| 2024 |
Gronau QF, Hinder MR, Salomoni SE, Matzke D, Heathcote A, 'A unified account of simple and response-selective inhibition.', Cogn Psychol, 149 101628 (2024) [C1]
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Nova |
| 2024 |
Gronau QF, Steyvers M, Brown SD, 'How do you know that you don't know?', Cognitive Systems Research, 86 (2024) [C1]
Whenever someone in a team tries to help others, it is crucial that they have some understanding of other team members¿ goals. In modern teams, this applies equally to human and a... [more] Whenever someone in a team tries to help others, it is crucial that they have some understanding of other team members¿ goals. In modern teams, this applies equally to human and artificial (¿bot¿) assistants. Understanding when one does not know something is crucial for stopping the execution of inappropriate behavior and, ideally, attempting to learn more appropriate actions. From a statistical point of view, this can be translated to assessing whether none of the hypotheses in a considered set is correct. Here we investigate a novel approach for making this assessment based on monitoring the maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) of a set of candidate hypotheses as new observations arrive. Simulation studies suggest that this is a promising approach, however, we also caution that there may be cases where this is more challenging. The problem we study and the solution we propose are general, with applications well beyond human¿bot teaming, including for example the scientific process of theory development.
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Nova |
| 2024 |
Stefan AM, Gronau QF, Wagenmakers E-J, 'Interim design analysis using Bayes factor forecasts.', Psychol Methods, (2024) [C1]
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| 2023 |
Boehm U, Evans NJ, Gronau QF, Matzke D, Wagenmakers E-J, Heathcote AJ, 'Inclusion Bayes Factors for Mixed Hierarchical Diffusion Decision Models', PSYCHOLOGICAL METHODS, [C1]
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| 2023 |
Sarafoglou A, Haaf JM, Ly A, Gronau QF, Wagenmakers E-J, Marsman M, 'Evaluating multinomial order restrictions with bridge sampling.', Psychological Methods, 28 322-338 [C1]
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| 2023 |
Singmann H, Kellen D, Cox GE, Chandramouli SH, Davis-Stober CP, Dunn JC, et al., 'Statistics in the Service of Science: Don t Let the Tail Wag the Dog', Computational Brain & Behavior, 6 64-83 (2023) [C1]
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| 2023 |
Hoogeveen S, Berkhout SW, Gronau QF, Wagenmakers EJ, Haaf JM, 'Improving Statistical Analysis in Team Science: The Case of a Bayesian Multiverse of Many Labs 4', Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 6 (2023) [C1]
Team-science projects have become the ¿gold standard¿ for assessing the replicability and variability of key findings in psychological science. However, we believe the typical met... [more] Team-science projects have become the ¿gold standard¿ for assessing the replicability and variability of key findings in psychological science. However, we believe the typical meta-analytic approach in these projects fails to match the wealth of collected data. Instead, we advocate the use of Bayesian hierarchical modeling for team-science projects, potentially extended in a multiverse analysis. We illustrate this full-scale analysis by applying it to the recently published Many Labs 4 project. This project aimed to replicate the mortality-salience effect¿that being reminded of one¿s own death strengthens the own cultural identity. In a multiverse analysis, we assess the robustness of the results with varying data-inclusion criteria and prior settings. Bayesian model comparison results largely converge to a common conclusion: The data provide evidence against a mortality-salience effect across the majority of our analyses. We issue general recommendations to facilitate full-scale analyses in team-science projects.
