Dr Natalie Lockart

Conjoint Lecturer

School of Engineering

Career Summary

Qualifications

  • Bachelor of Engineering (Env Eng)(Honours), University of Newcastle
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Publications

For publications that are currently unpublished or in-press, details are shown in italics.


Journal article (8 outputs)

Year Citation Altmetrics Link
2017 Chowdhury AFMK, Lockart N, Willgoose G, Kuczera G, Kiem AS, Manage NP, 'Development and evaluation of a stochastic daily rainfall model with long-term variability', HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, 21 6541-6558 (2017) [C1]
DOI 10.5194/hess-21-6541-2017
Citations Scopus - 1Web of Science - 1
Co-authors George Kuczera, Garry Willgoose, Anthony Kiem
2016 Lockart N, Willgoose G, Kuczera G, Kiem AS, Chowdhury A, Parana Manage N, et al., 'Case study on the use of dynamically downscaled climate model data for assessing water security in the Lower Hunter region of the eastern seaboard of Australia', Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science, 66 177-202 (2016) [C1]
Citations Scopus - 3Web of Science - 3
Co-authors Garry Willgoose, George Kuczera, Anthony Kiem
2016 Kiem AS, Twomey C, Lockart N, Willgoose G, Kuczera G, Chowdhury A, et al., 'Links between East Coast Lows and the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall along the eastern seaboard of Australia', Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science, 66 162-176 (2016) [C1]
Citations Scopus - 4Web of Science - 3
Co-authors Garry Willgoose, Anthony Kiem, George Kuczera
2016 Parana Manage N, Lockart N, Willgoose G, Kuczera G, Kiem AS, Chowdhury A, et al., 'Statistical testing of dynamically downscaled rainfall data for the Upper Hunter region, New South Wales, Australia', Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science, 66 203-227 (2016) [C1]
Citations Scopus - 3Web of Science - 1
Co-authors George Kuczera, Garry Willgoose, Anthony Kiem
2015 Lockart N, Kavetski D, Franks SW, 'A new stochastic model for simulating daily solar radiation from sunshine hours', International Journal of Climatology, 35 1090-1106 (2015)

© 2014 Royal Meteorological Society. Many empirical models have been developed that use sunshine hours (SSH) data to estimate global solar radiation. Most of these models use the ... [more]

© 2014 Royal Meteorological Society. Many empirical models have been developed that use sunshine hours (SSH) data to estimate global solar radiation. Most of these models use the Angstrom-Prescott equation to produce deterministic estimates of monthly radiation and do not provide uncertainty estimates in their predictions. This study develops five stochastic models that use daily SSH data to produce probabilistic simulations of global radiation, including associated uncertainties. These models can be used to estimate historical daily radiation or to estimate radiation without the use of satellite data. Two sources of predictive uncertainty are considered: (1) the timing of the SSH during the day (estimated using Monte Carlo simulation) and (2) external errors such as variability in cloud type and amount (estimated using residual error modelling). The models differ in the parameterization of the diffuse and direct radiation, using either no scaling, linear or quadratic scaling of the radiation by the daily SSH fraction to account for cloud attenuation. The models are calibrated under several residual error assumptions, including constant, linear and quadratic variances dependent on the SSH fraction and simulated radiation. The five models perform equally well in simulating global radiation, with an average error of approximately 9% for all locations studied. The results suggest that SSH uncertainty does not dominate predictive errors in global radiation. The residual errors appear to be best described by a linear heteroscedastic structure with larger variance during cloudy days and smaller variance during sunny days. The developed methodology provides a novel approach for estimating the uncertainty in radiation estimates based on SSH data.

DOI 10.1002/joc.4041
Citations Scopus - 6Web of Science - 5
2013 Lockart N, Kavetski D, Franks SW, 'On the role of soil moisture in daytime evolution of temperatures', Hydrological Processes, 27 3896-3904 (2013) [C1]
DOI 10.1002/hyp.9525
Citations Scopus - 7Web of Science - 7
2010 Franks SW, Kavetski DN, Lockart NA, 'Reply to the comment of Cai et al. on the paper 'On the recent warming in the Murray-Darling Basin: Land surface interactions misunderstood' by Lockart et al', Geophysical Research Letters, 37 L10403 (2010) [C3]
DOI 10.1029/2010GL043615
Citations Scopus - 2Web of Science - 2
2009 Lockart N, Kavetski D, Franks SW, 'On the recent warming in the Murray-Darling Basin: Land surface interactions misunderstood', Geophysical Research Letters, 36 (2009)

Previous studies of the recent drought in the MurrayDarling Basin (MDB) have noted that low rainfall totals have been accompanied by anomalously high air temperatures. Subsequent ... [more]

