Dr Steve Mohr

Dr Steve Mohr

Performance Analytics Officer

Research and Innovation Services

Career Summary

Biography

Dr Steve Mohr is the Performance Analytics Officer in the Research and Innovation Division. Steve has a research background and a strong passion for data analysis, forecasting resource depletion, numerical modelling, Spatial modelling and evaluating pilot programs.

Steve has a PhD in fossil fuel supply, and has used his Mathematics and Engineering skills to developed Geologic Resource Supply-Demand Model (GeRS-DeMo) which is capable of replicating supply and demand of resources extracted from mining methods and oil and gas from fields. Steve has applied this model to investigate key resources including:

  • Fossil Fuels
  • Phosphorus
  • Lithium
  • Helium
  • Iron Ore
  • Copper
  • Lead/Zinc

When Steve worked at ISF as a Senior Research Consultant, he primarily focused on evaluating the energy and/or water savings from pilot programs. In particular he worked on evaluation projects such as the OEH Home Power Savings Program, Endeavour Energy efficiency programs, ACEW AGL and Hunter Water Save Water Initiatives. A key component of this evaluation work is collating large datasets of either customer billing data or smart meter data from a range of sources and critically analysing the compiled datasets to glean statistically significant information. Steve has specific experience with smart meter data analysis, having completed projects with Hunter Water Corp and Endeavour Energy analysing smart meter data consumption data. Steve also assisted in refining existing water and energy models and associated analysis and designing new resource models.


Qualifications

  • Doctor of Philosophy, University of Newcastle
  • Bachelor of Mathematics, University of Newcastle
  • Bachelor of Engineering (Chemical Engineering)(Honours), University of Newcastle

Keywords

  • Peak Minerals
  • Resource Futures

Fields of Research

Code Description Percentage
091499 Resources Engineering and Extractive Metallurgy not elsewhere classified 100
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Publications

For publications that are currently unpublished or in-press, details are shown in italics.


Journal article (38 outputs)

Year Citation Altmetrics Link
2020 Northey S, Mohr S, Mudd GM, Weng Z, Giurco D, 'Corrigendum to Modelling future copper ore grade decline based on a detailed assessment of copper resources and mining (Resources, Conservation & Recycling (2014) 83 (190 201), (S0921344913002127), (10.1016/j.resconrec.2013.10.005))', Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 154 (2020)

© 2019 The authors regret that equation 1 is incorrect. The correct equation is: [Formula presented] The authors would like to apologise for any inconvenience caused.... [more]

© 2019 The authors regret that equation 1 is incorrect. The correct equation is: [Formula presented] The authors would like to apologise for any inconvenience caused.

DOI 10.1016/j.resconrec.2019.104598
2020 Mohr S, Giurco D, Yellishetty M, Ward J, Mudd G, 'Correction to: Projection of Iron Ore Production (Natural Resources Research, (2015), 24, 3, (317-327), 10.1007/s11053-014-9256-6)', Natural Resources Research, 29 561 (2020)

© 2019, International Association for Mathematical Geosciences. The original version of this article unfortunately contained an error in Equation 3. This error does not affect the... [more]

© 2019, International Association for Mathematical Geosciences. The original version of this article unfortunately contained an error in Equation 3. This error does not affect the results of the paper; merely the description of the model was incorrect. Both equations are nearly identical in terms of their functionality. The correct equation is given below:(formula presented).

DOI 10.1007/s11053-019-09594-2
2019 Madden B, Florin N, Mohr S, Giurco D, 'Using the waste Kuznet's curve to explore regional variation in the decoupling of waste generation and socioeconomic indicators', Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 149 674-686 (2019)

© 2019 Decoupling of resource consumption from economic growth is a key principle in the transition towards a circular economy. This study explores regional variation in the decou... [more]

© 2019 Decoupling of resource consumption from economic growth is a key principle in the transition towards a circular economy. This study explores regional variation in the decoupling of waste generation from mean income in the Australian state of New South Wales (NSW), following the Waste Kuznet's curve (WKC) hypothesis. The WKC hypothesis tests for the existence of a relationship between waste and economic indicators conforming to an inverted-U shape that may indicate decoupling. A geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model is used to test the WKC hypothesis for municipal waste from 2011 to 2015. We identify municipalities conforming to the WKC hypothesis, and examine the socioeconomic and urban morphological characteristics of these municipalities. Results show that waste policy must be targeted to consider local variability in socioeconomics. Municipalities across rural NSW were found to conform to the WKC over the time frame. WKC-conforming municipalities had higher per-capita rates of waste generation, and lower mean incomes compared to non-conforming municipalities. Ratios of tipping point (global maximum) to mean income for WKC conforming municipalities were estimated between 0.8 and 2, indicating that these municipalities are in stages of relative, rather than absolute, decoupling. This study demonstrates the application of the WKC for examining decoupling, and highlights the importance of considering variations in regional characteristics when assessing the decoupling of waste generation from income. Findings also broadly suggest regionally specific policy making is required for circular economy transitions in NSW.

