Dr Natalie Lockart
Adjunct Lecturer
School of Engineering
- Email:natalie.lockart@newcastle.edu.au
- Phone:(02) 4921 2063
Career Summary
Qualifications
- Bachelor of Engineering (Env Eng)(Honours), University of Newcastle
Publications
For publications that are currently unpublished or in-press, details are shown in italics.
Journal article (10 outputs)
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2022 |
Askland HH, Shannon B, Chiong R, Lockart N, Maguire A, Rich J, Groizard J, 'Beyond migration: a critical review of climate change induced displacement', Environmental Sociology, 8 267-278 (2022) [C1] Scholarship on displacement caused by the effects of climate change generally approaches displacement as the involuntary movement of people. However, in this article, we argue tha... [more] Scholarship on displacement caused by the effects of climate change generally approaches displacement as the involuntary movement of people. However, in this article, we argue that there are uncertainties surrounding Climate Change Induced Displacement (CCID) that are partly caused by discursive ambiguity around the notion of ¿displacement¿¿a concept that remains poorly defined in the context of climate change research¿and a conflation between displacement due to quick-onset disaster events and the cumulative pressure of living in an environment marked by a disrupted climate. Reflecting on the impacts of the Australian bushfires in 2019¿20, we conceptualise CCID beyond migration as an event and a physical relocation across geographical space. Even fast-onset disaster events, such as the Australian bushfires, can dispossess and displace beyond the immediate threat of the fire front; but this displacement is not necessarily aligned with movement and migration, nor is it evenly proportioned across populations. Based on a review of existing literature on CCID, we identify three key tensions shaping scholarship on CCID: conceptualisation; distribution of risk and impact; and discursive framing. Together, we contend, these tensions highlight the imperative of striving for conceptual clarity and awareness of distributional inequities of risk and vulnerabilities.
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Nova | |||||||||
2020 |
Lockart N, Kiem AS, Chiong R, Askland HH, Maguire A, Rich JL, 'Projected change in meteorological drought characteristics using regional climate model data for the Hunter region of Australia', Climate Research, 80 85-104 (2020) [C1]
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Nova | |||||||||
2017 |
Chowdhury AFMK, Lockart N, Willgoose G, Kuczera G, Kiem AS, Manage NP, 'Development and evaluation of a stochastic daily rainfall model with long-term variability', HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, 21 6541-6558 (2017) [C1]
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Nova | |||||||||
2016 |
Lockart N, Willgoose G, Kuczera G, Kiem AS, Chowdhury A, Parana Manage N, et al., 'Case study on the use of dynamically downscaled climate model data for assessing water security in the Lower Hunter region of the eastern seaboard of Australia', Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science, 66 177-202 (2016) [C1]
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Nova | |||||||||
2016 |
Kiem AS, Twomey C, Lockart N, Willgoose G, Kuczera G, Chowdhury A, et al., 'Links between East Coast Lows and the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall along the eastern seaboard of Australia', Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science, 66 162-176 (2016) [C1]
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Nova | |||||||||
2016 |
Parana Manage N, Lockart N, Willgoose G, Kuczera G, Kiem AS, Chowdhury A, et al., 'Statistical testing of dynamically downscaled rainfall data for the Upper Hunter region, New South Wales, Australia', Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science, 66 203-227 (2016) [C1]
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Nova | |||||||||
2015 |
Lockart N, Kavetski D, Franks SW, 'A new stochastic model for simulating daily solar radiation from sunshine hours', International Journal of Climatology, 35 1090-1106 (2015) Many empirical models have been developed that use sunshine hours (SSH) data to estimate global solar radiation. Most of these models use the Angstrom-Prescott equation to produce... [more] Many empirical models have been developed that use sunshine hours (SSH) data to estimate global solar radiation. Most of these models use the Angstrom-Prescott equation to produce deterministic estimates of monthly radiation and do not provide uncertainty estimates in their predictions. This study develops five stochastic models that use daily SSH data to produce probabilistic simulations of global radiation, including associated uncertainties. These models can be used to estimate historical daily radiation or to estimate radiation without the use of satellite data. Two sources of predictive uncertainty are considered: (1) the timing of the SSH during the day (estimated using Monte Carlo simulation) and (2) external errors such as variability in cloud type and amount (estimated using residual error modelling). The models differ in the parameterization of the diffuse and direct radiation, using either no scaling, linear or quadratic scaling of the radiation by the daily SSH fraction to account for cloud attenuation. The models are calibrated under several residual error assumptions, including constant, linear and quadratic variances dependent on the SSH fraction and simulated radiation. The five models perform equally well in simulating global radiation, with an average error of approximately 9% for all locations studied. The results suggest that SSH uncertainty does not dominate predictive errors in global radiation. The residual errors appear to be best described by a linear heteroscedastic structure with larger variance during cloudy days and smaller variance during sunny days. The developed methodology provides a novel approach for estimating the uncertainty in radiation estimates based on SSH data.
