Professor Richard McGee

Background: Excessive opioid prescribing following surgery contributes to the growing opioid crisis. Prescribing practices are modifiable, yet data to guide appropriate prescription of opioids at surgical discharge remain sparse. This study aimed to evaluate factors associated with opioid consumption following discharge from surgery. Methods: An international prospective multicentre cohort study was performed recruiting adult patients undergoing common general, orthopaedic, gynaecological and urological surgery, with follow-up 7 days after discharge. The primary outcome measures were the quantities of prescribed and consumed opioids in oral morphine milligram equivalents. Descriptive and multivariable analyses were performed to investigate factors associated with the primary outcome measures. Results: This analysis included 4273 patients from 144 hospitals in 25 countries. Overall, 1311 (30.7%) patients were prescribed opioids at discharge. For those patients prescribed opioids, mean (SD) 179 (240) oral morphine milligram equivalents were prescribed, yet only 81 (145) oral morphine milligram equivalents were consumed within the first 7 days after discharge. An increased dose of opioids prescribed at discharge was associated with an increased dose of opioids consumed during the follow-up period (ß = 0.33 (95%CI 0.31¿0.34), p < 0.001). The risk of prescribing more opioids than patients consumed increased as quantities of opioids prescribed at discharge exceeded 100 oral morphine milligram equivalents, independent of patient comorbidity, procedure and pain. Patients were prescribed more than twice the quantity of opioids they consumed in the first 7 days following discharge from surgery. Conclusions: Our data suggest that the current quantities of opioids provided at discharge exceed patient needs and may contribute to increasing community opioid use and circulation.

Background: Pulmonary complications are the most common cause of death after surgery. This study aimed to derive and externally validate a novel prognostic model that can be used before elective surgery to estimate the risk of postoperative pulmonary complications and to support resource allocation and prioritisation during pandemic recovery. Methods: Data from an international, prospective cohort study were used to develop a novel prognostic risk model for pulmonary complications after elective surgery in adult patients (aged =18 years) across all operation and disease types. The primary outcome measure was postoperative pulmonary complications at 30 days after surgery, which was a composite of pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, and unexpected mechanical ventilation. Model development with candidate predictor variables was done in the GlobalSurg-CovidSurg Week dataset (global; October, 2020). Two structured machine learning techniques were explored (XGBoost and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator [LASSO]), and the model with the best performance (GSU-Pulmonary Score) underwent internal validation using bootstrap resampling. The discrimination and calibration of the score were externally validated in two further prospective cohorts: CovidSurg-Cancer (worldwide; February to August, 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic) and RECON (UK and Australasia; January to October, 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic). The model was deployed as an online web application. The GlobalSurg-CovidSurg Week and CovidSurg-Cancer studies were registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04509986 and NCT04384926. Findings: Prognostic models were developed from 13 candidate predictor variables in data from 86 231 patients (1158 hospitals in 114 countries). External validation included 30 492 patients from CovidSurg-Cancer (726 hospitals in 75 countries) and 6789 from RECON (150 hospitals in three countries). The overall rates of pulmonary complications were 2·0% in derivation data, and 3·9% (CovidSurg-Cancer) and 4·7% (RECON) in the validation datasets. Penalised regression using LASSO had similar discrimination to XGBoost (area under the receiver operating curve [AUROC] 0·786, 95% CI 0·774¿0·798 vs 0·785, 0·772¿0·797), was more explainable, and required fewer covariables. The final GSU-Pulmonary Score included ten predictor variables and showed good discrimination and calibration upon internal validation (AUROC 0·773, 95% CI 0·751¿0·795; Brier score 0·020, calibration in the large [CITL] 0·034, slope 0·954). The model performance was acceptable on external validation in CovidSurg-Cancer (AUROC 0·746, 95% CI 0·733¿0·760; Brier score 0·036, CITL 0·109, slope 1·056), but with some miscalibration in RECON data (AUROC 0·716, 95% CI 0·689¿0·744; Brier score 0·045, CITL 1·040, slope 1·009). Interpretation: This novel prognostic risk score uses simple predictor variables available at the time of a decision for elective surgery that can accurately stratify patients' risk of postoperative pulmonary complications, including during SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks. It could inform surgical consent, resource allocation, and hospital-level prioritisation as elective surgery is upscaled to address global backlogs. Funding: National Institute for Health Research.