DOI 10.1016/j.resconrec.2019.06.025
Citations Scopus - 6
2018 Mohr S, Giurco D, Retamal M, Mason L, Mudd G, 'Global Projection of Lead-Zinc Supply from Known Resources', Resources, 7 (2018)
DOI 10.3390/resources7010017
2018 Quilcaille Y, Gasser T, Ciais P, Lecocq F, Janssens-Maenhout G, Mohr S, 'Uncertainty in projected climate change arising from uncertain fossil-fuel emission factors', Environmental Research Letters, 13 (2018)

© 2018 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Emission inventories are widely used by the climate community, but their uncertainties are rarely accounted for. In this stu... [more]

© 2018 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Emission inventories are widely used by the climate community, but their uncertainties are rarely accounted for. In this study, we evaluate the uncertainty in projected climate change induced by uncertainties in fossil-fuel emissions, accounting for non-CO2 species co-emitted with the combustion of fossil-fuels and their use in industrial processes. Using consistent historical reconstructions and three contrasted future projections of fossil-fuel extraction from Mohr et al we calculate CO2 emissions and their uncertainties stemming from estimates of fuel carbon content, net calorific value and oxidation fraction. Our historical reconstructions of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions are consistent with other inventories in terms of average and range. The uncertainties sum up to a ±15% relative uncertainty in cumulative CO2 emissions by 2300. Uncertainties in the emissions of non-CO2 species associated with the use of fossil fuels are estimated using co-emission ratios varying with time. Using these inputs, we use the compact Earth system model OSCAR v2.2 and a Monte Carlo setup, in order to attribute the uncertainty in projected global surface temperature change (T) to three sources of uncertainty, namely on the Earth system's response, on fossil-fuel CO2 emission and on non-CO2 co-emissions. Under the three future fuel extraction scenarios, we simulate the median T to be 1.9, 2.7 or 4.0 °C in 2300, with an associated 90% confidence interval of about 65%, 52% and 42%. We show that virtually all of the total uncertainty is attributable to the uncertainty in the future Earth system's response to the anthropogenic perturbation. We conclude that the uncertainty in emission estimates can be neglected for global temperature projections in the face of the large uncertainty in the Earth system response to the forcing of emissions. We show that this result does not hold for all variables of the climate system, such as the atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 and the radiative forcing of tropospheric ozone, that have an emissions-induced uncertainty representing more than 40% of the uncertainty in the Earth system's response.

DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/aab304
Citations Scopus - 7
2018 Metson GS, Cordell D, Ridoutt B, Mohr S, 'Mapping phosphorus hotspots in Sydney's organic wastes: A spatially explicit inventory to facilitate urban phosphorus recycling', Journal of Urban Ecology, 4 (2018)

©The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press. Phosphorus is an essential element for food production whose main global sources are becoming scarce and expensive. Furt... [more]

©The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press. Phosphorus is an essential element for food production whose main global sources are becoming scarce and expensive. Furthermore, losses of phosphorus throughout the food production chain can also cause serious aquatic pollution. Recycling urban organic waste resources high in phosphorus could simultaneously address scarcity concerns for agricultural producers who rely on phosphorus fertilisers, and waste managers seeking to divert waste from landfills to decrease environmental burdens. Recycling phosphorus back to agricultural lands however requires careful logistical planning to maximize benefits and minimize costs, including processing and transportation. The first step towards such analyses is quantifying recycling potential in a spatially explicit way. Here we present such inventories and scenarios for the Greater Sydney Basin's recyclable phosphorus supply and agricultural demand. In 2011, there was 15 times more phosphorus available in organic waste than agricultural demand for phosphorus in Sydney. Hypothetically, if future city residents shifted to a plant-based diet, eliminated edible food waste, and removed animal production in the Greater Sydney Basin, available phosphorus supply would decrease to 7.25 kt of phosphorus per year, even when accounting for population growth by 2031, and demand would also decrease to 0.40 kt of phosphorus per year. Creating a circular phosphorus economy for Sydney, in all scenarios considered, would require effective recycling strategies which include transport outside of the Greater Sydney Basin. These spatially explicit scenarios can be used as a tool to facilitate stakeholders engagement to identify opportunities and barriers for appropriate organic waste recycling strategies.

