Dr Amanual Mersha

Effective smoking cessation medications (SCM) are available and are recommended for the treatment of tobacco smoking. In this study, we evaluated rate and factors associated with successful quitting among individuals who supported their quit attempt using SCMs in Australia. An observational online cross-sectional survey was conducted using a convenience sample of smokers and ex-smokers in Australia. A self-administered questionnaire was used to evaluate socio-demographic, psychological, smoking, and medication use characteristics. The Fagerstrom Test for Nicotine Dependence scale was used to assess the level of nicotine addiction. Logistic regression used to identify factors associated with smoking cessation. Of the 201 respondents, 33.3% had successfully quit smoking. Nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), varenicline, and bupropion were used by 71.6%, 19.9%, and 8.5% respectively. The rate of quitting was 30.6%, 47.5%, and 23.5% for participants who used NRT, varenicline, and bupropion, respectively. Six in ten (59.6%) of the participants who were adherent to SCMs reported continuous abstinence. Whereas 22.9% reported quitting among participants who were nonadherent to SCMs. Adherence to SCMs was significantly associated with increased rate of quitting (AOR = 2.67, 95% CI of 1.17¿6.10). Additionally, having smoke-free home was associated with successful smoking cessation (AOR = 2.34, 95% CI of 1.13¿4.90). In conclusion, one in three participants self-reported that they successfully quit smoking. Adherence to SCMs and smoke-free home were strongly associated with quitting. Smoking cessation programs and future studies are recommended to incorporate medication adherence as a core component. Home-targeted and family-inclusive interventions are recommended to manage smoke-free homes and enhance success of quitting attempts.

Background: A comprehensive understanding of temporal trends in the disease burden in Australia is lacking, and these trends are required to inform health service planning and improve population health. We explored the burden and trends of diseases and their risk factors in Australia from 1990 to 2019 through a comprehensive analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. Methods: In this systematic analysis for GBD 2019, we estimated all-cause mortality using the standardised GBD methodology. Data sources included primarily vital registration systems with additional data from sample registrations, censuses, surveys, surveillance, registries, and verbal autopsies. A composite measure of health loss caused by fatal and non-fatal disease burden (disability-adjusted life-years [DALYs]) was calculated as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs). Comparisons between Australia and 14 other high-income countries were made. Findings: Life expectancy at birth in Australia improved from 77·0 years (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 76·9¿77·1) in 1990 to 82·9 years (82·7¿83·1) in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, the age-standardised death rate decreased from 637·7 deaths (95% UI 634·1¿641·3) to 389·2 deaths (381·4¿397·6) per 100 000 population. In 2019, non-communicable diseases remained the major cause of mortality in Australia, accounting for 90·9% (95% UI 90·4¿91·9) of total deaths, followed by injuries (5·7%, 5·3¿6·1) and communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (3·3%, 2·9¿3·7). Ischaemic heart disease, self-harm, tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer, stroke, and colorectal cancer were the leading causes of YLLs. The leading causes of YLDs were low back pain, depressive disorders, other musculoskeletal diseases, falls, and anxiety disorders. The leading risk factors for DALYs were high BMI, smoking, high blood pressure, high fasting plasma glucose, and drug use. Between 1990 and 2019, all-cause DALYs decreased by 24·6% (95% UI 21·5¿28·1). Relative to similar countries, Australia's ranking improved for age-standardised death rates and life expectancy at birth but not for YLDs and YLLs between 1990 and 2019. Interpretation: An important challenge for Australia is to address the health needs of people with non-communicable diseases. The health systems must be prepared to address the increasing demands of non-communicable diseases and ageing. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Background: Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods: We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990¿2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings: In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (-28·4 to -2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (¿33·0 to -5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (-13·6% [¿28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (-13·6% [¿29·3 to 8·9]). Interpretation: Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Background: Due to the existence of inconsistencies in the evidence regarding the direction and extent of association between diabetes and anxiety disorders, the anxiety-diabetes comorbidity remains an issue of debate. Aim: To estimate the proportion and risk of diabetes among individuals with anxiety disorder and vice versa. Methods: A systematic review was conducted using studies retrieved from databases and grey literature, with the last database search being conducted on April 15, 2021. The methodological rigor of studies was assessed using the National Institute of Health quality assessment tool. Prevalence and effect size (ES) estimates were pooled using a random effect model. Heterogeneity was assessed using the Higgins' I2 statistical test, and subgroup analysis conducted. Results: We included 68 studies presenting data from 2,128,029 participants. The prevalence of anxiety disorders in diabetic patients was 28% (95% CI: 26%, 31%); however, subgroup analysis showed significant differences based on type of anxiety assessment scales, study location, and type of diabetes. The prevalence of diabetes among patients with anxiety disorders was 12% (95% CI: 9%, 16%). Patients with anxiety disorders were found to have a 19% higher risk of diabetes (pooled effect size (ES) = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.13, 1.26). Diabetic patients were found to have a 41% higher risk of developing anxiety disorders (ES = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.19, 1.62). Conclusions: There is a higher risk of anxiety disorders in patients with diabetes mellitus and vice versa. It is recommended to screen diabetic patients for anxiety at initial diagnosis and follow-up visits. Similarly, patients with anxiety disorders should have regular screening for diabetes. Review registration: PROSPERO registration number CRD42021252475.

