Dire predictions of a second El Nino

Monday 21 August 2006

Drought-stricken Australia is likely to feel the devastating impact of a second El Nino by the end of the year according to new evidence uncovered by University of Newcastle hydroclimatologist Associate Professor Stewart Franks.

Associate Professor Franks' prediction of a second El Nino goes against the Bureau of Meteorology's assessment of neutral or average conditions.

"While the next few months will be critical, current indicators, including the anomalous warming in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean, are strongly pointing towards a second El Nino," Associate Professor Franks said.

"According to the latest evidence, we face a 67 per cent chance of an El Nino occurring by December. Similarly, the United States National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration has updated its forecast to a 50 per cent probability of at least a weak El Nino by the end of 2006."

Associate Professor Franks said while many areas of Eastern Australia had experienced rainfall over recent weeks, major water supplies had not been significantly replenished in advance of a possible El Nino event.

"The outlook is pretty grim - since 2002 we have waited for a cold La Nina event to refill the reservoirs. Unfortunately, with Sydney's reservoirs at only 40 per cent as a result of the last El Nino, we are still waiting," he said.

"The potential disruption to urban and rural areas of a second El Nino without fully recovering from our first experience is significant."

Associate Professor Franks' research has focused on developing techniques for predicting reservoir inflows for both Hunter Water Corporation and the Sydney Catchment Authority, as well as developing longer term insights into flood and drought risk in Australia.

For media comment: Associate Professor Stewart Franks on 02 4921 6053 or 02 4951 4530.