DOI 10.1093/jue/juy009
Citations Scopus - 5
2018 Mohr S, Giurco D, Retamal M, Mason L, Mudd G, 'Global projection of lead-zinc supply from known resources', Resources, 7 (2018)

© 2018 by the authors. Lead and zinc are used extensively in the construction and automotive industries, and require sustainable supply. In order to understand the future availabi... [more]

© 2018 by the authors. Lead and zinc are used extensively in the construction and automotive industries, and require sustainable supply. In order to understand the future availability of lead and zinc, we have projected global supplies on a country-by-country basis from a detailed global assessment of mineral resources for 2013. The model GeRS-DeMo was used to create projections of lead and zinc production from ores, as well as recycling for lead. Our modelling suggests that lead and zinc production from known resources is set to peak within 15 years (lead 2025, zinc 2031). For lead, the total supply declines relatively slowly post peak due to recycling. If additional resources are found, these peaks would shift further into the future. These results suggest that lead and zinc consumers will need to plan for the future, potentially by: seeking alternative supplies (e.g., mine tailings, smelter/refinery slags); obtaining additional value from critical metals contained in lead-zinc ore deposits to counter lower grade ores; identifying potential substitutes; redesigning their products; or by contributing to the development of recycling industries.

DOI 10.3390/resources7010017
Citations Scopus - 10
2018 Mohr S, Giurco D, Retamal M, Mason L, Mudd G, 'Erratum: Global projection of lead-zinc supply from known resources. [Resources, (2018), 7, (17)] doi: 10.3390/resources7010017', Resources, 9 (2018)

© 2020 by the authors. The authors would like to apologize for any inconvenience caused to the readers by this change. The change does not affect the scientific results. The manus... [more]

© 2020 by the authors. The authors would like to apologize for any inconvenience caused to the readers by this change. The change does not affect the scientific results. The manuscript will be updated and the original will remain online on the article's webpage.

DOI 10.3390/resources9030025
2017 Liu A, Giurco D, Mukheibir P, Mohr S, Watkins G, White S, 'Online water-use feedback: household user interest, savings and implications', Urban Water Journal, 14 900-907 (2017)

© 2017 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This paper reports on the short- and long-term impacts of online water-use feedback provided via a smart meteri... [more]

© 2017 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This paper reports on the short- and long-term impacts of online water-use feedback provided via a smart metering trial involving 120 households in New South Wales, Australia. Near-real time water consumption feedback was provided via an online portal to half of the sample. Water consumption was uniquely analysed one year pre- and post-intervention, and in conjunction with login data. During one year of available access, the intervention group saved an overall average of 24.1 litres per household per day (L/hh/d) (4.2%). Regression analysis showed the significant savings of active users related specifically to portal login activity. Significant short-term effects persisted for 42¿days, averaging at 63.1 L/hh/d. The article discusses the implications for research and practice, including a consideration of how, in addition to providing ongoing access, online portals could be leveraged further by water authorities to help meet urgent short-term supply constraints such as in drought.

DOI 10.1080/1573062X.2017.1279194
Citations Scopus - 8
2016 Wang J, Mohr S, Feng L, Liu H, Tverberg GE, 'Analysis of resource potential for China's unconventional gas and forecast for its long-term production growth', Energy Policy, 88 389-401 (2016)

© 2015 Elsevier Ltd. China is vigorously promoting the development of its unconventional gas resources because natural gas is viewed as a lower-carbon energy source and because Ch... [more]

© 2015 Elsevier Ltd. China is vigorously promoting the development of its unconventional gas resources because natural gas is viewed as a lower-carbon energy source and because China has relatively little conventional natural gas supply. In this paper, we first evaluate how much unconventional gas might be available based on an analysis of technically recoverable resources for three types of unconventional gas resources: shale gas, coalbed methane and tight gas. We then develop three alternative scenarios of how this extraction might proceed, using the Geologic Resources Supply Demand Model. Based on our analysis, the medium scenario, which we would consider to be our best estimate, shows a resource peak of 176.1 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2068. Depending on economic conditions and advance in extraction techniques, production could vary greatly from this. If economic conditions are adverse, unconventional natural gas production could perhaps be as low as 70.1. bcm, peaking in 2021. Under the extremely optimistic assumption that all of the resources that appear to be technologically available can actually be recovered, unconventional production could amount to as much as 469.7. bcm, with peak production in 2069. Even if this high scenario is achieved, China's total gas production will only be sufficient to meet China's lowest demand forecast. If production instead matches our best estimate, significant amounts of natural gas imports are likely to be needed.

