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Dr Frank Tuyl

Lecturer

School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences (Statistics)

Career Summary

Biography

Dr Tuyl is a lecturer in the School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences. He has a PhD in Statistics, and has published and presented at conferences in the field of Bayesian methods and applications. Dr Tuyl also has more than 20 years of statistical and operations research consulting experience in manufacturing, information technology, academia and health sectors, with demonstrated skills in a large variety of statistical and operations research techniques.

Research Expertise
Applied Statistics, Biostatistics, Statistical Theory



Qualifications

  • PhD, University of Newcastle

Keywords

  • Applied Statistics
  • Biostatistics
  • Statistical Theory

Fields of Research

Code Description Percentage
010299 Applied Mathematics not elsewhere classified 10
010401 Applied Statistics 65
110399 Clinical Sciences not elsewhere classified 25

Professional Experience

UON Appointment

Title Organisation / Department
Lecturer University of Newcastle
School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences
Australia
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Publications

For publications that are currently unpublished or in-press, details are shown in italics.


Journal article (20 outputs)

Year Citation Altmetrics Link
2016 Tuyl FA, Howley PP, 'Simplifying Life Through Bayes: Hints for Practitioners New to Bayesian Inference', Quality Management Journal, 23 22-28 (2016)
Co-authors Peter Howley
2016 Tuyl FA, 'A note on priors for the multinomial model', American Statistician, To appear (2016)
2016 Tuyl FA, Gerlach R, Mengersen K, 'Consensus priors for multinomial and binomial ratios', Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice, To appear (2016)
2015 Bilano V, Gilmour S, Moffiet T, D'Espaignet ET, Stevens GA, Commar A, et al., 'Global trends and projections for tobacco use, 1990-2025: An analysis of smoking indicators from the WHO Comprehensive Information Systems for Tobacco Control', The Lancet, 385 966-976 (2015) [C1]

© 2015 World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Ltd/Inc/BV. All rights reserved.Background Countries have agreed on reduction targets for tobacco smoking stipulated in th... [more]

© 2015 World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Ltd/Inc/BV. All rights reserved.Background Countries have agreed on reduction targets for tobacco smoking stipulated in the WHO global monitoring framework, for achievement by 2025. In an analysis of data for tobacco smoking prevalence from nationally representative survey data, we aimed to provide comprehensive estimates of recent trends in tobacco smoking, projections for future tobacco smoking, and country-level estimates of probabilities of achieving tobacco smoking targets. Methods We used a Bayesian hierarchical meta-regression modelling approach using data from the WHO Comprehensive Information Systems for Tobacco Control to assess trends from 1990 to 2010 and made projections up to 2025 for current tobacco smoking, daily tobacco smoking, current cigarette smoking, and daily cigarette smoking for 173 countries for men and 178 countries for women. Modelling was implemented in Python with DisMod-MR and PyMC. We estimated trends in country-specific prevalence of tobacco use, projections for future tobacco use, and probabilities for decreased tobacco use, increased tobacco use, and achievement of targets for tobacco control from posterior distributions. Findings During the most recent decade (2000-10), the prevalence of tobacco smoking in men fell in 125 (72%) countries, and in women fell in 156 (88%) countries. If these trends continue, only 37 (21%) countries are on track to achieve their targets for men and 88 (49%) are on track for women, and there would be an estimated 1·1 billion current tobacco smokers (95% credible interval 700 million to 1·6 billion) in 2025. Rapid increases are predicted in Africa for men and in the eastern Mediterranean for both men and women, suggesting the need for enhanced measures for tobacco control in these regions. Interpretation Our findings show that striking between-country disparities in tobacco use would persist in 2025, with many countries not on track to achieve tobacco control targets and several low-income and middle-income countries at risk of worsening tobacco epidemics if these trends remain unchanged. Immediate, effective, and sustained action is necessary to attain and maintain desirable trajectories for tobacco control and achieve global convergence towards elimination of tobacco use. Funding Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan; Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports and Technology, Japan; Department of Health, Australia; Bloomberg Philanthropies.

DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60264-1
Citations Scopus - 21Web of Science - 16
Co-authors Irene Hudson
2015 Howley PP, Hancock SJ, Gibberd RW, Chuang S, Tuyl FA, 'Bayesian methods in reporting and managing Australian clinical indicators', World Journal of Clinical Cases, 3 625-634 (2015) [C1]
DOI 10.12998/wjcc.v3.i7.625
Co-authors Robert Gibberd, Peter Howley
2014 Haskins R, Osmotherly PG, Tuyl F, Rivett DA, 'Uncertainty in clinical prediction rules: The value of credible intervals', Journal of Orthopaedic and Sports Physical Therapy, 44 85-91 (2014) [C1]

SYNOPSIS: Decision making in physical therapy is increasingly informed by evidence in the form of probabilities. Prior beliefs concerning diagnoses, prognoses, and treatment effec... [more]

SYNOPSIS: Decision making in physical therapy is increasingly informed by evidence in the form of probabilities. Prior beliefs concerning diagnoses, prognoses, and treatment effects are quantitatively revised by the integration of new information derived from the history, physical examination, and other investigations in a well-recognized application of Bayes' theorem. Clinical prediction rule development studies commonly employ such methodology to produce quantified estimates of the likelihood of patients having certain diagnoses or achieving given outcomes. To date, the physical therapy literature has been limited to the discussion and calculation of the point estimate of such probabilities. The degree of precision associated with the construction of posterior probabilities, which requires consideration of both uncertainty associated with pretest probability and uncertainty associated with test accuracy, remains largely unrecognized and unreported. This paper provides an introduction to the calculation of the uncertainty interval, known as a credible interval, around posterior probability estimates. The method for calculating the credible interval is detailed and illustrated with example data from 2 clinical prediction rule development studies. Two relatively quick and simple methods for approximating the credible interval are also outlined. It is anticipated that knowledge of the credible interval will have practical implications for the incorporation of probabilistic evidence in clinical practice. Consistent with reporting standards for interventional and diagnostic studies, it is equally appropriate that studies reporting posterior probabilities calculate and report the level of precision associated with these point estimates. Copyright © 2014 Journal of Orthopaedic and Sports Physical Therapy®.

DOI 10.2519/jospt.2014.4877
Citations Scopus - 5Web of Science - 5
Co-authors Darren Rivett, Peter Osmotherly
2010 Tuyl FA, Gerlach R, Mengersen K, 'Consensus priors in the presence of general laws', Journal of Applied Probability & Statistics, 5 31-42 (2010) [C1]
2009 Tuyl FA, Gerlach R, Mengersen K, 'Posterior predictive arguments in favor of the Bayes-Laplace prior as the consensus prior for binomial and multinomial parameters', Bayesian Analysis, 4 151-158 (2009) [C1]
DOI 10.1214/09-ba405
Citations Scopus - 15Web of Science - 14
2009 Tuyl FA, Gerlach R, Mengersen K, ''A comparison of Bayes-Laplace, Jeffreys's, and other priors: The case of zero events;' The American Statistician, 62, 40-44: Comment and reply', American Statistician, 63 197-198 (2009) [C3]
DOI 10.1198/tast.2009.0037
2009 Tuyl FA, 'Conditional probability and HIV testing: A real-world example', American Statistician, 63 294 (2009) [C3]
DOI 10.1198/tast.2009.08292
2009 Paterson B, Durrheim DN, Tuyl FA, 'Influenza: H1N1 goes to school', Science, 325 1071-1072 (2009) [C3]
Citations Scopus - 10Web of Science - 8
Co-authors David Durrheim
2009 Tuyl FA, Gerlach R, Mengersen K, 'The rule of three, its variants and extensions', International Statistical Review, 77 266-275 (2009) [C1]
DOI 10.1111/j.1751-5823.2009.00078.x
Citations Scopus - 3Web of Science - 2
2009 Carlson SJ, Dalton CB, Tuyl FA, Durrheim DN, Fejsa J, Muscatello DJ, et al., 'Flutracking surveillance: Comparing 2007 New South Wales results with laboratory confirmed influenza notifications', Communicable Diseases Intelligence Quarterly Report, 33 323-326 (2009) [C1]
Citations Scopus - 9
Co-authors David Durrheim, Craig Dalton
2009 Dalton CB, Durrheim DN, Fejsa J, Francis JL, Carlson S, Tursan D'Espaignet E, Tuyl FA, 'Flutracking: A weekly Australian community online survey of influenza-like illness in 2006, 2007 and 2008', Communicable Diseases Intelligence Quarterly Report, 33 316-322 (2009) [C1]
Citations Scopus - 15
Co-authors David Durrheim, Craig Dalton
2008 Cretikos M, Eastwood K, Dalton CB, Merritt TD, Tuyl FA, Winn L, Durrheim DN, 'Household disaster preparedness and information sources: Rapid cluster survey after a storm in New South Wales, Australia', BMC Public Health, 8 1-9 (2008) [C1]
DOI 10.1186/1471-2458-8-195
Citations Scopus - 17Web of Science - 14
Co-authors David Durrheim, Craig Dalton
2008 Tuyl FA, Gerlach RH, Mengersen KL, 'A comparison of bayes-laplace, jeffreys, and other priors: the case of zero events', American Statistician, 62 40-44 (2008) [C1]
DOI 10.1198/000313008x267839
Citations Scopus - 20Web of Science - 14
2008 Tuyl FA, Gerlach R, Mengersen K, 'Inference for proportions in a 2 x 2 contingency table: HPD or not HPD?', Biometrics, 64 1293-1295 (2008) [C1]
DOI 10.1111/j.1541-0420.2008.01134_1.x
2006 Gerlach RH, Tuyl FA, 'MCMC methods for comparing stochastic volatility and GARCH models', International Journal of Forecasting, 22 91-107 (2006) [C1]
DOI 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2005.04.020
2004 Easton SA, Gerlach RH, Graham M, Tuyl FA, 'An empirical examination of the pricing of exchange-traded barrier options', The Journal of Futures Market, 24 1049-1064 (2004) [C1]
DOI 10.1002/fut.20117
Citations Scopus - 7Web of Science - 6
Co-authors Steve Easton
1998 Flanagan K, Colyvas K, Tuyl F, 'Injury after absence: a steel industry study', Journal of Occupational Health and Safety, Australia and New Zealand, 14 167-178 (1998)
Co-authors Kim Colyvas
Show 17 more journal articles