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Nova |
| 2023 |
Berkhout SW, Haaf JM, Gronau QF, Heck DW, Wagenmakers E-J, 'A tutorial on Bayesian model-averaged meta-analysis in JASP', Behavior Research Methods, 56 1260-1282
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| 2023 |
Salomoni SE, Gronau QF, Heathcote A, Matzke D, Hinder MR, 'Proactive cues facilitate faster action reprogramming, but not stopping, in a response-selective stop signal task.', Sci Rep, 13 19564 (2023) [C1]
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Nova |
| 2023 |
van Doorn J, Haaf JM, Stefan AM, Wagenmakers EJ, Cox GE, Davis-Stober CP, et al., 'Bayes Factors for Mixed Models: a Discussion', Computational Brain and Behavior, 6 140-158 (2023) [C1]
van Doorn et al. (2021) outlined various questions that arise when conducting Bayesian model comparison for mixed effects models. Seven response articles offered their own perspec... [more] van Doorn et al. (2021) outlined various questions that arise when conducting Bayesian model comparison for mixed effects models. Seven response articles offered their own perspective on the preferred setup for mixed model comparison, on the most appropriate specification of prior distributions, and on the desirability of default recommendations. This article presents a round-table discussion that aims to clarify outstanding issues, explore common ground, and outline practical considerations for any researcher wishing to conduct a Bayesian mixed effects model comparison.
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Nova |
| 2023 |
Gronau QF, Bennett MS, Brown SD, Hawkins GE, Eidels A, 'Do choice tasks and rating scales elicit the same judgments?', Journal of Choice Modelling, 49 100437-100437 (2023) [C1]
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Nova |
| 2022 |
Wagenmakers E-J, Gronau QF, Dablander F, Etz A, 'The Support Interval', Erkenntnis, 87 589-601 (2022) [C1]
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| 2022 |
Dablander F, Huth K, Gronau QF, Etz A, Wagenmakers E, 'A puzzle of proportions: Two popular Bayesian tests can yield dramatically different conclusions', Statistics in Medicine, 41 1319-1333 (2022) [C1]
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| 2022 |
Stefan AM, Katsimpokis D, Gronau QF, Wagenmakers E-J, 'Expert agreement in prior elicitation and its effects on Bayesian inference', Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 29 1776-1794 (2022) [C1]
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| 2021 |
Barto F, Gronau QF, Timmers B, Otte WM, Ly A, Wagenmakers E, 'Bayesian model-averaged meta-analysis in medicine', Statistics in Medicine, 40 6743-6761 (2021) [C1]
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| 2021 |
Vohs KD, Schmeichel BJ, Lohmann S, Gronau QF, Finley AJ, Ainsworth SE, et al., 'A Multisite Preregistered Paradigmatic Test of the Ego-Depletion Effect', Psychological Science, 32 1566-1581 (2021) [C1]
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| 2021 |
van Doorn J, van den Bergh D, Böhm U, Dablander F, Derks K, Draws T, et al., 'The JASP guidelines for conducting and reporting a Bayesian analysis', Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 28 813-826 (2021) [C1]
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| 2021 |
van Doorn J, Wagenmakers E-J, 'Strong Public Claims May not Reflect Researchers' Private Convictions', Significance, 18 44-45 (2021)
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| 2021 |
Gronau QF, Heck DW, Berkhout SW, Haaf JM, Wagenmakers E-J, 'A Primer on Bayesian Model-Averaged Meta-Analysis', Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 4 251524592110312-251524592110312 (2021) [C1]
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| 2021 |
Bergh DVD, Clyde MA, Gupta ARKN, de Jong T, Gronau QF, Marsman M, et al., 'A tutorial on Bayesian multi-model linear regression with BAS and JASP', Behavior Research Methods, 53 2351-2371 [C1]
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| 2021 |
Gronau QF, N ARK, Wagenmakers E-J, 'Informed Bayesian Inference for the A/B Test', Journal of Statistical Software, 100 [C1]
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| 2021 |
Hulme OJ, Wagenmakers E-J, Damkier P, Madelung CF, Siebner HR, Helweg-Larsen J, et al., 'A Bayesian reanalysis of the effects of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin on viral carriage in patients with COVID-19', PLOS ONE, 16 e0245048-e0245048 [C1]
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| 2020 |
Gronau QF, Ly A, Wagenmakers E-J, 'Informed Bayesian