Background: In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15¿39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. Methods: Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15¿39 years to define adolescents and young adults. Findings: There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11¿1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000¿425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15¿39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59·6 [54·5¿65·7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53·2 [48·8¿57·9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14·2 [12·9¿15·6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13·6 [12·6¿14·8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23·5 million (21·9¿25·2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2·7% (1·9¿3·6) came from YLDs and 97·3% (96·4¿98·1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally. Interpretation: Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities, St Baldrick's Foundation, and the National Cancer Institute.

Objective: To describe smoking characteristics, quitting behaviour and other factors associated with longest quit attempt and the use of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) and stop-smoking medication (SSM) in a population of Indigenous Australian women of reproductive age. Design, setting and participants: A national cross-sectional survey of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women aged 16¿49 years who were smokers or ex-smokers was conducted online during the period July to October 2020. Main outcome measures: Quitting experience: attempt to cut down, time since last quit attempt, longest period without smoking, attempt to cut down during last quit attempt, any use of NRT and/or SSM. Results: Most of the 428 participating women (302 [70.6%]) reported using an Aboriginal health service. Younger women (16¿20-year-olds) smoked fewer cigarettes daily (24/42 [57.1%], 0¿5 cigarettes per day), waited longer to smoke after waking (20/42 [47.6%], > 60 minutes after waking), and were categorised as low smoking dependency compared with those aged 35 years and over. One-third of women (153 [35.7%]) had ever used NRT and/or SSM. A greater proportion of older women (35¿49-year-olds) had sustained a quit attempt for years (62/149 [45.6%]) and reported trying NRT and/or SSM (78/149 [52.4%]) than women in younger age groups. Quitting suddenly rather than gradually was significantly associated with sustained abstinence (prevalence ratio, 1.27 [95% CI, 1.10¿1.48]). Among women who had never used NRT or SSM, most (219/275 [79.6%]) reported reasons for this in the category of attitudes and beliefs. NRT and SSM use was also more likely among women who were confident talking to their doctor about quitting (odds ratio, 2.50 [95% CI, 1.23¿5.10]) and those who received most of their information from a health professional (odds ratio, 1.71 [95% CI, 1.11¿2.63]). Conclusion: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women want to quit smoking and are making attempts to quit. Quitting suddenly, rather than reducing cigarette consumption, is associated with increased sustained abstinence. Health providers can enable access and uptake of NRT and/or SSM and should recognise that NRT and/or SSM use may change over time. Consistent messaging, frequent offers of smoking cessation support, and access to a range of smoking cessation supports should be provided to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women to enable them to be smoke-free.

