Dr Tahir Hassen

Background: While the importance of women's participation in household decision making in enhancing access to healthcare services is widely acknowledged, limited evidence exists on the link between women's participation in household decision making and skilled birth attendants (SBA) supervised delivery. This study aims to fill this gap by examining the effects of women's participation in household decision making on SBA supervised delivery in Bangladesh. Methods: Data of 3607 mothers who had given birth within 2 years of the survey date were extracted from the 2022 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) and analyzed. The outcome variable considered was SBA supervised delivery, and the primary explanatory variable was a composite index of women's participation in household decision making generated from their responses regarding decision-making on own healthcare, large household purchases, and visits to their family or relatives. Multi-level mixed-effects logistic regression was used to explore the effects of women's participation in household decision making on SBA supervised delivery, adjusted for potential confounders. Results: The reported prevalence of SBA supervised delivery was 70%. Women lacking participation power and moderately empowerment in household decision-making were 15% (aOR= 0.85, 95% CI: 0.66-1.08) and 20% less likely to had SBA supervised delivery (aOR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.64-0.99) compared to those with high participation power, respectively. This association remained consistent across all 3 empowerment domains, with lower likelihoods of SBA supervised delivery among women lacking empowerment. Conclusion: The findings of this research affirm the positive effects of women's participation in household decision making on SBA supervised delivery in Bangladesh. Recommendations include increasing women's empowerment in household decision making and raising awareness and education about the importance of SBA supervised delivery.

Background Short birth interval is associated with an increased risk of adverse health outcomes for mothers and children. Despite this, there is a lack of comprehensive evidence on short birth interval in the Asia-Pacific region. Thus, this study aimed to synthesise evidence related to the definition, classification, prevalence, and predictors of short birth interval in the Asia-Pacific region. Methods Five databases (MEDLINE, Scopus, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Maternity and Infant Care, and Web of Science) were searched for studies published between September 2000 and May 2023 (the last search was conducted for all databases in May 2023). We included original studies published in English that reported on short birth interval in the Asia-Pacific region. Studies that combined birth interval with birth order, used multi-country data and were published as conference abstracts and commentaries were excluded. Three independent reviewers screened the articles for relevancy, and two reviewers performed the data extraction and quality assessment. The risk of bias was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tool. The findings were both qualitatively and quantitatively synthesised and presented. Results A total of 140 studies met the inclusion criteria for this review. About 58% (n=82) of the studies defined short birth interval, while 42% (n=58) did not. Out of 82 studies, nearly half (n=39) measured a birth-to-birth interval, 37 studies measured a birth-to-pregnancy, four measured a pregnancy-to-pregnancy, and two studies measured a pregnancy loss-to-conception. Approximately 39% (n=55) and 6% (n=8) of studies classified short birth intervals as <24 months and <33 months, respectively. Most of the included studies were cross-sectional, and about two-thirds had either medium or high risk of bias. The pooled prevalence of short birth interval was 33.8% (95%con-fidence interval (CI)=23.0¿44.6, I2=99.9%, P<0.01) among the studies that used the World Health Organization definition. Conclusions This review's findings highlighted significant variations in the definition, measurement, classification, and reported prevalence of short birth interval across the included studies. Future research is needed to harmonise the definition and classification of short birth interval to ensure consistency and comparability across studies and facilitate the development of targeted interventions and policies. Registration PROSPERO CRD42023426975.