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| 2020 |
van den Bergh D, van Doorn J, Marsman M, Draws T, van Kesteren E-J, Derks K, et al., 'A Tutorial on Conducting and Interpreting a Bayesian ANOVA in JASP', L Année psychologique, Vol. 120 73-96 (2020) [C1]
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| 2020 |
Landy JF, Jia ML, Ding IL, Viganola D, Tierney W, Dreber A, et al., 'Crowdsourcing hypothesis tests: Making transparent how design choices shape research results.', Psychological Bulletin, 146 451-479 [C1]
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| 2020 |
Hinne M, Gronau QF, van den Bergh D, Wagenmakers E-J, 'A Conceptual Introduction to Bayesian Model Averaging', Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 3 200-215 (2020) [C1]
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| 2020 |
Ly A, Stefan A, van Doorn J, Dablander F, van den Bergh D, Sarafoglou A, et al., 'The Bayesian Methodology of Sir Harold Jeffreys as a Practical Alternative to the P Value Hypothesis Test', Computational Brain & Behavior, 3 153-161 (2020) [C1]
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| 2020 |
Gronau QF, Lee MD, 'Bayesian Inference for Multidimensional Scaling Representations with Psychologically Interpretable Metrics', Computational Brain & Behavior, 3 322-340 (2020) [C1]
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| 2020 |
Gronau QF, Singmann H, Wagenmakers E-J, 'bridgesampling: An R Package for Estimating Normalizing Constants', Journal of Statistical Software, 92 (2020) [C1]
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| 2020 |
Gronau QF, Heathcote A, Matzke D, 'Computing Bayes factors for evidence-accumulation models using Warp-III bridge sampling', BEHAVIOR RESEARCH METHODS, 52 918-937 (2020) [C1]
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| 2019 |
van Dongen NNN, van Doorn JB, Gronau QF, van Ravenzwaaij D, Hoekstra R, Haucke MN, et al., 'Multiple Perspectives on Inference for Two Simple Statistical Scenarios', American Statistician, 73 328-339 (2019)
When data analysts operate within different statistical frameworks (e.g., frequentist versus Bayesian, emphasis on estimation versus emphasis on testing), how does this impact the... [more] When data analysts operate within different statistical frameworks (e.g., frequentist versus Bayesian, emphasis on estimation versus emphasis on testing), how does this impact the qualitative conclusions that are drawn for real data? To study this question empirically we selected from the literature two simple scenarios¿involving a comparison of two proportions and a Pearson correlation¿and asked four teams of statisticians to provide a concise analysis and a qualitative interpretation of the outcome. The results showed considerable overall agreement; nevertheless, this agreement did not appear to diminish the intensity of the subsequent debate over which statistical framework is more appropriate to address the questions at hand.
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| 2019 |
Gronau QF, Wagenmakers E-J, Heck DW, Matzke D, 'A Simple Method for Comparing Complex Models: Bayesian Model Comparison for Hierarchical Multinomial Processing Tree Models Using Warp-III Bridge Sampling', Psychometrika, 84 261-284 (2019) [C1]
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| 2019 |
Heck DW, Overstall AM, Gronau QF, Wagenmakers E-J, 'Quantifying uncertainty in transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo using discrete Markov models', Statistics and Computing, 29 631-643 (2019) [C1]
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| 2019 |
Boffo M, Zerhouni O, Gronau QF, van Beek RJJ, Nikolaou K, Marsman M, Wiers RW, 'Cognitive Bias Modification for Behavior Change in Alcohol and Smoking Addiction: Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Individual Participant Data', Neuropsychology Review, 29 52-78 (2019) [C1]
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| 2019 |
Gronau QF, Wagenmakers E-J, 'Limitations of Bayesian Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation for Model Selection', Computational Brain & Behavior, 2 1-11 (2019) [C1]
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| 2019 |
Gronau QF, Wagenmakers E-J, 'Rejoinder: More Limitations of Bayesian Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation', Computational Brain & Behavior, 2 35-47 (2019) [C1]
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| 2019 |