DOI 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.10.042
Citations Scopus - 28
2016 Neset TS, Cordell D, Mohr S, VanRiper F, White S, 'Visualizing Alternative Phosphorus Scenarios for Future Food Security', Frontiers in Nutrition, 3 (2016)

© Copyright © 2016 Neset, Cordell, Mohr, VanRiper and White. The impact of global phosphorus scarcity on food security has increasingly been the focus of scientific studies over t... [more]

© Copyright © 2016 Neset, Cordell, Mohr, VanRiper and White. The impact of global phosphorus scarcity on food security has increasingly been the focus of scientific studies over the past decade. However, systematic analyses of alternative futures for phosphorus supply and demand throughout the food system are still rare and provide limited inclusion of key stakeholders. Addressing global phosphorus scarcity requires an integrated approach exploring potential demand reduction as well as recycling opportunities. This implies recovering phosphorus from multiple sources, such as food waste, manure, and excreta, as well as exploring novel opportunities to reduce the long-term demand for phosphorus in food production such as changing diets. Presently, there is a lack of stakeholder and scientific consensus around priority measures. To therefore enable exploration of multiple pathways and facilitate a stakeholder dialog on the technical, behavioral, and institutional changes required to meet long-term future phosphorus demand, this paper introduces an interactive web-based tool, designed for visualizing global phosphorus scenarios in real time. The interactive global phosphorus scenario tool builds on several demand and supply side measures that can be selected and manipulated interactively by the user. It provides a platform to facilitate stakeholder dialog to plan for a soft landing and identify a suite of concrete priority options, such as investing in agricultural phosphorus use efficiency, or renewable fertilizers derived from phosphorus recovered from wastewater and food waste, to determine how phosphorus demand to meet future food security could be attained on a global scale in 2040 and 2070. This paper presents four example scenarios, including (1) the potential of full recovery of human excreta, (2) the challenge of a potential increase in non-food phosphorus demand, (3) the potential of decreased animal product consumption, and (4) the potential decrease in phosphorus demand from increased efficiency and yield gains in crop and livestock systems.

DOI 10.3389/fnut.2016.00047
Citations Scopus - 7
2016 Ward JD, Sutton PC, Werner AD, Costanza R, Mohr SH, Simmons CT, 'Is decoupling GDP growth from environmental impact possible?', PLoS ONE, 11 (2016)

© 2016 Ward et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reprod... [more]

© 2016 Ward et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. The argument that human society can decouple economic growth-defined as growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP)-from growth in environmental impacts is appealing. If such decoupling is possible, it means that GDP growth is a sustainable societal goal. Here we show that the decoupling concept can be interpreted using an easily understood model of economic growth and environmental impact. The simple model is compared to historical data and modelled projections to demonstrate that growth in GDP ultimately cannot be decoupled from growth in material and energy use. It is therefore misleading to develop growth-oriented policy around the expectation that decoupling is possible. We also note that GDP is increasingly seen as a poor proxy for societal wellbeing. GDP growth is therefore a questionable societal goal. Society can sustainably improve wellbeing, including the wellbeing of its natural assets, but only by discarding GDP growth as the goal in favor of more comprehensive measures of societal wellbeing.

DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0164733
Citations Scopus - 84
2015 Mohr SH, Wang J, Ellem G, Ward J, Giurco D, 'Projection of world fossil fuels by country', FUEL, 141 120-135 (2015)
DOI 10.1016/j.fuel.2014.10.030
Citations Scopus - 180Web of Science - 164
2015 Wang J, Feng L, Steve M, Tang X, Gail TE, Mikael H, 'China's unconventional oil: A review of its resources and outlook for long-term production', Energy, 82 31-42 (2015)

© 2014 Elsevier Ltd. Due to the expected importance of unconventional oil in China's domestic oil supply, this paper first investigates the four types of China's unconve... [more]