The rapid epidemiological transition in Asian countries, resulting from the rising trend of urbanisation and lifestyle changes, is associated with an increasing risk of obesity in women of reproductive age. This is the first study to investigate the trends and population-attributable fraction (PAF) of obesity, and the interaction effects of education and wealth on obesity among reproductive-age women aged 15¿49 years in ten Asian countries. This cross-sectional study examined the most recent (2000 to 2022) Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data from ten Central and Southeast Asian countries. Multilevel multinomial logistic regression models were used to compute odds ratios (ORs). PAFs adjusted for communality were calculated using adjusted ORs and prevalence estimates for each risk factor. This study included a weighted sample of 743,494 reproductive-age women. All the countries showed an increasing trend for obesity and a decreasing trend for underweight, except for the Maldives. The highest PAFs of obesity were associated with women who were married (PAF = 22.2%; 95% CI 22.1, 22.4), aged 35¿49 years (PAF = 16.4%; 95% CI 15.5, 17.1), resided in wealthy households (PAF = 14.5%; 95% CI 14.4, 14.5), watched television regularly (PAF = 12.5%; 95% CI 12.1, 12.8), and lived in urban areas (PAF = 7.8%; 95% CI 7.7, 8.0). The combined PAF showed that these five risk factors were associated with 73.3% (95% CI 71.8, 74.9) of obesity among reproductive-age women. Interaction analysis between women's education and household wealth revealed that having a secondary or higher level of education and residing in a wealthier household was associated with a lower risk of obesity (OR = 0.71, 95% CI 0.66, 0.76). The findings of this study suggest that, in order to address the rising rate of obesity among women in Asian countries, education and lifestyle modifications in urban areas should be a priority. Pakistan and the Maldives need to be a priority given the rapidly increasing trends in obesity and underweight subpopulations in their respective countries.

Background Short inter-pregnancy or birth interval is associated with an increased risk of adverse perinatal outcomes. However, some emerging evidence questions this association and there are also inconsistencies among the existing findings. This study aimed to systematically review the evidence regarding the effect of short inter-pregnancy or birth intervals on adverse perinatal outcomes in the Asia-Pacific region. Methods A comprehensive search of five databases was conducted targeting studies published between 2000 to 2023. Studies that reported on short inter-pregnancy or birth interval and examined adverse perinatal outcomes, such as low birthweight (LBW) preterm birth (PTB), small for gestational age (SGA), and neonatal mortality were included and appraised for methodological quality using the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tools. Three reviewers independently screened the studies and performed data extraction. Narrative synthesis and meta-analyses were conducted to summarise the key findings. Results A total of 41 studies that fulfilled the inclusion criteria were included. A short-interpregnancy interval was associated with an increased risk of low birthweight (odds ratio [OR] = 1.65; 95%CI:1.39, 1.95), preterm birth (OR = 1.50; 95%CI: 1.35, 1.66), and small for gestational age (OR = 1.24; 95%CI:1.09, 1.41). We also found elevated odds of early neonatal mortality (OR = 1.91; 95%CI: 1.11, 3.29) and neonatal mortality (OR = 1.78; 95%CI: 1.25, 2.55) among women with short birth intervals. Conclusion This review indicates that both short inter-pregnancy and birth interval increased the risk of adverse perinatal outcomes. This underscores the importance of advocating for and implementing strategies to promote optimal pregnancy and birth spacing to reduce the occurrence of adverse perinatal outcomes. Reproductive health policies and programs need to be further strengthened and promote access to comprehensive family planning services and increase awareness about the importance of optimal pregnancy and birth spacing.

Objectives: This study aimed to identify the individual- and community-level determinants of mothers' healthcare-seeking behaviour for children under the age of 5 years with acute respiratory infection (ARI) symptoms in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). Study design: Nationally representative Demographic and Health Survey datasets from 29 LMICs were used. Methods: The study included 16,893 children aged under 5 years with ARI symptoms in the 2 weeks prior to the survey. A multilevel logistic regression model was used to examine associations between individual- and community-level factors with health-seeking behaviour for ARIs. The adjusted odds ratio (AOR) along with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were reported as a measure of association. Results: The overall prevalence of healthcare-seeking behaviour for ARIs among children under 5 years in LMICs was 58.83% (95% CI: 58.08, 59.57). Findings showed that mothers with primary or higher education (AOR = 1.20; 95% CI: 1.08, 1.33), and those residing in rich households (AOR = 1.32; 95% CI: 1.18, 1.48), attending antenatal care (ANC) visits (AOR = 1.53; 95% CI: 1.31, 1.79) and delivering at a healthcare facility (AOR = 1.28; 95% CI: 1.16, 1.41) were more likely to seek healthcare for ARIs. A higher level of community maternal education (AOR = 1.44; 95% CI: 1.24, 1.68) was positively associated with seeking healthcare for ARIs, while a higher level of community poverty (AOR = 0.83; 95% CI: 0.72, 0.96) was negatively associated with healthcare seeking for ARIs. Conclusions: This study revealed that mothers' healthcare-seeking behaviour for ARIs was closely linked to modifiable risk factors, including maternal education, household wealth, use of maternal health services (e.g., ANC), as well as community poverty and literacy levels. Future interventions should consider these modifiable risk factors when developing strategies to improve child health outcomes in LMICs.