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2013 |
Lockart N, Kavetski D, Franks SW, 'On the role of soil moisture in daytime evolution of temperatures', Hydrological Processes, 27 3896-3904 (2013) [C1]
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Nova | |||||||||
2010 |
Franks SW, Kavetski DN, Lockart NA, 'Reply to the comment of Cai et al. on the paper 'On the recent warming in the Murray-Darling Basin: Land surface interactions misunderstood' by Lockart et al', Geophysical Research Letters, 37 L10403 (2010) [C3]
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2009 |
Lockart N, Kavetski D, Franks SW, 'On the recent warming in the Murray-Darling Basin: Land surface interactions misunderstood', Geophysical Research Letters, 36 (2009) Previous studies of the recent drought in the MurrayDarling Basin (MDB) have noted that low rainfall totals have been accompanied by anomalously high air temperatures. Subsequent ... [more] Previous studies of the recent drought in the MurrayDarling Basin (MDB) have noted that low rainfall totals have been accompanied by anomalously high air temperatures. Subsequent studies have interpreted an identified trend in the residual timeseries of non-rainfall related temperature variability as a signal of anthropogenic change, further speculating that increased air temperature has exacerbated the drought through increasing evapotranspiration rates. In this study, we explore an alternative explanation of the recent increases in air temperature. This study demonstrates that significant misunderstanding of known processes of land surface - atmosphere interactions has led to the incorrect attribution of the causes of the anomalous temperatures, as well as significant misunderstanding of their impact on evaporation within the Murray-Darling Basin. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.
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Show 7 more journal articles |
Conference (15 outputs)
Year | Citation | Altmetrics | Link | ||||
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2022 |
Berghout B, Lockart N, 'Application of a Novel Approach to Calculating Yield for Source Water Supply Planning', Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, HWRS 2022, Brisbane, QLD (2022) [E1]
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2022 |
Lockart N, Berghout B, 'The Flow of Numbers through the Lower Hunter Water Security Plan', Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, HWRS 2022, Brisbane, QLD (2022) [E1]
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2016 |
Zhang L, Kuczera G, Kiem AS, Willgoose GR, Lockart N, 'Assessment of the AWAP large-scale hydrological model's ability to detect the influence of climate variability on streamflow in eastern Australia', 37th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, Queenstown, New Zealand (2016)
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2015 |
Kiem AS, Twomey C, Lockart N, Willgoose G, Kuczera G, 'The impact of East Coast Lows (ECL) on eastern Australia's hydroclimate - Do we need to consider sub-categories of ECLs?', The Art and Science of Water - 36th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, HWRS 2015 (2015) [E1] © 2015, Engineers Australia. All rights reserved.East Coast Lows (ECLs) are intense low-pressure systems which occur over the subtropical east coasts of Southern Hemisphere contin... [more] © 2015, Engineers Australia. All rights reserved.East Coast Lows (ECLs) are intense low-pressure systems which occur over the subtropical east coasts of Southern Hemisphere continents, including Australia. These systems are typically associated with gale-force winds, large seas, storm surges, heavy rainfall and flooding. While these ECL impacts are mostly negative the rainfall associated with ECLs is also very important for urban water security within the heavily populated eastern seaboard of Australian (ESA). This study examines historical ECLs to gain insights into the timing, frequency and location of ECL occurrence as well as the magnitude and spatial extent of ECL impacts on rainfall. The different characteristics and impacts associated with the different ECL sub-types are highlighted and it is demonstrated how this information can be used to stochastically simulate daily rainfall such that the statistics important for catchment scale hydrology (e.g. clustering of extreme events, long-term persistence, frequency/duration/magnitude of wet and dry spells etc.) are realistically preserved. These simulated rainfall sequences, that incorporate the spatial and temporal hydroclimatic variability caused by ECLs and other climate phenomena, are important inputs into hydrological models used to determine current and future urban water security.