© 2014 Elsevier Ltd. Due to the expected importance of unconventional oil in China's domestic oil supply, this paper first investigates the four types of China's unconventional oil resources comprehensively: heavy and extra-heavy oil, oil sands, broad tight oil and kerogen oil. Our results show that OIP (Oil-in-Place) of these four types of resources amount to 19.64Gt, 5.97Gt, 25.74Gt and 47.64Gt respectively, while TRRs (technically recoverable resources) amount to 2.24Gt, 2.26Gt, 6.95Gt and 11.98Gt respectively. Next, the Geologic Resources Supply-Demand Model is used to quantitatively project the long-term production of unconventional oil under two resource scenarios (TRR scenario and Proved Reserve+Cumulative Production scenario). Our results indicate that total unconventional oil production will peak in 2068 at 0.351Gt in TRR scenario, whereas peak year and peak production of PR (proved reserves)+CP (Cumulative Production) scenario are 2023 and 0.048Gt, significantly earlier and lower than those of TRR scenario. The implications of this growth in production of unconventional oil for China are also analyzed. The results show that if the TRR scenario can be achieved, it will increase total supply and improve oil security considerably. However, achieving the production in TRR scenario has many challenges, and even if it is achieved, China will still need to rely on imported oil.

DOI 10.1016/j.energy.2014.12.042
Citations Scopus - 44
2015 Mohr S, Giurco D, Yellishetty M, Ward J, Mudd G, 'Projection of Iron Ore Production', Natural Resources Research, 24 317-327 (2015)

© 2014, International Association for Mathematical Geosciences. A comprehensive country-by-country projection of world iron ore production is presented along with alternative scen... [more]

© 2014, International Association for Mathematical Geosciences. A comprehensive country-by-country projection of world iron ore production is presented along with alternative scenarios and a sensitivity analysis. The supply-driven modelling approach follows Mohr (Projection of world fossil fuel production with supply and demand interactions, PhD Thesis, http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6782, 2010) using an ultimately recoverable resource of 346 Gt of iron ore. Production is estimated to have a choppy plateau starting in 2017 until 2050 after which production rapidly declines. The undulating plateau is due to Chinese iron ore production peaking earlier followed by Australia and Brazil in turn. Alternative scenarios indicate that the model is sensitive to increases in Australian and Brazilian resources, and that African iron ore production can shift the peak date only if the African Ultimately Recoverable Resources (URR) is 5 times larger than the estimate used. Changes to the demand for iron ore driven by substitution or recycling are not modelled. The relatively near-term peak in iron ore supply is likely to create a global challenge to manufacturing and construction and ultimately the world economy.

DOI 10.1007/s11053-014-9256-6
Citations Scopus - 8
2014 Northey S, Mohr S, Mudd GM, Weng Z, Giurco D, 'Modelling future copper ore grade decline based on a detailed assessment of copper resources and mining', Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 83 190-201 (2014)

The concept of "peak oil" has been explored and debated extensively within the literature. However there has been comparatively little research examining the concept of ... [more]

The concept of "peak oil" has been explored and debated extensively within the literature. However there has been comparatively little research examining the concept of "peak minerals", particularly in-depth analyses for individual metals. This paper presents scenarios for mined copper production based upon a detailed assessment of global copper resources and historic mine production. Scenarios for production from major copper deposit types and from individual countries or regions were developed using the Geologic Resources Supply-Demand Model (GeRS-DeMo). These scenarios were extended using cumulative grade-tonnage data, derived from our resource database, to produce estimates of potential rates of copper ore grade decline. The scenarios indicate that there are sufficient identified copper resources to grow mined copper production for at least the next twenty years. The future rate of ore grade decline may be less than has historically been the case, as mined grades are approaching the average resource grade and there is still significant copper endowment in high grade ore bodies. Despite increasing demand for copper as the developing world experiences economic growth, the economic and environmental impacts associated with increased production rates and declining ore grades (particularly those relating to energy consumption, water consumption and greenhouse gas emissions) will present barriers to the continued expansion of the industry. For these reasons peak mined copper production may well be realised during this century. © 2013 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DOI 10.1016/j.resconrec.2013.10.005
Citations Scopus - 138
2014 Turner A, Fyfe J, Rickwood P, Mohr S, 'Evaluation of implemented Australian efficiency programs: Results, techniques and insights', Water Science and Technology: Water Supply, 14 1112-1123 (2014)

© IWA Publishing 2014. Australia has invested heavily in water efficiency in recent years, mainly due to severe drought, and has implemented some of the largest efficiency program... [more]

© IWA Publishing 2014. Australia has invested heavily in water efficiency in recent years, mainly due to severe drought, and has implemented some of the largest efficiency programs in the world. Despite this there is little public information on actual savings achieved or the cost effectiveness of programs implemented. This paper draws together the limited publicly available evaluations from Australia, focusing on the residential sector. It describes some of the large-scale residential programs implemented such as home retrofits, showerhead exchanges, washing machine rebates, toilet retrofits and rainwater tank rebates. It identifies key savings evaluation techniques used including participant-control and regression analysis, and summarizes water savings results from evaluation studies conducted. It also discusses key learnings from both the evaluation techniques employed and the programs implemented. The paper will be of significant interest to water service providers looking for evidence of actual savings achieved and/or wanting to understand how to evaluate their own programs.