Conference (6 outputs)

Year Citation Altmetrics Link
2016 Stokes BJ, Tuyl F, Hudson I, 'Equidistribution testing with Bayes factors and the ECT', AIP Conference Proceedings, 1757 (2016)
DOI 10.1063/1.4959055
Co-authors Irene Hudson
2013 Stokes B, Tuyl F, Hudson IL, 'A New Implementation of Nested Sampling', Proceedings of 33rd International Workshop on Bayesian Inference and Maximum Entropy Methods in Science and Engineering (2013) [E3]
Co-authors Irene Hudson
2011 Tuyl FA, 'Were Clopper & Pearson (1934) too careful?', Proceedings of the 4th Applied Statistics Education and Research Collaboration (ASEARC) Conference (2011) [E1]
2010 Tuyl FA, Gerlach R, Mengersen K, 'Conditional confidence of binomial intervals', Australian Statistical Conference (ASC2010) - Statistics in the West: Understanding our World. Program and Abstracts (2010) [E3]
2009 Tuyl FA, 'Diagnostic testing: A simple approximate interval for the positive predictive value', ASEARC: Proceedings of the Third Annual ASEARC Research Conference (2009) [E1]
2004 Tuyl FA, 'Confidence Intervals for a Proportion - A Practitioner's View', Conference Handbook (2004) [E3]
Show 3 more conferences

Report (1 outputs)

Year Citation Altmetrics Link
2014 Moffiet T, Tuyl FA, Hudson IL, Tursan d'Espaignet E, 'Literature review into existing tobacco projection tools: A blueprint to allow practical development of a projection tool', WHO Organization Tobacco Free Initiative, Comprehensive Information Systems for Tobacco Control and MAPS (2014) [R2]
Co-authors Trevor Moffiet, Irene Hudson
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Grants and Funding

Summary

Number of grants 9
Total funding $611,862

Click on a grant title below to expand the full details for that specific grant.


20162 grants / $78,789

Project to produce estimation of mortality gains from possible interventions to reduce tobacco use in the WHO Interactive Smoking Projection Tool (ISPT).$52,520

Funding body: World Health Organisation

Funding body World Health Organisation
Project Team Doctor Frank Tuyl, Professor Irene Hudson
Scheme Research Grant
Role Lead
Funding Start 2016
Funding Finish 2016
GNo G1600900
Type Of Funding International - Non Competitive
Category 3IFB
UON Y

Project to adjust method to generate prevalence trends in tobacco smoking with a logistic function and to enable mortality gains from tobacco interventions$26,269

Funding body: World Health Organisation

Funding body World Health Organisation
Project Team Doctor Frank Tuyl, Professor Irene Hudson, Dr Edouard Tursan d'Espaignet
Scheme Research Grant
Role Lead
Funding Start 2016
Funding Finish 2016
GNo G1600593
Type Of Funding International - Non Competitive
Category 3IFB
UON Y

20151 grants / $35,459

Development of method to measure potential mortality impact and potential lives saved and propose timetable and methods into the WHO Interactive Smoking Projection Tool$35,459