Background: Previous Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) studies have reported national health estimates for Ethiopia. Substantial regional variations in socioeconomic status, population, demography, and access to health care within Ethiopia require comparable estimates at the subnational level. The GBD 2019 Ethiopia subnational analysis aimed to measure the progress and disparities in health across nine regions and two chartered cities. Methods: We gathered 1057 distinct data sources for Ethiopia and all regions and cities that included census, demographic surveillance, household surveys, disease registry, health service use, disease notifications, and other data for this analysis. Using all available data sources, we estimated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), total fertility rate (TFR), life expectancy, years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability-adjusted life-years, and risk-factor-attributable health loss with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for Ethiopia's nine regions and two chartered cities from 1990 to 2019. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, cause of death ensemble model, Bayesian meta-regression tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, and other models were used to generate fertility, mortality, cause of death, and disability rates. The risk factor attribution estimations followed the general framework established for comparative risk assessment. Findings: The SDI steadily improved in all regions and cities from 1990 to 2019, yet the disparity between the highest and lowest SDI increased by 54% during that period. The TFR declined from 6·91 (95% UI 6·59¿7·20) in 1990 to 4·43 (4·01¿4·92) in 2019, but the magnitude of decline also varied substantially among regions and cities. In 2019, TFR ranged from 6·41 (5·96¿6·86) in Somali to 1·50 (1·26¿1·80) in Addis Ababa. Life expectancy improved in Ethiopia by 21·93 years (21·79¿22·07), from 46·91 years (45·71¿48·11) in 1990 to 68·84 years (67·51¿70·18) in 2019. Addis Ababa had the highest life expectancy at 70·86 years (68·91¿72·65) in 2019; Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz had the lowest at 63·74 years (61·53¿66·01) for Afar and 64.28 (61.99-66.63) for Benishangul-Gumuz. The overall increases in life expectancy were driven by declines in under-5 mortality and mortality from common infectious diseases, nutritional deficiency, and war and conflict. In 2019, the age-standardised all-cause death rate was the highest in Afar at 1353·38 per 100 000 population (1195·69¿1526·19). The leading causes of premature mortality for all sexes in Ethiopia in 2019 were neonatal disorders, diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, tuberculosis, stroke, HIV/AIDS, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, congenital defects, and diabetes. With high SDIs and life expectancy for all sexes, Addis Ababa, Dire Dawa, and Harari had low rates of premature mortality from the five leading causes, whereas regions with low SDIs and life expectancy for all sexes (Afar and Somali) had high rates of premature mortality from the leading causes. In 2019, child and maternal malnutrition; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; air pollution; high systolic blood pressure; alcohol use; and high fasting plasma glucose were the leading risk factors for health loss across regions and cities. Interpretation: There were substantial improvements in health over the past three decades across regions and chartered cities in Ethiopia. However, the progress, measured in SDI, life expectancy, TFR, premature mortality, disability, and risk factors, was not uniform. Federal and regional health policy makers should match strategies, resources, and interventions to disease burden and risk factors across regions and cities to achieve national and regional plans, Sustainable Development Goals, and universal health coverage targets. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Background: Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets. Methods: The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-of-sample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B. Findings: In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 to 4·5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31·3% (29·0 to 33·9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76·8% (76·2 to 77·5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5·9% [¿5·6 to 19·2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2·9% [¿5·9 to 11·3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000. Interpretation: The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Background: Tuberculosis is a major contributor to the global burden of disease, causing more than a million deaths annually. Given an emphasis on equity in access to diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in global health targets, evaluations of differences in tuberculosis burden by sex are crucial. We aimed to assess the levels and trends of the global burden of tuberculosis, with an emphasis on investigating differences in sex by HIV status for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We used a Bayesian hierarchical Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) platform to analyse 21 505 site-years of vital registration data, 705 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis among HIV-negative individuals. We used a population attributable fraction approach to estimate mortality related to HIV and tuberculosis coinfection. A compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR 2.1) was then used to synthesise all available data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, population-based tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis cause-specific mortality, to produce estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality that were internally consistent. We further estimated the fraction of tuberculosis mortality that is attributable to independent effects of risk factors, including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes, for HIV-negative individuals. For individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, we assessed mortality attributable to HIV risk factors including unsafe sex, intimate partner violence (only estimated among females), and injection drug use. We present 95% uncertainty intervals for all estimates. Findings: Globally, in 2019, among HIV-negative individuals, there were 1·18 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·08¿1·29) deaths due to tuberculosis and 8·50 million (7·45¿9·73) incident cases of tuberculosis. Among HIV-positive individuals, there were 217 000 (153 000¿279 000) deaths due to tuberculosis and 1·15 million (1·01¿1·32) incident cases in 2019. More deaths and incident cases occurred in males than in females among HIV-negative individuals globally in 2019, with 342 000 (234 000¿425 000) more deaths and 1·01 million (0·82¿1·23) more incident cases in males than in females. Among HIV-positive individuals, 6250 (1820¿11 400) more deaths and 81 100 (63 300¿100 000) more incident cases occurred among females than among males in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates among HIV-negative males were more than two times greater in 105 countries and age-standardised incidence rates were more than 1·5 times greater in 74 countries than among HIV-negative females in 2019. The fraction of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals attributable to alcohol use, smoking, and diabetes was 4·27 (3·69¿5·02), 6·17 (5·48¿7·02), and 1·17 (1·07¿1·28) times higher, respectively, among males than among females in 2019. Among individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, the fraction of mortality attributable to injection drug use was 2·23 (2·03¿2·44) times greater among males than females, whereas the fraction due to unsafe sex was 1·06 (1·05¿1·08) times greater among females than males. Interpretation: As countries refine national tuberculosis programmes and strategies to end the tuberculosis epidemic, the excess burden experienced by males is important. Interventions are needed to actively communicate, especially to men, the importance of early diagnosis and treatment. These interventions should occur in parallel with efforts to minimise excess HIV burden among women in the highest HIV burden countries that are contributing to excess HIV and tuberculosis coinfection burden for females. Placing a focus on tuberculosis burden among HIV-negative males and HIV and tuberculosis coinfection among females might help to diminish the overall burden of tuberculosis. Th...