Background: Neural tube defects (NTDs) are serious brain and spine birth defects. Although NTDs are primarily pregnancy complications, such as abortion and stillbirth, they also contribute to under-five morbidity and mortality, as well as long-term disability and psychological impact. Despite these negative outcomes, the determinants of NTDs are not widely studied in Ethiopia, particularly in the country's east. As a result, we sought to identify the risk factors for NTDs in neonates born in public referral hospitals in eastern Ethiopia. Methods: A facility-based unmatched case-control study was carried out at Hiwot Fana Comprehensive Specialized Hospital and Sheik Hassen Yabare Jigjiga University Referral Hospital in Eastern Ethiopia. We included 59 cases identified in the selected facilities between September 10, 2021, and February 5, 2022, and 118 control neonates, with a case-to-control ratio of 1:2. Data were gathered through the use of interviewer-administered questionnaires and medical record review. To identify determinant factors of NTDs, a multivariable logistic regression model was used, which included all predictor variables from the bivariable analysis. The results were reported using an Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) with a 95% confidence interval. A p-value of < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: In total, 59 cases of NTDs were identified out of 2915 live birth total births registered in the two hospitals, making the incidence of NTDs 202.4/10,000 births. In the final model analysis, determinant factors such as gender of newborn [AOR = 2.97; 95%CI(1.27, 6.92)], having no history of antenatal care[AOR = 4.45;95%CI(1.30,15.20)], having a poor food consumption score (AOR = 3.38;95% CI;1.06,10.72), having history of monotonous diet consumption (AOR = 4.80; 95%CI: 1.09, 9.08; P = 0.038), and coffee consumption of three or more cups per day during pregnancy (AOR = 3.84:95% CI: 1.23, 11.97) were statistically associated with NTDs. Conclusion: Modifiable and non-modifiable determinants were identified as major contributors of neural tube defect in this study. Early screening, dietary intervention counseling to increase consumption of a healthy diet, coffee consumption reduction, and pre-pregnancy supplementation programs should be developed to reduce NTDs in Ethiopia.

Background: It is well known that the magnitude of undernutrition in Ethiopia is unacceptably high. The burden of co-occurrence of iron, folate, and vitamin A deficiency, on the other hand, has received less attention. Thus, in this study, we looked at the prevalence of iron, folate, and vitamin A deficiency in pregnant women in eastern Ethiopia. Methods: A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 397 pregnant women in Haramaya district, eastern Ethiopia. An interview-assisted questionnaire and blood serum were collected from pregnant women using standard techniques and shipped to an EPHI for micronutrient analysis. Factors associated with the co-occurrence of iron, folate, and vitamin A deficiency were identified using binary and multiple logistic regressions. Results: According to this study, 81.6% of the participants were deficient in at least one micronutrient, and 53.53.2% were deficient in two or more. Women who did not receive iron-folic acid supplementation (AOR = 2.44; 95% CI = 1.52¿3.92), did not attend Antenatal care (ANC) follow up (AOR = 2.88; 95% CI = 1.81¿4.61), and reported low consumption of diversified diet (AOR = 2.18 (95% CI = 1.35¿3.51) had a higher risk of co-occurrence of iron, folate, and vitamin A deficiency. Conclusion: This study found that more than half of pregnant women were in multiple micronutrients, indicating a major public health issue. In addition to the IFA supplementation programs that are already in place, there is a need for multiple micronutrient supplementation.

