US climate authority confirms University's El Nino prediction

Thursday 14 September 2006

A University of Newcastle researcher's prediction of a second El Nino has been confirmed by the leading US climate authority, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Associate Professor Stewart Franks, a hydroclimatologist at the University of Newcastle, said the confirmation by NOAA yesterday that a new El Nino has developed, as predicted by his research group, meant that Australia's ongoing drought may enter another more critical phase.

"The existing drought conditions means that any El Nino, weak or strong, will have significant impacts on agriculture. Water supply levels are already critically low in many parts of Australia and I expect that we may see much harsher water restrictions in practically all urban centres."

Despite fears of climate change, Associate Professor Franks insists that there is no reason to believe these El Nino cycles are affected by fossil fuel emissions.

"Our research has looked at the last 400 years of El Nino behaviour using Pacific-wide tree-ring and coral records. This clearly shows that the current sequence of El Nino events is not unusual, but will still have a devastating impact on Australia."

For media comment: Associate Professor Stewart Franks on 02 4921 6053.