DOI 10.2166/ws.2014.065
2014 Mohr S, Ward J, 'Helium production and possible projection', Minerals, 4 130-144 (2014)

© 2014 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. The future availability of helium has been raised as an issue in the literature. However, a disaggregated projection of h... [more]

© 2014 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. The future availability of helium has been raised as an issue in the literature. However, a disaggregated projection of helium production has not been attempted, presumably due to the difficult nature of accessing disaggregated historic production data to test the accuracy of this issue. This paper presents collated and estimated historic helium production statistics from 1921 to 2012 for each helium producing country in the world and by U.S. state. A high and regular growth projection of helium has been created. It is found that helium resources are sufficient for the near future, with the projected production plateauing in 2060¿2075 and 2090¿2100 for the high and regular growth scenarios, respectively. As long as natural gas deposits with helium are appropriately managed, there is little likelihood for helium shortages to occur in the short term due to geologic constraints.

DOI 10.3390/min4010130
Citations Scopus - 10
2013 Evans GM, Mohr S, 'Projections of Future Phosphorus Production', Philica, (2013) [C2]
Co-authors Geoffrey Evans
2013 Yellishetty M, Mudd GM, Giurco D, Mason L, Mohr S, 'Iron ore in Australia - Too much or too hard?', AusIMM Bulletin, (2013)
2012 Ward JD, Mohr SH, Myers BR, Nel WP, 'High estimates of supply constrained emissions scenarios for long-term climate risk assessment', Energy Policy, 51 598-604 (2012)

The simulated effects of anthropogenic global warming have become important in many fields and most models agree that significant impacts are becoming unavoidable in the face of s... [more]

The simulated effects of anthropogenic global warming have become important in many fields and most models agree that significant impacts are becoming unavoidable in the face of slow action. Improvements to model accuracy rely primarily on the refinement of parameter sensitivities and on plausible future carbon emissions trajectories. Carbon emissions are the leading cause of global warming, yet current considerations of future emissions do not consider structural limits to fossil fuel supply, invoking a wide range of uncertainty. Moreover, outdated assumptions regarding the future abundance of fossil energy could contribute to misleading projections of both economic growth and climate change vulnerability. Here we present an easily replicable mathematical model that considers fundamental supply-side constraints and demonstrate its use in a stochastic analysis to produce a theoretical upper limit to future emissions. The results show a significant reduction in prior uncertainty around projected long term emissions, and even assuming high estimates of all fossil fuel resources and high growth of unconventional production, cumulative emissions tend to align to the current medium emissions scenarios in the second half of this century. This significant finding provides much-needed guidance on developing relevant emissions scenarios for long term climate change impact studies. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

DOI 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.09.003
Citations Scopus - 18
2012 Giurco D, Prior T, Mason L, Mohr S, Mudd G, 'Life-of-resource sustainability considerations for mining', Australian Journal of Civil Engineering, 10 47-56 (2012)

Mining in Australia is booming. Notwithstanding, production conditions are progressively transitioning from the mining of "cheaper, easily accessible and higher quality ores&... [more]

Mining in Australia is booming. Notwithstanding, production conditions are progressively transitioning from the mining of "cheaper, easily accessible and higher quality ores" to "lower grade, more remote, complex and expensive ores". Sustainability discussions in the minerals industry have largely sought to improve the social and environmental performance of individual operations, including planning for closure. However, the national implications of a change in the circumstances underpinning the current prosperity of mining are underexplored. This paper uses a peak minerals metaphor to map "life-of-resource" environmental and social considerations, pre- and post-peak production, at local and national scales. An examination of how the social and environmental impacts change, over the life of a resource's extraction, is used to inform strategies for the role of technological and policy innovation in underpinning long-term national benefit from minerals in Australia. © Institution of Engineers Australia, 2012.

