Mr Addisu Shunu Beyene

Mr Addisu Shunu Beyene

Research student

Career Summary

Biography

Addisu Beyene is a current Ph.D. student at the University of Newcastle, Faculty of Health and Medicine, School of Public Health and Medicine, Research Centre for Generational Health and Mr. Beyene has a background in Environmental Health Science and was awarded his Master of Public health in 2012. He is an experienced quantitative and qualitative researcher in Youth health, Adolescent health, Sexual and reproductive health, and Gender-based Violence. Mr. Beyene research is largely undertaken using primary and secondary data collected from different areas in Ethiopia among youths. He has extensive experience in the area of Nutrition (Micronutrient, Nutrition status), Health risk behaviors, Maternal and child health, Substance abuse, Sexual and Reproductive Health, Domestic Violence, mental illness, Communicable and Non-communicable diseases. He has authored and co-authored over 20 peer-reviewed publications.

Publications
Journal Article (Scholar Refereed Journal)

  1. Shunu A, Musa A. Prevalence of premarital sex and associated factors among out-of-school youths (aged 15-24) in Yabello town, Southern Ethiopia .the Pharma Innovation Journal 2014; 3(10): 10-15.
  2. Wodaye, A. Y., Beyene, A. S., & Roba, H. S. (2016). Prevalence of xerophthalmia and associated factors among school-age children of Fadis, Oromia regional state, Eastern Ethiopia: School-based cross-sectional study. Journal of Public Health and Epidemiology, 8(9), 175-183.
  3. Wang, H.,, wolock, T.M.,Carter,A.,Nguyen G.,Kyu,H.H,Gakidou,E.,… Addisu Shunu Beyene … Murray C. J .L.2016.Global, regional, and national HIV incidence, prevalence, and mortality, 1980-2015: results from the Global Burden of Disease study 2015. Lancet (Elsevier Ltd), 3;e36187.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2352-3018 (16)30087-X.
  4. Kassebaum N.J., Arora, M., Barber, R.M., Bhutta, Z.A., Brown, J. Carter, A. ,Addisu Shunu Beyene … Murray C. J .L.2016, Global, regional and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195countries, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2015 Study. Lancet (Elsevier Ltd),388:1603-58.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S01406736(16)31460X.
  5. Kassebaum N.J, Barber, R.M., Bhutta, Dandona,L., Gething P.W.,Hay,S.I.,Addisu Shunu Beyene … Murray C. J .L.2016,Global, Regional and National level of Maternal Mortality, 1990 to 2015: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Diseasestudy2015.Lancet(ElsevierLtd),388:1775-812.http://x.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31470-2.
  6. Vos T., Allen, C., Arora, M., Barber, R.M., Bhutta, Z.A., Brown, A., … Addisu Shunu Beyene … Murray C. J .L.2016, Global, Regional and National Incidence, Prevalence and YLDs for 310 Acute and Chronic diseases and Injuries, 1990-2015: A systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study2015.Lancet(ElsevierLtd),388:1545-602.:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31678-6.
  7. Forouzanafar,M.H., Afshin, A., Alexander, L.T.,Anderson,H.R.,Bhutta, Z.A., Biryukov,S., Addisu Shunu Beyene … Murray C. J .L.2016, Global, regional and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioral, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or cluster risks in195countries, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Lancet(Elsevier Ltd),388:1659-724.: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31679-8.
  8. Lim, S.S., Allen, K., Zulfi qar ABhutta,Dandonna,L., Forouzanafar,M.H.,Fullman,N., Addisu Shunu Beyene … Murray C. J .L.2016,  measuring the health-related sustainable development goals in 188 countries: A baseline analysis from the Global burden of disease study 2015, Lancet(Elsevier Ltd),388:1813-50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31467-2