Issues: With the advancement and rapid increase in the public's interest in utilisation of Internet and mobile phones, technology-based interventions are being implemented across a range of health conditions to improve patient outcomes. The aim of this review was to summarise findings from systematic reviews that evaluated the effectiveness of technology-based smoking cessation interventions and to critically appraise their methodological qualities. Approach: An umbrella review was conducted using studies identified from a comprehensive literature search of six databases and grey literature. All included systematic reviews were checked for eligibility criteria and quality using the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews tool. The level of evidence for each intervention category was assessed, citation matrices were generated and corrected covered area was calculated. Key Findings: Five systematic reviews with a total of 212 randomised controlled trials and 237 760 participants were included. Fourteen intervention approaches were identified and classified into three categories: stand-alone web-based; stand-alone mobile phone-based and multicomponent interventions. Incorporating web and/or mobile-based interventions with face-to-face approach improved the rate of smoking cessation. However, there was no consistent evidence regarding the effectiveness of stand-alone Internet or mobile-based interventions. Implications: Policymakers are recommended to develop strategies that enable health professionals to integrate these approaches with face-to-face smoking cessation support. Health professionals are recommended to be trained and equipped for online and mobile-based interventions. Conclusion: Adding technology-based intervention to face-to-face smoking cessation support improves smoking cessation. Further research is needed to evaluate stand-alone web-based and mobile phone-based interventions.