DOI 10.7158/C11-687.2012.10.1
Citations Scopus - 4
2012 Mohr SH, Mudd GM, Giurco D, 'Lithium resources and production: Critical assessment and global projections', Minerals, 2 65-84 (2012)

© 2012 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This paper critically assesses if accessible lithium resources are sufficient for expanded demand due to lithium battery ... [more]

© 2012 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This paper critically assesses if accessible lithium resources are sufficient for expanded demand due to lithium battery electric vehicles. The ultimately recoverable resources (URR) of lithium globally were estimated at between 19.3 (Case 1) and 55.0 (Case 3) Mt Li; Best Estimate (BE) was 23.6 Mt Li. The Mohr 2010 model was modified to project lithium supply. The Case 1 URR scenario indicates sufficient lithium for a 77% maximum penetration of lithium battery electric vehicles in 2080 whereas supply is adequate to beyond 2200 in the Case 3 URR scenario. Global lithium demand approached a maximum of 857 kt Li/y, with a 100% penetration of lithium vehicles, 3.5 people per car and 10 billion population.

DOI 10.3390/min2010065
Citations Scopus - 104
2012 Giurco D, Mohr S, Mudd G, Mason L, Prior T, 'Resource criticality and commodity production projections', Resources, 1 23-33 (2012)

© 2012 by the authors. licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. Resource criticality arising from peak production of primary ores is explored in this paper. We combine the Geologic Reso... [more]

© 2012 by the authors. licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. Resource criticality arising from peak production of primary ores is explored in this paper. We combine the Geologic Resource Supply-Demand Model of Mohr [1] to project future resource production for selected commodities in Australia, namely iron and coal which together represent around 50% of the value of total Australian exports as well as copper, gold and lithium. The projections (based on current estimates of ultimately recoverable reserves) indicate that peak production in Australia would occur for lithium in 2015; for gold in 2021; for copper in 2024; for iron in 2039 and for coal in 2060. The quantitative analysis is coupled with the criticality framework for peak minerals of Mason et al. [2] comprising (i) resource availability, (ii) societal resource addiction to commodity use, and (iii) alternatives such as dematerialization or substitution to assess the broader dimension s of peak minerals production for Australia.

DOI 10.3390/resources1010023
Citations Scopus - 11
2011 Mohr SH, Hook M, Mudd G, Evans GM, 'Projection of long-term paths for Australian coal production-Comparisons of four models', International Journal of Coal Geology, 86 329-341 (2011) [C1]
DOI 10.1016/j.coal.2011.03.006
Citations Scopus - 29Web of Science - 24
Co-authors Geoffrey Evans
2011 Mason L, Mohr S, Zeibots M, Giurco D, 'Limits to cheap oil - Impact on mining', AusIMM Bulletin, 40-42 (2011)

The price of oil also affects the demand for metals and minerals and hence the ability of mining companies to sell resources at a profit. The mining sector is a major consumer of ... [more]

The price of oil also affects the demand for metals and minerals and hence the ability of mining companies to sell resources at a profit. The mining sector is a major consumer of oil products and hence the cost of producing metals and minerals is sensitive to oil prices. Specifically, oil based diesel is mixed with ammonium nitrate as the explosives commonly used in the mining industry, diesel trucks, and shovels are used to collect the ore and transport the ore to the primary processing facilities typically on the mine site. Currently, Australia imports from Malaysia and Vietnam (DRET 2010), however both of these countries reached peak oil production in 2004 and are now declining. The world is dependent on a small number of countries to ensure world oil production is adequate and less is being traded on the open market.