  9. Wang, H.,, Nagahavi,M., Allen, K.,Barber, R.M., Bhutta Z.A, Carter, A., Addisu Shunu Beyene … Murray C. J .L.2016,   Global, Regional and National life expectancy causes and Causes Specific Mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2105: A systematic analysis for Global Burden of Disease Study2015. Lancet (Elsevier Ltd), 388:1459-544.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736 (16)31012-1.
  10. Wang, H. , Bhutta Z.A, Coates M.M, Coggeshall, M., Dandona, L., Diallo, K., Addisu Shunu Beyene … Murray C. J .L.2016,Global, regional, national, and selected subnational levels of stillbirths, neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet (Elsevier Ltd),388: 1725–74 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736 (16)31575-6.
  11. . Shore, H., & Shunu, A. (2017). Risky sexual behavior and associated factors among youth in Haramaya Secondary and Preparatory School, East Ethiopia, 2015. Journal of Public Health and Epidemiology, 9(4), 84-91.
  12. Emmanuela Gakidou, Addisu Shunu, Tobacco in transition, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis of smoking prevalence and attributable burden from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (Lancet (Elsevier Ltd), 389:10082, P 1885-1906).
  13. Ryan M Barber, Nancy Fullman, Reed J D Sorensen, Thomas Bollyky, Martin McKee, Ellen Nolte,…, Addisu Shunu Beyene,…, Christopher J L Murray(2017) Healthcare access and Quality index based on maternal mortality form mortality causes highly amenable to healthcare in195 countries and territories 1990-2015; A  novel analysis from global burden of 2015 study Lancet (Elsevier Ltd) , 390:10091, 231-66.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/ S0140-6736(17)30818-8.
  14.  Ali H.Mokdad, Addisu Shunu, .Christopher J L Murray The global burden of diarrheal diseases: Results from Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2015 Study Lancet Infect Dis 17; 9: 909–48.
  15. Nicholas Kassebaum, Addisu Shunu, Child and adolescent health 1990 to 2015: Findings from Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2015 Study (JAMA  pediatrics accepted for publication).
  16. Christopher J L Murray ,Addisu Shunu, Obesity and overweight and their health impact 1990-2015 in 195 countries; Findings from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015(NEJM accepted for publication).
  17. Joseph L Dieleman, Addisu Shunu and collaborators. The evolution and patterns of global health financing 1995-2014: Development Assistance for Health, government and private financing for 184 countries Lancet (Elsevier Ltd) , 389:10083, P 1981-2004.
  18.  Joseph L Dieleman,Addisu Shunu and collaborators. Future and potential spending on health 2015-2040: Government, private, and donor financing for 184 countries Lancet (Elsevier Ltd) , 389:10083, P 2005-2030.
  19. Murray C. J .L. Addisu Shunu Beyene and collaborators. Global, Regional and National under-five mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality and life expectancy 1970-2016: A systematic analysis for Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 Lancet (Elsevier Ltd), 390:10100, p 1084-115
  20. Murray C. J .L. Addisu Shunu Beyene and collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global 2 Burden of Disease Study 2016 Lancet (Elsevier Ltd), 390:10100, p 1151-1210.
  21. 21.  Murray C. J .L… Addisu shunu Global, regional and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195countries, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2016 Lancet (Elsevier Ltd) , 390:10100, P 1260-1344.