Background: Antenatal care (ANC) is the care given to pregnant women to prevent poor feto-maternal outcomes during pregnancy. The World Health Organization recommends first ANC visit be started as early as possible within in 12 weeks of gestation. Although there is improvement in overall ANC coverage, a sizable proportion of pregnant women in Ethiopia delay the time to initiate their first ANC visit. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate factors associated with late ANC initiation among pregnant women attending public health centers in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Methods: A facility-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 407 randomly selected pregnant women who attended ANC at selected public health centers in Addis Ababa from December 2020 to January 2021. Data were collected using pretested and structured questionnaires through a face-to-face interview and reviewing medical records. Binary and multivariable logistic regressions were fitted sequentially to identify predictors for late ANC initiation. Adjusted odds ratios with 95% CI were computed to measure the strength of associations and statistical significance was declared at a p-value < 0.05. Result: This study showed that 47% of pregnant women started their first ANC visit late.The age of 30 years and above, being married, unplanned pregnancy, having a wrong perception about the timing of the first ANC visit, and not having ANC for previous pregnancy was significantly associated with late ANC initiation. Conclusion: Nearly half of the women initiated their first ANC visit late. Tailored interventions aimed at promoting early ANC initiation should target married women, women with an unplanned pregnancy, women who perceived the wrong timing of their first ANC, and those who have no ANC for their previous pregnancy.

Background: Anemia affects more than a quarter of non-pregnant women over the globe, with Sub-Saharan Africa bearing a disproportionate share. Although the use of family planning is beneficial in reducing anemia, lack of scientific study on anemia among family planning users of reproductive-age women is notable, particularly in the study setting. The purpose of this study was to determine the extent of anemia and associated factors in women who used family planning. Methods: A cross-sectional multi-centered study was conducted from March 3 to 29, 2019, among 443 non-pregnant reproductive age (15 to 49 years) women receiving family planning services in Ambo town. Sample size was calculated using Epi-info version 7 software. Participants were selected by systematic random sampling technique. Trained data collectors collected data using a structured pretested questionnaire, as well as venous blood and stool samples. Epi-Data and SPSS were used to enter and analyze data. The effect of independent variables on the outcome variable was determined by binary logistic regression analysis with adjusted odds ratio at 95% confidence interval and 5% margin of error. P-value <0.05 was used to declare statistical significance. Results: This study revealed 28% (95% CI:23.9%, 32.3%) magnitude of anemia. Age of 25¿35 years [AOR:2.84, 95% CI:1.74, 4.64], implantable family planning method [AOR: 0.34, 95% CI: 0.12, 0.96], no previous use of family planning [AOR:2.62, 95% CI: 1.62, 4.24], household food insecurity [AOR: 2.04, 95% CI: 1.06, 3.93], parasite infestations [AOR:2.01, 95% CI: 1.12, 3.63], and regular intake of coffee/tea within 30 minutes post meal [AOR:3.85, 95% CI:1.24, 11.92] were independently associated with anemia. Conclusion: Anemia is a moderate public health concern among reproductive-age women receiving family planning services in the study area. There are missed opportunities to address the anemia burden during family planning services. This study emphasizes the importance of nutritional screening for early detection and targeted interventions for healthcare workers in reducing missed opportunities to prevent and control anemia in vulnerable populations.