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Nova | |||||
2015 |
Chowdhury AFM, Lockart N, Willgoose GR, Kuczera G, Kiem AS, Parana Manage N, 'Modelling daily rainfall in East Coast of Australia using a Compound Distribution Markov Chain model', 36th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, Hobart, Tas. (2015) [E1]
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Nova | |||||
2015 |
Parana Manage N, Lockart N, Willgoose GR, Kuczera G, Kiem AS, Chowdhury AFM, 'Testing the statistics of dynamically down-scaled rainfall data for the east coast of NSW', Hobart, Tas. (2015) [E1]
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Nova | |||||
2015 |
Lockart N, Willgoose GR, Kuczera G, Kiem AS, Chowdhury AFM, Parana Manage N, 'Use of NARCliM Rainfall Data for Simulating Streamflow in the
Williams River Catchment', 36th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, Hobart, Australia (2015) [E1]
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Nova | |||||
2015 |
Lockart N, Willgoose GR, Kuczera G, Kiem AS, Chowdhury AFMK, Parana Manage N, 'Use of a stochastic rainfall generation model calibrated to NARCliM data to simulate runoff in the Lower Hunter for water security assessment', AMOS Annual Conference 2015 - Research to Community - Communicating our science, Brisbane, Australia (2015) [E3]
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2015 |
Parana Manage N, Lockart N, Willgoose GR, Kuczera G, Kiem AS, Chowdhury AFMK, 'Statistical validation of dynamically downscaled climate data for the Hunter Region of New South Wales, Australia', AMOS Annual Conference 2015 - Research to Community - Communicating our science, Brisbane, Australia (2015) [E3]
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2015 |
Chowdhury AFMK, Lockart N, Willgoose GR, Kuczera G, Parana Manage N, Kiem AS, 'A stochastic model for rainfall generation with long-term variability - calibration to NARCliM data at catchments with characteristic influence of East Coast Lows', AMOS Annual Conference 2015 - Research to Community - Communicating our science, Brisbane, Australia (2015) [E3]
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2015 |
Kiem AS, Twomey CR, Lockart N, Willgoose GR, Kuczera G, 'Spatial and temporal hydroclimatic variability in eastern Australia - quantifying the magnitude and spatial extent of East Coast Low (ECL) impacts', AMOS Annual Conference 2015 - Research to Community - Communicating our science, Brisbane, Australia (2015) [E3]
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2011 | Lockart NA, Kavetski DN, Franks SW, 'Hydro-climatological variability in the Murray-Darling Basin', Hydro-Climatology: Variability and Change, Melbourne, Australia (2011) [E1] | ||||||
2009 | Lockart NA, Kavetski DN, Franks SW, 'Misattribution of climate trends in the Murray Darling Basin', H2009: Proceedings of H2009, the 32nd Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, Newcastle, NSW (2009) [E1] | Nova | |||||
Show 12 more conferences |
Grants and Funding
Summary
Number of grants | 1 |
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Total funding | $65,000 |
Click on a grant title below to expand the full details for that specific grant.
20141 grants / $65,000
Estimating climate change induced changes to rainfall and runoff in NSW – Stage 2$65,000
Funding body: NSW Office of Environment and Heritage
Funding body | NSW Office of Environment and Heritage |
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Project Team | Professor Garry Willgoose, Doctor Natalie Lockart, Emeritus Professor George Kuczera |
Scheme | Research Grant |
Role | Investigator |
Funding Start | 2014 |
Funding Finish | 2014 |
GNo | G1400765 |
Type Of Funding | Other Public Sector - State |
Category | 2OPS |
UON | Y |
Research Supervision
Number of supervisions
Past Supervision
Year | Level of Study | Research Title | Program | Supervisor Type |
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2017 | PhD | Historical Variability of East Coast Lows (ECLS) and their Impact on Eastern Australia's Hydroclimate | PhD (Environmental Sc), College of Engineering, Science and Environment, The University of Newcastle | Co-Supervisor |
2017 | PhD | Development and Evaluation of Stochastic Rainfall Models for Urban Drought Security Assessment | PhD (Civil Eng), College of Engineering, Science and Environment, The University of Newcastle | Co-Supervisor |
Research Projects
Modelling climate change-driven human displacement in the Hunter region of NSW: An interdisciplinary assessment of risks and adaptation strategies 2017 -
The notion of climate change-induced displacement remains underexplored within the context of the developed world. This project will initiate an inquiry into climate change induced-displacement in Australia, using the Hunter Region of NSW as a case study. Cutting across conventional disciplinary boundaries, the project will draw on insights from engineering, information technology, law, public health and anthropology. By listening to the co-presence of diverse analytical perspectives, the researchers will seek collaborative moments driving new knowledge and a holistic understanding of risks and adaptation strategies in the context of climate change. Using climate models and projections of mobility and migration, the project will: (i) investigate how climate change may manifest within the lives of Hunter residents; (ii) assess risks of displacement; (iii) consider legal and logistical tools that are required to adapt to the projected climate reality; (iv) consider political tools for effective adaptation and mitigation; and (v) present a conceptual framework for understanding climate change induced displacement in the context of the Hunter, including how it relates to psychosocial and environmental distress.
Grants
Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Research and Innovation) Grant for Early Career Interdisciplinary Research
Funding body: The University of Newcastle - Research and Innovation Division
Funding body | The University of Newcastle - Research and Innovation Division |
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Scheme | Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Research and Innovation) Grant for Early Career Interdisciplinary Research |
Collaborators
Name | Organisation |
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Doctor Natalie Anne Lockart | University of Newcastle |
Doctor Hedda Haugen Askland | University of Newcastle |
Doctor Jane Louise Rich | University of Newcastle |
Associate Professor Raymond Jun Wen Chiong | University of Newcastle |
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Dr Natalie Lockart
Positions
Adjunct Lecturer
School of Engineering
College of Engineering, Science and Environment
Casual Academic
School of Engineering
College of Engineering, Science and Environment