerlach RH, Mengersen KL, 'A comparison of bayes-laplace, jeffreys, and other priors: the case of zero events', American Statistician, 62 40-44 (2008) [C1]
DOI 10.1198/000313008x267839
Citations Scopus - 17Web of Science - 13
2008 Tuyl FA, Gerlach R, Mengersen K, 'Inference for proportions in a 2 x 2 contingency table: HPD or not HPD?', Biometrics, 64 1293-1295 (2008) [C1]
DOI 10.1111/j.1541-0420.2008.01134_1.x
2006 Gerlach RH, Tuyl FA, 'MCMC methods for comparing stochastic volatility and GARCH models', International Journal of Forecasting, 22 91-107 (2006) [C1]
DOI 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2005.04.020
2004 Easton SA, Gerlach RH, Graham M, Tuyl FA, 'An empirical examination of the pricing of exchange-traded barrier options', The Journal of Futures Market, 24 1049-1064 (2004) [C1]
DOI 10.1002/fut.20117
Citations Scopus - 6Web of Science - 5
Co-authors Steve Easton
Show 11 more journal articles

Conference (5 outputs)

Year Citation Altmetrics Link
2013 Stokes B, Tuyl F, Hudson IL, 'A New Implementation of Nested Sampling', Proceedings of 33rd International Workshop on Bayesian Inference and Maximum Entropy Methods in Science and Engineering, Canberra (2013) [E3]
Co-authors Irene Hudson, Barrie Stokes
2011 Tuyl FA, 'Were Clopper & Pearson (1934) too careful?', Proceedings of the 4th Applied Statistics Education and Research Collaboration (ASEARC) Conference, Parramatta, NSW (2011) [E1]
Author URL
2010 Tuyl FA, Gerlach R, Mengersen K, 'Conditional confidence of binomial intervals', Australian Statistical Conference (ASC2010) - Statistics in the West: Understanding our World. Program and Abstracts, Fremantle, WA (2010) [E3]
2009 Tuyl FA, 'Diagnostic testing: A simple approximate interval for the positive predictive value', ASEARC: Proceedings of the Third Annual ASEARC Research Conference, Newcastle, NSW (2009) [E1]
2004 Tuyl FA, 'Confidence Intervals for a Proportion - A Practitioner's View', Conference Handbook, Cairns, Qld (2004) [E3]
Show 2 more conferences

Report (1 outputs)

Year Citation Altmetrics Link
2014 Moffiet T, Tuyl FA, Hudson IL, Tursan d'Espaignet E, 'Literature review into existing tobacco projection tools: A blueprint to allow practical development of a projection tool', WHO Organization Tobacco Free Initiative, Comprehensive Information Systems for Tobacco Control and MAPS (2014) [R2]
Co-authors Trevor Moffiet, Irene Hudson
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Grants and Funding

Summary

Number of grants 7
Total funding $672,614

Click on a grant title below to expand the full details for that specific grant.


20144 grants / $378,253

Development of a statistical method to estimate past, current and future prevalence of tobacco use at country, regional and global levels$175,000

Funding body: Department of Health

Funding body Department of Health
Project Team Doctor Frank Tuyl, Professor Irene Hudson, Dr Edouard d'Espaignet
Scheme Investment in Preventative Health - Tobacco Harm Minimisation
Role Lead
Funding Start 2014
Funding Finish 2014
GNo G1300991
Type Of Funding Other Public Sector - State
Category 2OPS
UON Y

Development of a statistical method to estimate past, current and future prevalence of tobacco use at country, regional and global levels$175,000

Funding body: Department of Health

Funding body Department of Health
Project Team Doctor Frank Tuyl, Professor Irene Hudson, Dr Edouard d'Espaignet
Scheme Investment in Preventative Health - Tobacco Harm Minimisation
Role Lead
Funding Start 2014
Funding Finish 2014
GNo G1300991
Type Of Funding Other Public Sector - Commonwealth
Category 2OPC
UON Y

Literature review into existing tobacco projection tools and development of a blueprint that would allow for exploration of possible interventions necessary to achieve tobacco targets$26,823

Funding body: World Health Organisation

Funding body World Health Organisation
Project Team Doctor Frank Tuyl, Professor Irene Hudson, Dr Edouard d'Espaignet
Scheme Research Grant
Role Lead
Funding Start 2014
Funding Finish 2014
GNo G1401345
Type Of Funding International - Non Competitive
Category 3IFB
UON Y

Faculty PVC Conference Assistance Grant 2014$1,430

Funding body: University of Newcastle - Faculty of Science & IT

Funding body University of Newcastle - Faculty of Science & IT
Project Team Doctor Frank Tuyl
Scheme PVC Conference Assistance Grant
Role Lead
Funding Start 2014
Funding Finish 2014
GNo G1401238
Type Of Funding Internal
Category INTE
UON Y

20131 grants / $2,000

Faculty PVC Conference Assistance Grant 2013$2,000

Funding body: University of Newcastle - Faculty of Science & IT

Funding body University of Newcastle - Faculty of Science & IT
Project Team Doctor Frank Tuyl
Scheme PVC Conference Assistance Grant
Role Lead
Funding Start 2013
Funding Finish 2013
GNo G1401179
Type Of Funding Internal
Category INTE
UON Y

20091 grants / $267,361

20081 grants / $25,000

Upgrade of computer equipment for the computer assisted telephone generalised electronic system$25,000

Funding body: NHMRC (National Health & Medical Research Council)

Funding body NHMRC (National Health & Medical Research Council)
Project Team Professor John Wiggers, Conjoint Professor Afaf Girgis, Conjoint Professor David Durrheim, Associate Professor Jennifer Bowman, Conjoint Associate Professor Andrew Bell, Associate Professor Christine Paul, Conjoint Associate Professor Raoul Walsh, Dr Edouard Tursan D'Espaignet, Ms Lyn Francis, Doctor Frank Tuyl, Associate Professor Erica James, Doctor Allison Boyes, Doctor Luke Wolfenden, Doctor Libby Campbell
Scheme Equipment Grant
Role Investigator
Funding Start 2008
Funding Finish 2008
GNo G0188548
Type Of Funding Other Public Sector - Commonwealth
Category 2OPC
UON Y
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Research Supervision

Current Supervision

Commenced Research Title / Program / Supervisor Type
2015 Analysis of Performance Indicators in Oman Higher Education
Statistics, Faculty of Science and Information Technology
Co-Supervisor
2014 Bayesian Interval Estimation and Performance Measurement
Statistics, Faculty of Science and Information Technology
Co-Supervisor
2013 Development, Implementation, and Applications of Nested Sampling
Statistics, Faculty of Science and Information Technology
Principal Supervisor

Past Supervision

Year Research Title / Program / Supervisor Type
2013 Application of Smooth Tests of Goodness of Fit to Generalized Linear Models
Statistics, Faculty of Science and Information Technology
Principal Supervisor
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Dr Frank Tuyl

Position

Lecturer
School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences
Faculty of Science and Information Technology

Focus area

Statistics

Contact Details

Email frank.tuyl@newcastle.edu.au
Phone (02) 4921 8854
Fax (02) 4921 6898

Office

Room V24
Building Mathematics
Location Callaghan
University Drive
Callaghan, NSW 2308
Australia
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