Funding body: World Health Organisation

Funding body World Health Organisation
Project Team Doctor Frank Tuyl, Professor Irene Hudson, Dr Edouard Tursan d'Espaignet
Scheme Research Grant
Role Lead
Funding Start 2015
Funding Finish 2015
GNo G1501133
Type Of Funding International - Non Competitive
Category 3IFB
UON Y

20143 grants / $203,253

Development of a statistical method to estimate past, current and future prevalence of tobacco use at country, regional and global levels$175,000

Funding body: Department of Health

Funding body Department of Health
Project Team Doctor Frank Tuyl, Professor Irene Hudson, Dr Edouard Tursan d'Espaignet
Scheme Investment in Preventative Health - Tobacco Harm Minimisation
Role Lead
Funding Start 2014
Funding Finish 2014
GNo G1300991
Type Of Funding Other Public Sector - Commonwealth
Category 2OPC
UON Y

Literature review into existing tobacco projection tools and development of a blueprint that would allow for exploration of possible interventions necessary to achieve tobacco targets$26,823

Funding body: World Health Organisation

Funding body World Health Organisation
Project Team Doctor Frank Tuyl, Professor Irene Hudson, Dr Edouard Tursan d'Espaignet
Scheme Research Grant
Role Lead
Funding Start 2014
Funding Finish 2016
GNo G1401345
Type Of Funding International - Non Competitive
Category 3IFB
UON Y

Faculty PVC Conference Assistance Grant 2014$1,430

Funding body: University of Newcastle - Faculty of Science & IT

Funding body University of Newcastle - Faculty of Science & IT
Project Team Doctor Frank Tuyl
Scheme PVC Conference Assistance Grant
Role Lead
Funding Start 2014
Funding Finish 2014
GNo G1401238
Type Of Funding Internal
Category INTE
UON Y

20131 grants / $2,000

Faculty PVC Conference Assistance Grant 2013$2,000

Funding body: University of Newcastle - Faculty of Science & IT

Funding body University of Newcastle - Faculty of Science & IT
Project Team Doctor Frank Tuyl
Scheme PVC Conference Assistance Grant
Role Lead
Funding Start 2013
Funding Finish 2013
GNo G1401179
Type Of Funding Internal
Category INTE
UON Y

20091 grants / $267,361

20081 grants / $25,000

Upgrade of computer equipment for the computer assisted telephone generalised electronic system$25,000

Funding body: NHMRC (National Health & Medical Research Council)

Funding body NHMRC (National Health & Medical Research Council)
Project Team Professor John Wiggers, Conjoint Professor Afaf Girgis, Conjoint Professor David Durrheim, Associate Professor Jennifer Bowman, Conjoint Associate Professor Andrew Bell, Associate Professor Christine Paul, Conjoint Associate Professor Raoul Walsh, Dr Edouard Tursan d'Espaignet, Ms Lyn Francis, Doctor Frank Tuyl, Associate Professor Erica James, Doctor Allison Boyes, Doctor Luke Wolfenden, Doctor Libby Campbell
Scheme Equipment Grant
Role Investigator
Funding Start 2008
Funding Finish 2008
GNo G0188548
Type Of Funding Other Public Sector - Commonwealth
Category 2OPC
UON Y
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Research Supervision

Number of supervisions

Completed1
Current4

Total current UON EFTSL

PhD1.2

Current Supervision

Commenced Level of Study Research Title / Program / Supervisor Type
2016 PhD Multivariate Methods
PhD (Statistics), Faculty of Science and Information Technology, The University of Newcastle
Co-Supervisor
2015 PhD Analysis of Performance Indicators in Oman Higher Education
PhD (Statistics), Faculty of Science and Information Technology, The University of Newcastle
Co-Supervisor
2014 PhD Bayesian Interval Estimation and Performance Measurement
PhD (Statistics), Faculty of Science and Information Technology, The University of Newcastle
Co-Supervisor
2013 PhD Development, Implementation, and Applications of Nested Sampling
PhD (Statistics), Faculty of Science and Information Technology, The University of Newcastle
Principal Supervisor

Past Supervision

Year Level of Study Research Title / Program / Supervisor Type
2013 PhD Application of Smooth Tests of Goodness of Fit to Generalized Linear Models
PhD (Statistics), Faculty of Science and Information Technology, The University of Newcastle
Principal Supervisor
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Dr Frank Tuyl

Position

Lecturer
School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences
Faculty of Science and Information Technology

Focus area

Statistics

Contact Details

Email frank.tuyl@newcastle.edu.au
Phone (02) 4921 8854
Fax (02) 4921 6898

Office

Room V24
Building Mathematics
Location Callaghan
University Drive
Callaghan, NSW 2308
Australia
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