22.  Ali Mohammed …Addisu Shunu… Diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study.

23. Ali mohammed…Addisu Shunu…The burden of diarrhea in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990–2015: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study.

24.Ali mohammed…, Addisu Shunu…Maternal mortality and morbidity burden in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study.

25. Ali mohammed….Addisu Shunu..The burden of mental disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990–2015: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study.

26.Ali mohammed…, Addisu Shunu…Transport injuries and deaths in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study.

27.Christopher Murray …Addisu shunu…. Global, regional, and national incidence and prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries in 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 Lancet (Elsevier Ltd), 390:10100; p 1211-1250.

28.Ali mohammed…Addisu Shunu..HIV in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study.

29.  Theo Vos, Dr. Joan B. Soriano…. Addisu Shunu Global, regional, and national deaths, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years, and years lived with disability for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 The Lancet Respiratory Medicine journal

30.Christopher Murray..Addisu Shunu… Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet (Elsevier Ltd), 390:10100, P 1345-1422.

31. Christopher Murray..Addisu Shunu… Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 Lancet (Elsevier Ltd), 390:10100, P 1423-1459

32. Christopher Murray..Addisu Shunu… the global burden of tuberculosis: results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2015 Study. The lancet infectious diseaes http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(17)30703-X.

33. Abdulbasit Musa, Addisu Shunu, Hirbo Shore and Negga Assefa . 2017. Current Utilization of Long-acting and Contraceptives Methods among rural and Urban Residents of Kersa Disrict and Harar town, Eastern Ethiopia: Evidence from Kersa and Harar Health and Demographic Surveillance Sites. East African Journal of Health and Biomedical Sciences, 1(2): 36-44.

34.  Emmanuela Gakidou, Christopher J L Murray, Xueying Zhang, Sanjay Zodpey, Ali H Mokdad, Addisu Shunu Beyene, et al . 2018 Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016, The lancet (Elsevier Ltd) ,392:1015-35.

35.  Beyene AS, Chojenta C, Roba HS, Melka AS, Loxton D. Gender-based violence among female youths in educational institutions of Sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Systematic reviews 8(1):59 25 Feb 2019.

36.  Hirbo Shore Addisu Shunu, Abdulbasit Musa, and Negga Assefa, 2018. Prevalence and Associated Factors with Low Birth Weight in Kersa District: Based on Data from Health and Demographic Surveillances System in 2014, Eastern Ethiopia. East African Journal of Health and Biomedical Sciences, 2(1): 36-44.

37.  Roba HS, Beyene AS, Mengesha MM, Ayele BH, 'Prevalence of Hypertension and Associated Factors in Dire Dawa City, Eastern Ethiopia: A Community-Based Cross-Sectional Study', International Journal of Hypertension, 2019 1-9 (2019)

38.  Melkamu Merid, Hirbo Shore, Addisu Shunu, Behailu Hawulte Level of physical activity and its correlates among adults in Dire Dawa city, east Ethiopia: Population-based cross-sectional study (Accepted for publication  BMC Public health).

39.  Hirbo Shore Roba, MPH; Addisu Shunu, MPH; Asnake Ararsa, MPH; Berhe Gebremichael, MPH Prevalence of lifetime substances use among students in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis (accepted for publication Systematic Reviews BMC).

Conference

  1. Scientific paper presentation at 27th Ethiopian Public Health Association Scientific Annual Conference on Prevalence of vitamin A deficiency (night blindness) and associated factors among school-age children in Eastern Ethiopia held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 22-24 February 2016.
  2. Scientific paper presentation at 28th Ethiopian Public Health Association Scientific Annual Conference on Determinants of Antenatal Care service utilization among pregnant women in Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance System, 2014 held in Harar, Ethiopia, 19-22 February 2017.


Keywords

  • Adolescent Health
  • Gender-based violence
  • Global Burden of Diseases
  • Maternal Health
  • Non-communicable disease
  • Youth Health

Languages

  • Oromo (Mother)
  • English (Working)

Fields of Research

Code Description Percentage
111799 Public Health and Health Services not elsewhere classified 100

Professional Experience

Academic appointment

Dates Title Organisation / Department
15/02/2017 - 17/09/2020 PhD student The University of Newcastle
Australia
12/09/2012 - 10/11/2015 Coordinator Haramaya University, College of Health and Medical sciences,
College of Health and Medical Science
Ethiopia
12/07/2012 - 15/01/2017 Lecturer Haramaya University, College of Health and Medical sciences,
College of Health and Medical Science
Ethiopia
15/09/2008 - 15/07/2010 GAI, GAII and Assistant Lecturer Haramaya University, College of Health and Medical sciences,
College of Health and Medical Science
Ethiopia
Edit

Publications

For publications that are currently unpublished or in-press, details are shown in italics.


Journal article (26 outputs)

Year Citation Altmetrics Link
2019 Roba HS, Beyene AS, Mengesha MM, Ayele BH, 'Prevalence of Hypertension and Associated Factors in Dire Dawa City, Eastern Ethiopia: A Community-Based Cross-Sectional Study', International Journal of Hypertension, 2019 (2019)

© 2019 Hirbo Shore Roba et al. Background. Hypertension is a major cardiovascular risk factor that is linked with fatal complications and is an overwhelming global challenge. Prim... [more]