Stefan AM, Gronau QF, Schönbrodt FD, Wagenmakers E-J, 'A tutorial on Bayes Factor Design Analysis using an informed prior', Behavior Research Methods, 51 1042-1058 (2019) [C1]
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| 2019 |
Love J, Selker R, Marsman M, Jamil T, Dropmann D, Verhagen J, et al., 'JASP: Graphical Statistical Software for Common Statistical Designs', Journal of Statistical Software, 88 1-17 (2019) [C1]
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Nova |
| 2018 |
Wagenmakers E-J, Love J, Marsman M, Jamil T, Ly A, Verhagen J, et al., 'Bayesian inference for psychology. Part II: Example applications with JASP', Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 25 58-76 (2018) [C1]
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| 2018 |
Wagenmakers E-J, Marsman M, Jamil T, Ly A, Verhagen J, Love J, et al., 'Bayesian inference for psychology. Part I: Theoretical advantages and practical ramifications', Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 25 35-57 (2018) [C1]
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| 2018 |
Gronau QF, Wagenmakers E-J, 'Bayesian Evidence Accumulation in Experimental Mathematics: A Case Study of Four Irrational Numbers', Experimental Mathematics, 27 277-286 (2018) [C1]
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| 2018 |
Etz A, Gronau QF, Dablander F, Edelsbrunner PA, Baribault B, 'How to become a Bayesian in eight easy steps: An annotated reading list', Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 25 219-234 (2018)
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| 2018 |
Aczel B, Palfi B, Szollosi A, Kovacs M, Szaszi B, Szecsi P, et al., 'Quantifying Support for the Null Hypothesis in Psychology: An Empirical Investigation', Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 1 357-366 (2018) [C1]
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| 2018 |
Ly A, Raj A, Etz A, Marsman M, Gronau QF, Wagenmakers E-J, 'Bayesian Reanalyses From Summary Statistics: A Guide for Academic Consumers', Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 1 367-374 (2018) [C1]
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| 2017 |
Gronau QF, Sarafoglou A, Matzke D, Ly A, Boehm U, Marsman M, et al., 'A tutorial on bridge sampling', Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 81 80-97 (2017) [C1]
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| 2017 |
Gronau QF, Duizer M, Bakker M, Wagenmakers E-J, 'Bayesian mixture modeling of significant p values: A meta-analytic method to estimate the degree of contamination from H0.', Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 146 1223-1233 [C1]
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| 2017 |
Scheibehenne B, Gronau QF, Jamil T, Wagenmakers E-J, 'Fixed or Random? A Resolution Through Model Averaging: Reply to Carlsson, Schimmack, Williams, and Bürkner (2017)', Psychological Science, 28 1698-1701 (2017)
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| 2017 |
Gronau QF, Van Erp S, Heck DW, Cesario J, Jonas KJ, Wagenmakers E-J, 'A Bayesian model-averaged meta-analysis of the power pose effect with informed and default priors: the case of felt power', Comprehensive Results in Social Psychology, 2 123-138 (2017) [C1]
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| 2016 |
Schweinsberg M, Madan N, Vianello M, Sommer SA, Jordan J, Tierney W, et al., 'The pipeline project: Pre-publication independent replications of a single laboratory's research pipeline', Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 66 55-67 (2016) [C1]
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| 2016 |
Wagenmakers E-J, Beek T, Dijkhoff L, Gronau QF, Acosta A, Adams RB, et al., 'Registered Replication Report', Perspectives on Psychological Science, 11 917-928 (2016) [C1]
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| 2016 |
Tierney W, Schweinsberg M, Jordan J, Kennedy DM, Qureshi I, Sommer SA, et al., 'Data from a pre-publication independent replication initiative examining ten moral judgement effects', Scientific Data, 3 [C1]
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| 2015 |
Wagenmakers E-J, Beek TF, Rotteveel M, Gierholz A, Matzke D, Steingroever H, et al., 'Turning the hands of time again: a purely confirmatory replication study and a Bayesian analysis', Frontiers in Psychology, 6
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| 2015 |
van Elk M, Matzke D, Gronau QF, Guan M, Vandekerckhove J, Wagenmakers E-J, 'Meta-analyses are no substitute for registered replications: a skeptical perspective on religious priming', Frontiers in Psychology, 6
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