Project - Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Structural Damage and Occupant Safety Risks Due to Explosive Blast Loading

Investigators
Prof M G Stewart, Dr Xueying Wei, Mr Michael Netherton

Project Description
This is an Australian Research Council funded research project. The project is using probabilistic risk assessment techniques to predict damage and casualty risks arising from explosive blast loading on building facades and other structural systems. The project is developing a new probabilistic computational model   called "Blast-RF" (Blast Risks for Facades)   that incorporates existing (deterministic) blast-response models within an environment that considers threat and vulnerability uncertainty and variability via probability and structural reliability theory. Current work is focusing on glazing and masonry. The structural reliability analysis uses strength limit states and safety and casualty rating criteria to calculate probabilities of damage and safety hazards conditional on a given blast scenario. This allows the prediction of likelihood and extent of damage and/or casualties for a single window or component or for an entire building facade. The reliability analysis considers the variability of explosive material energetic output, pressure impulse, stress limit, fragment drag coefficient, structural component dimensions, stand-off distance and explosive weight. Blast-RF may then be used:

  1. as a decision support tool to mitigate damage,
  2. by emergency services to predict the extent and likelihood of damage and hazard levels in contingency planning and emergency response simulations,
  3. in collateral damage estimation and weaponeering by military planners, or
  4. in post-blast forensics.

Selected Publications

  • Stewart, M.G., Netherton, M.D. and Rosowsky, D.V. (2006), Terrorism Risks and Blast Damage to Built Infrastructure, Natural Hazards Review, ASCE, Vol. 7, No. 3, pp. 114-122.
  • Stewart, M.G. and Netherton, M.D. (2008), Security Risks And Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Glazing Subject to Explosive Blast Loading, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Vol. 93, No. 4, pp. 627-638.
  • Netherton, M.D. and Stewart, M.G. (2009), Probabilistic Modelling of Safety Hazard and Damage Blast Risks for Window Glazing, Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, (in press).