© 2019 Hirbo Shore Roba et al. Background. Hypertension is a major cardiovascular risk factor that is linked with fatal complications and is an overwhelming global challenge. Primary prevention is a key to control hypertension with identification of major risk factors. This study was aimed at assessing the prevalence and factors associated with hypertension. Methods. Community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 903 adults aged 25 to 64 years in Dire Dawa City, East Ethiopia. Data were collected using World Health Organization (WHO) STEPwise approach to Surveillance (STEPS) for non-communicable disease (NCD) standard survey tool. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify relative effects of distal, proximal, and immediate risk factors of hypertension, and all statistical tests were declared significantly at P-value<0.05. Results. The average SBP and DBP were 124.98±17.18 mmHg and 78.92±10.13 mmHg, respectively. The prevalence of hypertension was 24.43% (95% CI: 21.57, 27.28). Majority (51.64%) of adults were not aware of their elevated blood pressure status. hypertension was significantly associated with the age group 30-44 (aOR 3.61, 95% CI: 2.0, 6.55), 45-54 (aOR 5.36, 95% CI: 2.62, 10.91), and 55-64 (aOR 9.38, 95% CI: 4.73, 18.59), being unemployed (aOR 1.68, 95%CI: 1.03, 2.77), ever smoking (aOR 1.89, 95% CI: 1.04, 2.23), having abdominal obesity (aOR 1.72, 95% CI: 1.13, 2.64), and BMI=25 kg/m2 (aOR 1.48, 95%CI: 1.01, 2.15). Conclusion. Moderately high prevalence of hypertension was observed among adults in study setting demonstrating a major public health problem. Majority of adults with hypertension in study setting were not aware of their elevated BP status highlighting the burden of the hidden morbidity and subsequent complications. Community level intervention and routine assessment of sociodemographic, behavioral, and biophysiological risk factors, screening, and diagnosis of NCDs should be institutionalized to address the occult burden.

DOI 10.1155/2019/9878437
2019 Mengesha MM, Roba HS, Ayele BH, Beyene AS, 'Level of physical activity among urban adults and the socio-demographic correlates: A population-based cross-sectional study using the global physical activity questionnaire', BMC Public Health, 19 (2019) [C1]
DOI 10.1186/s12889-019-7465-y
2019 Beyene AS, Chojenta C, Roba HS, Melka AS, Loxton D, 'Gender-based violence among female youths in educational institutions of Sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis', SYSTEMATIC REVIEWS, 8 (2019) [C1]
DOI 10.1186/s13643-019-0969-9
Co-authors Catherine Chojenta, Deborah Loxton
2018 Kyu HH, Maddison ER, Henry NJ, Mumford JE, Barber R, Shields C, et al., 'The global burden of tuberculosis: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015', The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 18 261-284 (2018) [C1]

© 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license Background: An understanding of the trends in tuberculosis incide... [more]

© 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license Background: An understanding of the trends in tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality is crucial to tracking of the success of tuberculosis control programmes and identification of remaining challenges. We assessed trends in the fatal and non-fatal burden of tuberculosis over the past 25 years for 195 countries and territories. Methods: We analysed 10 691 site-years of vital registration data, 768 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 361 site-years of mortality surveillance data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate tuberculosis mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including annual case notifications, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We assessed how observed tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality differed from expected trends as predicted by the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator based on income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. We also estimated tuberculosis mortality and disability-adjusted life-years attributable to the independent effects of risk factors including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes. Findings: Globally, in 2015, the number of tuberculosis incident cases (including new and relapse cases) was 10·2 million (95% uncertainty interval 9·2 million to 11·5 million), the number of prevalent cases was 10·1 million (9·2 million to 11·1 million), and the number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·1 million to 1·6 million). Among individuals who were HIV negative, the number of incident cases was 8·8 million (8·0 million to 9·9 million), the number of prevalent cases was 8·9 million (8·1 million to 9·7 million), and the number of deaths was 1·1 million (0·9 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change from 2005 to 2015 showed a faster decline in mortality (-4·1% [-5·0 to -3·4]) than in incidence (-1·6% [-1·9 to -1·2]) and prevalence (-0·7% [-1·0 to -0·5]) among HIV-negative individuals. The SDI was inversely associated with HIV-negative mortality rates but did not show a clear gradient for incidence and prevalence. Most of Asia, eastern Europe, and sub-Saharan Africa had higher rates of HIV-negative tuberculosis burden than expected given their SDI. Alcohol use accounted for 11·4% (9·3¿13·0) of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals in 2015, diabetes accounted for 10·6% (6·8¿14·8), and smoking accounted for 7·8% (3·8¿12·0). Interpretation: Despite a concerted global effort to reduce the burden of tuberculosis, it still causes a large disease burden globally. Strengthening of health systems for early detection of tuberculosis and improvement of the quality of tuberculosis care, including prompt and accurate diagnosis, early initiation of treatment, and regular follow-up, are priorities. Countries with higher than expected tuberculosis rates for their level of sociodemographic development should investigate the reasons for lagging behind and take remedial action. Efforts to prevent smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes could also substantially reduce the burden of tuberculosis. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