Background: Jellyfish envenomation is common in many coastal regions and varies¿in severity depending upon the species. Stings cause a variety of symptoms and signs including pain, dermatological reactions, and, in some species, Irukandji syndrome (which may include abdominal/back/chest pain, tachycardia, hypertension, cardiac phenomena, and, rarely, death). Many treatments have been suggested for these symptoms, but their effectiveness is unclear. This is an update of a Cochrane Review last published in 2013. Objectives: To determine the benefits and harms associated with the use of any intervention, in both adults and children, for the treatment of jellyfish stings, as assessed by randomised and quasi-randomised trials. Search methods: We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, and Web of Science up to 27 October 2022. We searched clinical trials registers and the grey literature, and conducted forward-citation searching of relevant articles. Selection criteria: We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-RCTs of any intervention given to treat stings from any species of jellyfish stings. Interventions were compared to another active intervention, placebo, or no treatment. If co-interventions were used, we included the study only if the co-intervention was used in each group. Data collection and analysis: We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane. Main results: We included nine studies (six RCTs and three quasi-RCTs) involving a total of 574 participants. We found one ongoing study. Participants were either stung accidentally, or were healthy volunteers exposed to stings in a laboratory setting. Type of jellyfish could not be confirmed in beach settings and was determined by investigators using participant and local information. We categorised interventions into comparison groups: hot versus cold applications; topical applications. A third comparison of parenteral administration included no relevant outcome data: a single study (39 participants) evaluated intravenous magnesium sulfate after stings from jellyfish that cause Irukandji syndrome (Carukia). No studies assessed a fourth comparison group of pressure immobilisation bandages. We downgraded the certainty of the evidence due to very serious risk of bias, serious and very serious imprecision, and serious inconsistency in some results. Application of heat versus application of cold. Four studies involved accidental stings treated on the beach or in hospital. Jellyfish were described as bluebottles (Physalia; location: Australia), and box jellyfish that do not cause Irukandji syndrome (Hawaiian box jellyfish (Carybdea alata) and major box jellyfish (Chironex fleckeri, location: Australia)). Treatments were applied with hot packs or hot water (showers, baths, buckets, or hoses), or ice packs or cold packs. The evidence for all outcomes was of very low certainty, thus we are unsure whether heat compared to cold leads to at least a clinically significant reduction in pain within six hours of stings from Physalia (risk ratio (RR) 2.25, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.42 to 3.56; 2 studies, 142 participants) or Carybdea alata and Chironex fleckeri (RR 1.66, 95% CI 0.56 to 4.94; 2 studies, 71 participants). We are unsure whether there is a difference in adverse events due to treatment (RR 0.50, 95% CI 0.05 to 5.19; 2 studies, 142 participants); these were minor adverse events reported for Physalia stings. We are also unsure whether either treatment leads to a clinically significant reduction in pain in the first hour (Physalia: RR 2.66, 95% CI 1.71 to 4.15; 1 study, 88 participants; Carybdea alata and Chironex fleckeri: RR 1.16, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.89; 1 study, 42 participants) or cessation of pain at the end of treatment (Physalia: RR 1.63, 95% CI 0.81 to 3.27; 1 study, 54 participants; Carybdea alata and Chironex fleckeri: RR 3.54, 95% CI 0.82 to 15.31; 1 study, 29 participants). Evidence for retreatment with the same intervention was only availa...

Outcomes reported in randomized controlled trials in peritoneal dialysis (PD) are diverse, are measured inconsistently, and may not be important to patients, families, and clinicians. The Standardized Outcomes in Nephrology¿Peritoneal Dialysis (SONG-PD) initiative aims to establish a core outcome set for trials in PD based on the shared priorities of all stakeholders. We convened an international SONG-PD stakeholder consensus workshop in May 2018 in Vancouver, Canada. Nineteen patients/caregivers and 51 health professionals attended. Participants discussed core outcome domains and implementation in trials in PD. Four themes relating to the formation of core outcome domains were identified: life participation as a main goal of PD, impact of fatigue, empowerment for preparation and planning, and separation of contributing factors from core factors. Considerations for implementation were identified: standardizing patient-reported outcomes, requiring a validated and feasible measure, simplicity of binary outcomes, responsiveness to interventions, and using positive terminology. All stakeholders supported inclusion of PD-related infection, cardiovascular disease, mortality, technique survival, and life participation as the core outcome domains for PD.

Aim: Perforation of the anterior cortex during femoral intramedullary nailing can be a major complication. We aim to determine the influence of entry point and radius of curvature on intramedullary nail position in the distal femur using a synthetic bone model. Methods: Using synthetic femora, the greater trochanter was measured and entry points marked in two planes. A standard recommended technique was used to insert two different Stryker Gamma 3 intramedullary nails of different radius of curvature. The synthetic femora were sectioned and the centre of nail to anterior cortex distance (CAD) was measured. Statistical interpretation of the results was performed using linear regression analyses. Results: We found that the more posterior entry points led to a more anterior placement in the distal femur in both nails of differing radius of curvature (11 mm and 13.5 mm CAD). The smaller radius of curvature led to a more central placement of the nail tip in the distal femur. Conclusion: Anterior penetration of the distal femur can be minimized by a more anterior entry point and with the use of a femoral intramedullary nail with a smaller radius of curvature. © 2014 Prof. P K Surendran Memorial Education Foundation.

This is the protocol for a review and there is no abstract. The objectives are as follows: To assess the safety and effectiveness of various contrast media, imaging modalities, pharmacological adjuvants, protocols for delayed repeat enema, and surgical approaches in the management of intussusception in children.