Objectives: The evidence on utilization of immediate postpartum intrauterine contraceptive devices (IPPIUCDs) and its associated factors are limited in Ethiopia. Hence, this study intended to assess IPPIUCD utilization and related factors among women who gave birth in Adama town public hospitals, Ethiopia. Method: A facility-based cross-sectional study was done among 493 postpartum mothers at selected government health facilities in Adama town from January 20 to February 20, 2021. All women who gave birth in selected government health facilities and within 48 h of postpartum were included in the study. Data were collected using an interviewer-administered questionnaire. Logistic regression models were used to identify the factors associated with IPPIUCD utilization. Adjusted odds ratios (AORs) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated to measure the strength of association and statistical significance was declared at p < 0.05. Result: In this study, 22.1% (95% CI: 17.3¿25.2) of the mothers used IPPIUCDs within 48 h of giving birth. Having three or more children (AOR = 4.18, 95% CI: 1.79¿9.79), having no desire to have another child (AOR = 3.9, 95% CI: 1.86¿8.17), counseling after delivery (AOR = 3.1 95% CI: 1.52¿6.34), and having good knowledge about PPIUCD (AOR = 3.82, 95% CI: 1.94¿7.49) were significantly associated with IPPIUCD utilization. Conclusion: The utilization of IPPIUCD in this study was low. Strategies to raise pregnant mothers' awareness of IPPIUCD through mass media, and integrating standard counseling on immediate postpartum intrauterine device (IPPIUD) during antenatal care, and the immediate postpartum period are required to improve IPPIUD utilization.

Introduction: Infertility is one of the public health problems affecting a significant number of women in the reproductive age group. Although female fertility is predominantly affected by gynecological and systemic diseases, lifestyle and nutritional factors also play an important role in secondary female infertility. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the pooled prevalence of secondary female infertility and its association with undernutrition using nationwide data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) of eastern African countries. Methods: The data of ten East African countries that comprise a weighted sample of 38,020 women data were accessed from measure DHS. Data processing and analysis were performed using STATA 15 software. A multilevel mixed-effect logistic regression model was fitted to examine the association between undernutrition and secondary infertility. Variables with a p-value < 0.05 were declared as significant factors associated with secondary infertility. Model comparison was done based on Akaike and Bayesian Information Criteria (AIC and BIC). To measure variation (random effects), Community-level variance with standard deviation and intra-cluster correlation coefficient (ICC) was used. Result: The proportion of women who have secondary infertility was 16.32% with 95%CI (15.96, 16.69), of which 26.94% were undernourished. This study found that being undernutrition (AOR = 1.74; 95%CI: 1.54¿1.98) and overweight (AOR = 1.72; 95%CI: 1.62¿1.86) were significantly associated with secondary infertility. Women aged >35 years (AOR = 3.47; 95%CI: 2.66¿4.55), and rural residents (AOR = 1.16; 95%CI: 1.02¿1.37) are other factors that are positively associated with secondary infertility. However, primary education (AOR = 0.87; 95%CI: 0.77¿0.97) and richer wealth index (AOR = 0.84; 95%CI: 0.73¿0.97) are protective factors for secondary infertility. Conclusion: This study indicated that there is a strong association between secondary infertility and undernutrition growing in Eastern Africa. Therefore, Health information dissemination and awareness creation on the impact of malnutrition on infertility should be given to the community and health care providers. Given this, it may lead to integrating nutrition counseling into both clinical settings for infertility management as well as national dietary guidelines for individuals of reproductive age.

Introduction Twin pregnancy carries a high risk of pregnancy-related complications including adverse perinatal outcomes. Although evidence from international studies indicated an increased risk of adverse perinatal outcomes in twin pregnancies, little is known about the adverse perinatal outcomes in twin pregnancies and associated factors in Ethiopia. The purpose of this study was, therefore, to estimate the incidence of twin pregnancies and related-adverse perinatal outcomes and identify factors associated with adverse perinatal outcomes in twin pregnancies in Ethiopia. Methods A hospital-based retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted among 322 mothers who gave twin birth at Adama Hospital Medical College between 08 July 2015 and 07 June 2017. In this study, the adverse perinatal outcome was defined as the presence of any of the following main conditions: low birth weight, preterm birth, stillbirth, low Apgar Scores, mal-presentation, Admission to neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU), and early neonatal deaths. The data were analyzed using SPSS version 20.0. Multivariable logistic regression was conducted to identify factors associated with adverse perinatal outcome at 95% CI or P-value of less than 0.05. Result Of 10,850 births recorded in the hospital, 354 births were twins and 322 of these paired records had complete perinatal information. One hundred ninety-nine (61.8%) of the 322 paired birth records had at least one adverse perinatal outcome on one or both twins. Low birth weight was the most common perinatal outcome followed by preterm birth. After adjusting for confounding factors, younger maternal age (AOR = 4.1, 95% CI; 1.3, 12.5) and not having ultrasound scan during antenatal care (AOR = 2.0, 95% CI: 1.2, 3.1) were significantly associated with adverse perinatal outcomes. Conclusion The incidence of adverse perinatal outcome in twin pregnancies was high, that is, in 61.8% of twin births, there was at least one adverse perinatal outcome on one or both twins. Moreover, younger maternal age at birth and not having an ultrasound scan during antenatal care were found to be strong predictors for the observed high incidence of adverse perinatal outcomes.