DOI 10.1016/S1473-3099(17)30703-X
Citations Scopus - 62Web of Science - 57
2018 Mokdad AH, El Bcheraoui C, Wang H, Charara R, Khalil I, Moradi-Lakeh M, et al., 'Trends in HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality in Eastern Mediterranean countries, 1990-2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study', INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH, 63 123-136 (2018)
DOI 10.1007/s00038-017-1023-0
Citations Scopus - 5Web of Science - 4
2018 Griswold MG, Fullman N, Hawley C, Arian N, Zimsen SRM, Tymeson HD, et al., 'Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016', LANCET, 392 1015-1035 (2018)
DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31310-2
Citations Scopus - 191Web of Science - 173
2018 Mokdad AH, El Bcheraoui C, Afshin A, Charara R, Khalil I, Moradi-Lakeh M, et al., 'Burden of obesity in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study', International Journal of Public Health, 63 165-176 (2018)

© 2017, The Author(s). Objectives: We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015 study results to explore the burden of high body mass index (BMI) in the Eastern Mediterranean R... [more]

© 2017, The Author(s). Objectives: We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015 study results to explore the burden of high body mass index (BMI) in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR). Methods: We estimated the prevalence of overweight and obesity among children (2¿19¿years) and adults (=20¿years) in 1980 and 2015. The burden of disease related to high BMI was calculated using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach. Results: The prevalence of obesity increased for adults from 15.1% (95% UI 13.4¿16.9) in 1980 to 20.7% (95% UI 18.8¿22.8) in 2015. It increased from 4.1% (95% UI 2.9¿5.5) to 4.9% (95% UI 3.6¿6.4) for the same period among children. In 2015, there were 417,115 deaths and 14,448,548 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to high BMI in EMR, which constitute about 10 and 6.3% of total deaths and DALYs, respectively, for all ages. Conclusions: This is the first study to estimate trends in obesity burden for the EMR from 1980 to 2015. We call for EMR countries to invest more resources in prevention and health promotion efforts to reduce this burden.

DOI 10.1007/s00038-017-1002-5
Citations Scopus - 7
2018 Degenhardt L, Charlson F, Ferrari A, Santomauro D, Erskine H, Mantilla-Herrara A, et al., 'The global burden of disease attributable to alcohol and drug use in 195 countries and territories, 1990 2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016', The Lancet Psychiatry, 5 987-1012 (2018)
DOI 10.1016/s2215-0366(18)30337-7
2017 Barber RM, Fullman N, Sorensen RJD, Bollyky T, McKee M, Nolte E, Abajobir AA, 'Healthcare Access and Quality Index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a novel analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015', LANCET, 390 231-266 (2017) [C1]
DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30818-8
Citations Scopus - 157Web of Science - 133
Co-authors Dimity Pond
2017 Reitsma MB, Fullman N, Ng M, Salama JS, Abajobir A, Abate KH, et al., 'Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015', LANCET, 389 1885-1906 (2017)
DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30819-X
Citations Scopus - 282Web of Science - 246
2017 Dieleman J, Campbell M, Chapin A, Eldrenkamp E, Fan VY, Haakenstad A, et al., 'Evolution and patterns of global health financing 1995-2014: Development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries', The Lancet, 389 1981-2004 (2017)

© The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. Background: An adequate amount of prepaid resources for health is important to ensure access to health services and for the pursuit of ... [more]