Previous studies of the recent drought in the MurrayDarling Basin (MDB) have noted that low rainfall totals have been accompanied by anomalously high air temperatures. Subsequent studies have interpreted an identified trend in the residual timeseries of non-rainfall related temperature variability as a signal of anthropogenic change, further speculating that increased air temperature has exacerbated the drought through increasing evapotranspiration rates. In this study, we explore an alternative explanation of the recent increases in air temperature. This study demonstrates that significant misunderstanding of known processes of land surface - atmosphere interactions has led to the incorrect attribution of the causes of the anomalous temperatures, as well as significant misunderstanding of their impact on evaporation within the Murray-Darling Basin. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

DOI 10.1029/2009GL040598
Citations Scopus - 25Web of Science - 20
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Conference (13 outputs)

Year Citation Altmetrics Link
2016 Zhang L, Kuczera G, Kiem AS, Willgoose GR, Lockart N, 'Assessment of the AWAP large-scale hydrological model's ability to detect the influence of climate variability on streamflow in eastern Australia', 37th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, Queenstown, New Zealand (2016)
Co-authors Anthony Kiem, Garry Willgoose, George Kuczera
2016 Chowdhury AFMK, Lockart N, Willgoose GR, Kiem AS, Kuczera G, Parana Manage N, 'Comparison of two stochastic daily rainfall models and their ability to preserve multi-year rainfall variability', EGU General Assembly 2016, Vienna, Austria (2016)
Co-authors George Kuczera, Anthony Kiem, Garry Willgoose
2016 Parana Manage N, Lockart N, Willgoose GR, Kuczera G, Kiem AS, Chowdhury AFM, 'Evaluation of spatial correlations of dynamically downscaled rainfall data for eastern Australia', EGU General Assembly 2016, Vienna, Austria (2016)
Co-authors Garry Willgoose, George Kuczera, Anthony Kiem
2015 Kiem AS, Twomey C, Lockart N, Willgoose G, Kuczera G, 'The impact of East Coast Lows (ECL) on eastern Australia's hydroclimate - Do we need to consider sub-categories of ECLs?', The Art and Science of Water - 36th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, HWRS 2015 (2015) [E1]

© 2015, Engineers Australia. All rights reserved.East Coast Lows (ECLs) are intense low-pressure systems which occur over the subtropical east coasts of Southern Hemisphere contin... [more]

© 2015, Engineers Australia. All rights reserved.East Coast Lows (ECLs) are intense low-pressure systems which occur over the subtropical east coasts of Southern Hemisphere continents, including Australia. These systems are typically associated with gale-force winds, large seas, storm surges, heavy rainfall and flooding. While these ECL impacts are mostly negative the rainfall associated with ECLs is also very important for urban water security within the heavily populated eastern seaboard of Australian (ESA). This study examines historical ECLs to gain insights into the timing, frequency and location of ECL occurrence as well as the magnitude and spatial extent of ECL impacts on rainfall. The different characteristics and impacts associated with the different ECL sub-types are highlighted and it is demonstrated how this information can be used to stochastically simulate daily rainfall such that the statistics important for catchment scale hydrology (e.g. clustering of extreme events, long-term persistence, frequency/duration/magnitude of wet and dry spells etc.) are realistically preserved. These simulated rainfall sequences, that incorporate the spatial and temporal hydroclimatic variability caused by ECLs and other climate phenomena, are important inputs into hydrological models used to determine current and future urban water security.