This study aimed to evaluate the association of the five-minute Apgar score and neurodevelopmental outcomes in children by taking the entire range of Apgar scores into account. Data from the Australian Longitudinal Study of Women's Health (ALSWH) and Mothers and their Children's Health (MatCH) study were linked with Australian state-based Perinatal Data Collections (PDCs) for 809 children aged 8-66 months old. Generalized estimating equations were used to model the association between the five-minute Apgar scores and neurodevelopmental outcomes, using STATA software V.15. Of the 809 children, 614 (75.3%) had a five-minute Apgar score of 9, and 130 (16.1%) had an Apgar score of 10. Approximately 1.9% and 6.2% had Apgar scores of 0-6 and 7-8, respectively. Sixty-nine (8.5%) of children had a neurodevelopmental delay. Children with an Apgar score of 0-6 (AOR = 5.7; 95% CI: 1.2, 27.8) and 7-8 (AOR = 4.1; 95% CI: 1.2, 14.1) had greater odds of gross-motor neurodevelopment delay compared to children with an Apgar score of 10. Further, when continuously modelled, the five-minute Apgar score was inversely associated with neurodevelopmental delay (AOR = 0.75; 95% CI: 0.60, 0.93). Five-minute Apgar score was independently and inversely associated with a neurodevelopmental delay, and the risks were higher even within an Apgar score of 7-8. Hence, the Apgar score may need to be taken into account when evaluating neurodevelopmental outcomes in children.

Background: Neonatal Near Miss (NNM) is a situation where a newborn narrowly survived the neonatal period. It has been hypothesized that identifying factors that contribute to the occurrence of NNM and taking timely interventions could enhance the quality of newborn care. However, there is limited evidence in Australia. This study aimed to identify the determinants of NNM in Australia. Methods: Data from the 1973¿78 cohort of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH) were linked with state-based Perinatal Data Collections (PDC) for 3655 mothers and 5526 newborns who were born between 01 January 2007 and 31 December 2015. A newborn was considered as a near miss case if presented with any of the pragmatic criteria (gestational age <32 weeks, birth weight <1500 g, five-minute Apgar score <7) and survived the neonatal period. A multilevel multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify the determinants of NNM. Results: Of the total 5526 live births included in this study, 95 live births met the criteria for NNM, corresponding to an incidence of 17.2 per 1000 live births. After controlling for potential confounders, maternal age 31¿34 years (AOR = 2.57; 95% CI: 1.05, 6.30) and 35 years and above (AOR = 4.03; 95% CI: 1.58, 10.31), caesarean section (AOR = 2.24; 95% CI: 1.09, 4.57), and gestational hypertension (AOR = 2.63; 95% CI: 1.21, 5.71) increased the odds of NNM. Conclusion: Inclusion of NNM evaluations into newborn care and early screening and interventions for women who become pregnant at older age and those with pregnancy complications could improve the quality of newborn care and reduce neonatal morbidity.

Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved. BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.METHODS: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI).FINDINGS: Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa.INTERPRETATION: Declin...

Background: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian metaregression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and pri...