© The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. Background: An adequate amount of prepaid resources for health is important to ensure access to health services and for the pursuit of universal health coverage. Previous studies on global health financing have described the relationship between economic development and health financing. In this study, we further explore global health financing trends and examine how the sources of funds used, types of services purchased, and development assistance for health disbursed change with economic development. We also identify countries that deviate from the trends. Methods: We estimated national health spending by type of care and by source, including development assistance for health, based on a diverse set of data including programme reports, budget data, national estimates, and 964 National Health Accounts. These data represent health spending for 184 countries from 1995 through 2014. We converted these data into a common inflation-adjusted and purchasing power-adjusted currency, and used non-linear regression methods to model the relationship between health financing, time, and economic development. Findings: Between 1995 and 2014, economic development was positively associated with total health spending and a shift away from a reliance on development assistance and out-of-pocket (OOP) towards government spending. The largest absolute increase in spending was in high-income countries, which increased to purchasing power-adjusted $5221 per capita based on an annual growth rate of 3.0%. The largest health spending growth rates were in upper-middle-income (5.9) and lower-middle-income groups (5.0), which both increased spending at more than 5% per year, and spent $914 and $267 per capita in 2014, respectively. Spending in low-income countries grew nearly as fast, at 4.6%, and health spending increased from $51 to $120 per capita. In 2014, 59.2% of all health spending was financed by the government, although in low-income and lower-middle-income countries, 29.1% and 58.0% of spending was OOP spending and 35.7% and 3.0% of spending was development assistance. Recent growth in development assistance for health has been tepid; between 2010 and 2016, it grew annually at 1.8%, and reached US$37.6 billion in 2016. Nonetheless, there is a great deal of variation revolving around these averages. 29 countries spend at least 50% more than expected per capita, based on their level of economic development alone, whereas 11 countries spend less than 50% their expected amount. Interpretation: Health spending remains disparate, with low-income and lower-middle-income countries increasing spending in absolute terms the least, and relying heavily on OOP spending and development assistance. Moreover, tremendous variation shows that neither time nor economic development guarantee adequate prepaid health resources, which are vital for the pursuit of universal health coverage.

DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30874-7
Citations Scopus - 72
2017 Dieleman JL, Campbell M, Chapin A, Eldrenkamp E, Fan VY, Haakenstad A, et al., 'Future and potential spending on health 2015-40: Development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries', The Lancet, 389 2005-2030 (2017)

© The Author(s). Background: The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health sp... [more]

© The Author(s). Background: The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spending can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. Methods: We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980-2015, and health spend data from 1995-2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted. Findings: We estimated that global spending on health will increase from US$9.21 trillion in 2014 to $24.24 trillion (uncertainty interval [UI] 20.47-29.72) in 2040. We expect per capita health spending to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 5.3% (UI 4.1-6.8) per year. This growth is driven by continued growth in GDP, government spending, and government health spending. Lower-middle income countries are expected to grow at 4.2% (3.8-4.9). High-income countries are expected to grow at 2.1% (UI 1.8-2.4) and low-income countries are expected to grow at 1.8% (1.0-2.8). Despite this growth, health spending per capita in low-income countries is expected to remain low, at $154 (UI 133-181) per capita in 2030 and $195 (157-258) per capita in 2040. Increases in national health spending to reach the level of the countries who spend the most on health, relative to their level of economic development, would mean $321 (157-258) per capita was available for health in 2040 in low-income countries. Interpretation: Health spending is associated with economic development but past trends and relationships suggest that spending will remain variable, and low in some low-resource settings. Policy change could lead to increased health spending, although for the poorest countries external support might remain essential.

DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30873-5
Citations Scopus - 47
2017 Fullman N, Barber RM, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, et al., 'Erratum:Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 (The Lancet (2017) 390(10100) (1423 1459) (S014067361732336X)(10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X))', The Lancet, 390 e23 (2017)

© 2017 Elsevier Ltd GBD 2016 SDG Collaborators. Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188... [more]

© 2017 Elsevier Ltd GBD 2016 SDG Collaborators. Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 2017; 390: 1423¿59¿In figure 8B of this Article (published Online First on Sept 12, 2017), the number of indicator targets has been changed from 1 to 9 for Turkmenistan, from 0 to 1 for Afghanistan, and from 1 to 2 for Yemen. Ettore Beghi, Neeraj Bhala, Hélène Carabin, Raimundas Lunevicius, Donald H Silberberg, and Caitlyn Steiner have been added to the list of GBD 2016 SDG Collaborators. Their affiliations, along with the affiliation of Soumya Swaminathan, have been added to the Affiliations section. These corrections have been made to the online version as of Sept 18, 2017, and the printed Article is correct.

DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32441-8
2017 Fullman N, Barber RM, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, et al., 'Erratum: Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 (The Lancet (2017) 390(10100) (1423 1459) (S014067361732336X) (10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X))', The Lancet, 390 e38 (2017)

© 2017 Elsevier Ltd GBD 2016 SDG Collaborators. Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188... [more]

© 2017 Elsevier Ltd GBD 2016 SDG Collaborators. Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 2017; 390: 1423¿59¿The full-text version of this Article has been updated so that the list of authors is displayed in the correct order, in line with the pdf version, rather than in alphabetical order. This correction has been made to the online version as of Oct 12, 2017.

DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32650-8
2017 Kassebaum N, Hmwe Kyu H, Zoeckler L, Elizabeth Olsen H, Thomas K, Pinho C, et al., 'Child and Adolescent Health From 1990 to 2015 Findings From the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2015 Study', JAMA PEDIATRICS, 171 573-592 (2017)
DOI 10.1001/jamapediatrics.2017.0250
Citations Scopus - 72Web of Science - 72
2017 Soriano JB, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abera SF, Agrawal A, Ahmed MB, et al., 'Global, regional, and national deaths, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years, and years lived with disability for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015', LANCET RESPIRATORY MEDICINE, 5 691-706 (2017)
DOI 10.1016/S2213-2600(17)30293-X
Citations Scopus - 357Web of Science - 316
2017 Hay SI, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, et al., 'Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016', LANCET, 390 1260-1344 (2017)
DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32130-X
Citations Scopus - 502Web of Science - 484
2017 Gakidou E, Afshin A, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, et al., 'Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016', LANCET, 390 1345-1422 (2017)
DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32366-8
Citations Scopus - 624Web of Science - 595
2017 Wang H, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, et al., 'Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016', LANCET, 390 1084-1150 (2017)
DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)31833-0
Citations Scopus - 213Web of Science - 201
2017 Vos T, Abajobir AA, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abate KH, Abd-Allah F, et al., 'Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016', LANCET, 390 1211-1259 (2017)
DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32154-2
Citations Scopus - 991Web of Science - 847
2017 Fullman N, Barber RM, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, et al., 'Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016', LANCET, 390 1423-1459 (2017)
DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X
Citations Scopus - 93Web of Science - 81
2016 Forouzanfar MH, Afshin A, Alexander LT, Biryukov S, Brauer M, Cercy K, et al., 'Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015', Lancet (London, England), 388 1659-1724 (2016) [C1]

Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved. BACKGROUND: The... [more]

Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved. BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.METHODS: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI).FINDINGS: Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa.INTERPRETATION: Declin...

DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31679-8
Citations Scopus - 1090Web of Science - 864
Co-authors Dimity Pond
2016 Vos T, Allen C, Arora M, Barber RM, Brown A, Carter A, et al., 'Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990 2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015', The Lancet, 388 1545-1602 (2016) [C1]

© 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license Background Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract fr... [more]

© 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license Background Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015. Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60¿900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores. Findings We generated 9·3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17·2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 15·4¿19·2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2·39 billion, 2·30¿2·50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2·36 billion (2·35¿2·37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20¿30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is...

DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31678-6
Citations Scopus - 1676Web of Science - 1638
Co-authors Dimity Pond
2016 Wang H, Naghavi M, Allen C, Barber RM, Bhutta ZA, Carter A, et al., 'Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015', LANCET, 388 1459-1544 (2016)
DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31012-1
Citations Scopus - 1804Web of Science - 1705
2016 Lim SS, Allen K, Bhutta ZA, Dandona L, Forouzanfar MH, Fullman N, et al., 'Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015', LANCET, 388 1813-1850 (2016)
DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31467-2
Citations Scopus - 170Web of Science - 163
Hirbo S, Addisu S, 'Risky sexual behavior and associated factors among youth in Haramaya Secondary and Preparatory School, East Ethiopia, 2015', Journal of Public Health and Epidemiology, 9 84-91
DOI 10.5897/jphe2016.0905
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Mr Addisu Shunu Beyene

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