Citations Scopus - 1
Co-authors Anthony Kiem, George Kuczera, Garry Willgoose
2015 Chowdhury AFM, Lockart N, Willgoose GR, Kuczera G, Kiem AS, Parana Manage N, 'Modelling daily rainfall in East Coast of Australia using a Compound Distribution Markov Chain model', 36th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, Hobart, Tas. (2015) [E1]
Citations Scopus - 1
Co-authors Anthony Kiem, George Kuczera, Garry Willgoose
2015 Parana Manage N, Lockart N, Willgoose GR, Kuczera G, Kiem AS, Chowdhury AFM, 'Testing the statistics of dynamically down-scaled rainfall data for the east coast of NSW', Hobart, Tas. (2015) [E1]
Citations Scopus - 1
Co-authors George Kuczera, Anthony Kiem, Garry Willgoose
2015 Lockart N, Willgoose GR, Kuczera G, Kiem AS, Chowdhury AFM, Parana Manage N, 'Use of NARCliM Rainfall Data for Simulating Streamflow in the Williams River Catchment', 36th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, Hobart, Australia (2015) [E1]
Citations Scopus - 1
Co-authors Anthony Kiem, Garry Willgoose, George Kuczera
2015 Lockart N, Willgoose GR, Kuczera G, Kiem AS, Chowdhury AFMK, Parana Manage N, 'Use of a stochastic rainfall generation model calibrated to NARCliM data to simulate runoff in the Lower Hunter for water security assessment', AMOS Annual Conference 2015 - Research to Community - Communicating our science, Brisbane, Australia (2015) [E3]
Co-authors Anthony Kiem, George Kuczera, Garry Willgoose
2015 Parana Manage N, Lockart N, Willgoose GR, Kuczera G, Kiem AS, Chowdhury AFMK, 'Statistical validation of dynamically downscaled climate data for the Hunter Region of New South Wales, Australia', AMOS Annual Conference 2015 - Research to Community - Communicating our science, Brisbane, Australia (2015) [E3]
Co-authors Garry Willgoose, Anthony Kiem, George Kuczera
2015 Chowdhury AFMK, Lockart N, Willgoose GR, Kuczera G, Parana Manage N, Kiem AS, 'A stochastic model for rainfall generation with long-term variability - calibration to NARCliM data at catchments with characteristic influence of East Coast Lows', AMOS Annual Conference 2015 - Research to Community - Communicating our science, Brisbane, Australia (2015) [E3]
Co-authors Anthony Kiem, George Kuczera, Garry Willgoose
2015 Kiem AS, Twomey CR, Lockart N, Willgoose GR, Kuczera G, 'Spatial and temporal hydroclimatic variability in eastern Australia - quantifying the magnitude and spatial extent of East Coast Low (ECL) impacts', AMOS Annual Conference 2015 - Research to Community - Communicating our science, Brisbane, Australia (2015) [E3]
Co-authors Anthony Kiem, Garry Willgoose, George Kuczera
2011 Lockart NA, Kavetski DN, Franks SW, 'Hydro-climatological variability in the Murray-Darling Basin', Hydro-Climatology: Variability and Change, Melbourne, Australia (2011) [E1]
2009 Lockart NA, Kavetski DN, Franks SW, 'Misattribution of climate trends in the Murray Darling Basin', H2009: Proceedings of H2009, the 32nd Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, Newcastle, NSW (2009) [E1]
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Grants and Funding

Summary

Number of grants 1
Total funding $65,000

Click on a grant title below to expand the full details for that specific grant.


20141 grants / $65,000

Estimating climate change induced changes to rainfall and runoff in NSW – Stage 2$65,000

Funding body: NSW Office of Environment and Heritage

Funding body NSW Office of Environment and Heritage
Project Team Professor Garry Willgoose, Doctor Natalie Lockart, Professor George Kuczera
Scheme Research Grant
Role Investigator
Funding Start 2014
Funding Finish 2014
GNo G1400765
Type Of Funding Other Public Sector - State
Category 2OPS
UON Y
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Research Supervision

Number of supervisions

Completed2
Current0

Past Supervision

Year Level of Study Research Title Program Supervisor Type
2017 PhD Historical Variability of East Coast Lows (ECLS) and their Impact on Eastern Australia's Hydroclimate PhD (Environmental Sc), Faculty of Science, The University of Newcastle Co-Supervisor
2017 PhD Development and Evaluation of Stochastic Rainfall Models for Urban Drought Security Assessment PhD (Civil Eng), Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, The University of Newcastle Co-Supervisor
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Research Projects

Modelling climate change-driven human displacement in the Hunter region of NSW: An interdisciplinary assessment of risks and adaptation strategies 2017 -

The notion of climate change-induced displacement remains underexplored within the context of the developed world. This project will initiate an inquiry into climate change induced-displacement in Australia, using the Hunter Region of NSW as a case study. Cutting across conventional disciplinary boundaries, the project will draw on insights from engineering, information technology, law, public health and anthropology. By listening to the co-presence of diverse analytical perspectives, the researchers will seek collaborative moments driving new knowledge and a holistic understanding of risks and adaptation strategies in the context of climate change. Using climate models and projections of mobility and migration, the project will: (i) investigate how climate change may manifest within the lives of Hunter residents; (ii) assess risks of displacement; (iii) consider legal and logistical tools that are required to adapt to the projected climate reality; (iv) consider political tools for effective adaptation and mitigation; and (v) present a conceptual framework for understanding climate change induced displacement in the context of the Hunter, including how it relates to psychosocial and environmental distress. 

Grants

Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Research and Innovation) Grant for Early Career Interdisciplinary Research

Funding body: The University of Newcastle - Research and Innovation Division

Funding body The University of Newcastle - Research and Innovation Division
Scheme Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Research and Innovation) Grant for Early Career Interdisciplinary Research

Collaborators

Name Organisation
Doctor Natalie Anne Lockart University of Newcastle
Doctor Hedda Haugen Askland University of Newcastle
Doctor Jane Louise Rich University of Newcastle
Doctor Raymond Jun Wen Chiong University of Newcastle

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Dr Natalie Lockart

Position

Conjoint Lecturer
School of Engineering
Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment

Contact Details

Email natalie.lockart@newcastle.edu.au
Phone (02) 4921 2063

Office

Room EA121
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