Citations Scopus - 1
2011 Mohr SH, Evans GM, 'Long term forecasting of natural gas production', Energy Policy, 39 5550-5560 (2011) [C1]
DOI 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.04.066
Citations Scopus - 49Web of Science - 38
Co-authors Geoffrey Evans
2010 Mohr SH, Evans GM, 'Combined generalized Hubbert-Bass model approach to include disruptions when predicting future oil production', Natural Resources, 1 28-33 (2010) [C1]
DOI 10.4236/nr.2010.11004
Co-authors Geoffrey Evans
2010 Mohr SH, Evans GM, 'Shale gas changes N. American gas production projections', Oil and Gas Journal, 108 60-64 (2010) [C2]
Citations Scopus - 5Web of Science - 4
Co-authors Geoffrey Evans
2010 Mohr SH, Evans GM, 'Long term prediction of unconventional oil production', Energy Policy, 38 265-276 (2010) [C1]
DOI 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.09.015
Citations Scopus - 53Web of Science - 43
Co-authors Geoffrey Evans
2010 Mohr SH, MacDougall JA, 'Integral Trees of Diameter 4', AKCE International Journal of Graphs and Combinatorics, 7 171-188 (2010) [C1]
Co-authors Jim Macdougall
2009 Mohr SH, Evans GM, 'An empirical method to make oil production models tolerant to anomalies', Natural Resources Research, 18 1-5 (2009) [C1]
DOI 10.1007/s11053-008-9083-8
Citations Scopus - 5
Co-authors Geoffrey Evans
2009 Mohr SH, Evans GM, 'Forecasting coal production until 2100', Fuel, 88 2059-2067 (2009) [C1]
DOI 10.1016/j.fuel.2009.01.032
Citations Scopus - 123Web of Science - 111
Co-authors Geoffrey Evans
2008 Mohr SH, Evans GM, 'Peak oil: Testing Hubbert's curve via theoretical modeling', Natural Resources Research, 17 1-11 (2008) [C1]
DOI 10.1007/s11053-008-9059-8
Citations Scopus - 36
Co-authors Geoffrey Evans
2007 Mohr SH, Evans GM, 'Models provide insights on North American gas future', Oil & Gas Journal, 105 51-55 (2007) [C1]
Citations Scopus - 2
Co-authors Geoffrey Evans
2007 Mohr SH, Evans GM, 'Mathematical model forecasts year conventional oil will peak', Oil & Gas Journal, 105 45-50 (2007) [C1]
Citations Scopus - 19Web of Science - 12
Co-authors Geoffrey Evans
2007 Mohr SH, Evans GM, 'Model proposed for world conventional, unconventional gas', Oil & Gas Journal, 105 46-51 (2007) [C1]
Citations Web of Science - 4
Co-authors Geoffrey Evans
2007 Mohr SH, Evans GM, 'Special report: Production model proposed for world conventional, unconventional gas', Oil and Gas Journal, 105 (2007)

A model for estimating world natural gas production to peak in 2043 has been developed and takes into account the conventional natural gas production peak by 2038, the world uncon... [more]

A model for estimating world natural gas production to peak in 2043 has been developed and takes into account the conventional natural gas production peak by 2038, the world unconventional natural gas production peak in 2038 as well the decline in methane hydrate. The model approximates coalbed methane while natural gas demand is modeled by analyzing demand per person and population forecasts. Estimating the worldwide coalbed methane resource and the determination of a reasonable recovery factor yields he coalbed methane unconventional ultimately recoverable resources (URR) estimate. Another input comes from the determination of conventional natural gas URR estimate. The model estimates that methane hydrate resources are about 1,000 tcm.

Citations Scopus - 7
Co-authors Geoffrey Evans
Show 35 more journal articles

Conference (3 outputs)

Year Citation Altmetrics Link
2011 Mohr S, Höök M, Mudd G, Evans G, 'Projection of Australian coal production - Comparisons of four models', 28th Annual International Pittsburgh Coal Conference 2011, PCC 2011 (2011)

Coal exports are an important source of revenue for Australia and for this reason Australian coal production and resources have been examined in detail. Two recoverable resource e... [more]

Coal exports are an important source of revenue for Australia and for this reason Australian coal production and resources have been examined in detail. Two recoverable resource estimates, a Standard case and a High case, were determined. The Standard case calculated the likely recoverable coal resources in Australia to be 317 Gt, whereas the High scenario determined the maximal amount of recoverable coal resources at 367 Gt. The study performed forecasting by use of curve-fitting with Logistic and Gompertz curves as well as Static and Dynamic versions of a supply and demand model based on real world mineral exploitation. The different modelling approaches were used to project fossil fuel production and the outlooks were compared. Good agreement was found between the Logistic, Static and Dynamic supply and demand models with production peaking in 2119±6 at between 1.9 and 3.3 Gt/y. Contrasting these projections the Gompertz curves peak in 2084±5 at 1-1.1 Gt/y. It was argued that the Logistic, Static and Dynamic models are more likely to produce accurate projections than the Gompertz curve. The production forecast is based on existing technology and constraints and a qualitative discussion is presented on possible influences on future production, namely: export capacity, climate change, overburden management, environmental and social impacts and export market issues.

Co-authors Geoffrey Evans
2009 Mohr SH, Evans GM, 'Future demand-supply interaction for the global platinum industry', Proceedings of Sustainability Through Resource Conservation and Recycling (SRCR), Cape Town, SA (2009) [E3]
Co-authors Geoffrey Evans
2008 Mohr SH, Evans GM, 'Modelling fossil fuels production to 2100', Chemeca2008, Newcastle, NSW (2008) [E1]
Co-authors Geoffrey Evans
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Dr Steve Mohr

Position

Performance Analytics Officer
Research and Innovation Services
Research and Innovation Division

Contact Details

Email steve.mohr@newcastle.edu.au
Phone (02) 4055 3250

Office

Room G30
Building NIERC
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