Background: Hearing loss affects access to spoken language, which can affect cognition and development, and can negatively affect social wellbeing. We present updated estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study on the prevalence of hearing loss in 2019, as well as the condition's associated disability. Methods: We did systematic reviews of population-representative surveys on hearing loss prevalence from 1990 to 2019. We fitted nested meta-regression models for severity-specific prevalence, accounting for hearing aid coverage, cause, and the presence of tinnitus. We also forecasted the prevalence of hearing loss until 2050. Findings: An estimated 1·57 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·51¿1·64) people globally had hearing loss in 2019, accounting for one in five people (20·3% [19·5¿21·1]). Of these, 403·3 million (357·3¿449·5) people had hearing loss that was moderate or higher in severity after adjusting for hearing aid use, and 430·4 million (381·7¿479·6) without adjustment. The largest number of people with moderate-to-complete hearing loss resided in the Western Pacific region (127·1 million people [112·3¿142·6]). Of all people with a hearing impairment, 62·1% (60·2¿63·9) were older than 50 years. The Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index explained 65·8% of the variation in national age-standardised rates of years lived with disability, because countries with a low HAQ Index had higher rates of years lived with disability. By 2050, a projected 2·45 billion (2·35¿2·56) people will have hearing loss, a 56·1% (47·3¿65·2) increase from 2019, despite stable age-standardised prevalence. Interpretation: As populations age, the number of people with hearing loss will increase. Interventions such as childhood screening, hearing aids, effective management of otitis media and meningitis, and cochlear implants have the potential to ameliorate this burden. Because the burden of moderate-to-complete hearing loss is concentrated in countries with low health-care quality and access, stronger health-care provision mechanisms are needed to reduce the burden of unaddressed hearing loss in these settings. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.

Background: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. Methods: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0). Findings: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1¿38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78¿0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91¿1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95¿1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58¿35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49¿42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05¿0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76¿2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress. Interpretation: Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH.

Background: Poor adherence to nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) is associated with low rates of smoking cessation. Hence, this study aims to identify and map patient-related factors associated with adherence to NRT using the capability, opportunity, motivation, and behaviour (COM-B) model. Methods: A systematic review was conducted by searching five databases (MEDLINE, Scopus, EMBASE, CINAHL, and PsycINFO) and grey literature on 30 August 2020. Data were extracted, thematically analysed, and mapped to the COM-B model. The Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) critical appraisal tool was utilised to assess the quality of studies. Results: A total of 2929 citations were screened, and 26 articles with a total of 13,429 participants included. Thirty-one factors were identified and mapped to COM-B model: psychological capability (forgetfulness, education), physical capability (level of nicotine dependence, withdrawal symptoms), reflective motivation (perception about NRT and quitting), automatic motivation (alcohol use, stress, depression), physical opportunity (cost), and social opportunity (social support). The most prominent element associated with adherence was reflective motivation followed by physical capability and automatic motivation. Conclusions: Multiple personal, social, and environmental factors affect NRT adherence. Hence, it is recommended to implement a multifaceted behavioural intervention incorporating factors categorised under the COM-B model, which is the hub of the behaviour change wheel (BCW) to improve adherence and quitting.

Background. There is no pooled evidence regarding the prevalence and potential associated factors of perinatal depression in Ethiopian community. Hence, the current review aimed to examine the prevalence and associated factors of perinatal depression in Ethiopia. Method. A computerized systematic literature search was made in MEDLINE, Scopus, PubMed, ScienceDirect, and Google Scholar. Each database was searched from its start date to January 2018. All included articles were published in English, which evaluated prevalence and associated factors of perinatal depression in Ethiopia. Pooled estimations with 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated with DerSimonian-Laird (DL) random-effects model. Publication bias was evaluated by using inspection of funnel plots and statistical tests. Result. Eight observational studies with an overall sample size of 4624 mothers were included in the review. The pooled prevalence of perinatal depression from these studies reported that the prevalence of perinatal depression in Ethiopia is 25.8% [95% CI, 24.6%-27.1%]. A pervious history of depression [RR: 3.78 (95% CI, 2.18-6.57), I2 = 41.6%], poor socioeconomic status [RR: 4.67 (95% CI, 2.89-7.53), I2 = 0%], not living with spouse [RR: 3.76 (95% CI, 1.96-7.38), I2 = 36.4%], having obstetric complications in previous and/or this pregnancy [RR: 2.74 (95% CI, 1.48-5.06), I2 = 67.7%], and having unplanned pregnancy [RR: 2.73 (95% CI, 2.11-3.53), I2 = 0%] were the major factors associated with perinatal depression. Conclusion. The pooled prevalence of perinatal depression in Ethiopia is far above most developed as well as developing countries. Hence, to realize the sustainable development goals (SDGs) outlined by united nation, much attention should be given to improve maternal mental health through reduction of identified modifiable factors. Maternal health programs, polices, and activities should incorporate maternal mental health as a core component.